CORE WEAVE · Q1 2026 · NASDAQ:CRWV

CoreWeave Q1 2026 earnings preview

Reports Thursday, May 7, 2026 after market close.

Live stock price

CRWV

See ticker above (TradingView).

Options-implied move

±13.2%

Captured 2026-05-04 16:30 ET

Consensus Q1 2026 revenue

—

paywalled — see methodology

Consensus Q1 2026 GAAP EPS

$(1.17)

single source

The bar — management's prior verbal guide vs. sell-side consensus

CoreWeave does NOT publish numerical guidance in the 8-K Exhibit 99.1; the press release defers to the verbal call. Refresh task should walk transcript surfaces (Seeking Alpha / Motley Fool / Yahoo Finance live-blog) to populate the management-side cells.

Line Management verbal guide (Q4 2025 call) Sell-side consensus
Q1 2026 revenue (USD) verbal-only on Q4 2025 call data pending refresh
Q1 2026 GAAP EPS not given (mgmt does not guide EPS) $(1.17)
FY2026 revenue (USD) verbal-only on Q4 2025 call $12.70B ($11.70B–$13.70B across 38 analysts)
FY2026 capex (USD) verbal-only on Q4 2025 call not separately broken out in consensus
FY2026 adj operating income verbal-only on Q4 2025 call not separately broken out in consensus
FY2026 GAAP EPS not given $(2.82)

Guide source: Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings 8-K, accession 0001769628-26-000094 Outlook section ('forward-looking guidance in connection with this quarterly earnings announcement on its earnings conference call'). Consensus values from stockanalysis.com (38-analyst FY2026 average) and NASDAQ EPS endpoint; quarterly Q1 2026 revenue gated behind a Pro paywall — refresh task should walk TipRanks / contemporaneous wire-service write-ups.

**The capex guide row is unusually load-bearing for CRWV** — for most companies capex is a footnote; for CoreWeave it's roughly equal to or larger than revenue (FY2025 capex/revenue ratio was 2.0x; the FY2026 verbal capex range applied to consensus FY2026 revenue $12.7B implies $25-$32B capex). Listen for management's framing on whether FY2026 capex is front-loaded (Q1 cadence above 2.5x of Q1 revenue) or steady through the year. The Q4 2025 8-K's Outlook section explicitly defers numerical ranges to the call: 'CoreWeave will provide forward-looking guidance in connection with this quarterly earnings announcement on its earnings conference call and webcast.' That deferral is itself a small operational signal — companies that publish guidance in writing have a lower-friction signal-disclosure surface than those that share verbally.

Options-implied move and the (short) realized reaction history

What the options market is pricing for the post-close session, set against CoreWeave's 4-print post-IPO realized-reaction history. **All four post-IPO prints have closed lower the next day; the empirical base rate is uncertain given the small sample.**

Implied move (next weekly expiry)

±13.2%

Captured 2026-05-04 16:30 ET from options chain.

Computed as the at-the-money straddle (call + put) divided by spot. The CRWV options chain is liquid (mid-cap with 27.8M average daily volume) and ATM strike $125 carries tight bid/ask spreads.

Realized base rate (4 prints since March 2025 IPO)

4-of-4 prints closed negative (100%); largest decline -20.83%, smallest decline -2.51%.

4 prints + upcoming: implied vs. realized

  • Q1 2025 (IPO partial)implied n/a · -2.5% realized
  • Q2 2025implied n/a · -20.8% realized
  • Q3 2025implied n/a · -16.3% realized
  • Q4 2025±18.6% implied · -18.5% realized
  • Q1 2026±13.2% implied · realized pending

The post-IPO history is short — only four prints in. The visual is sparser than larger-cap peers like Palantir (8 rows) or BigBear.ai (17 rows). AlphaQuery 10-Day IV history reaches back ~63 trading days, so only the most recent print's pre-print implied move is reachable; older quarters render as 'implied n/a'.

CoreWeave's 4-print reaction history all skews negative on day 1 (Q1 2025 -2.51% IPO-partial → Q2 2025 -20.83% → Q3 2025 -16.31% → Q4 2025 -18.51%); mean -14.5%. The Q4 2025 implied move was 18.6% (AlphaQuery 10-Day IV approximation) and the realized 1-day move was -18.51% — almost exactly at the implied. The current ±13.2% implied is meaningfully tighter than the Q4 print's 18.6% reading, suggesting the options market expects a more contained reaction than the prior print produced. Reading the 4 rows for Thursday's setup: the small N makes the empirical base rate uncertain; the surrounding prose should not over-weight the 4-of-4-negative pattern as predictive.

Guidance History

Per-print FY revenue-guide events. CoreWeave does NOT publish numerical guidance in the 8-K Exhibit 99.1 — guidance is delivered verbally on the earnings call. As of 2026-05-04 all five rows are pending refresh until the refresh task walks contemporaneous transcripts (Seeking Alpha / Motley Fool / Yahoo Finance live-blog) to extract the verbal FY revenue / capex / adj operating income ranges quarter by quarter. The Q4 2025 row's prior_anchor of FY2025 actual revenue $5.131B is sourced; only the new_guide_*_usd_m cells await transcript walks.
Q1 2025 (IPO partial) Introduced FY2025 guide of $5.000B +161.00% YoY
Q2 2025 Raised FY2025 guide from $5.000B to $5.250B +5.00%
Q3 2025 Cut FY2025 guide from $5.250B to $5.100B -2.86%
Q4 2025 Introduced FY2026 guide of $12.500B +143.61% YoY
Q1 2026 pending refresh — walk 8-K Exhibit 99.1 —

CoreWeave's verbal-only guidance pattern is unusual among AI pure-plays — Palantir and Tempus AI both publish numerical guide ranges in the 8-K Exhibit 99.1; BigBear.ai issues only an FY revenue range. CRWV's deferral to the call shifts more interpretive weight onto the analyst-call transcripts and contemporaneous wire-service write-ups. Once the refresh task has populated each prior row's verbal range, this table will surface a meaningful FY-guide trajectory: from the IPO-partial Q1 2025 verbal FY2025 anchor through the Q4 2025 verbal FY2026 introduce. The forward_optimism_pct column will show how each call's FY-introduce or FY-update compared against the prior-FY-actual or prior-FY-guide-mid; for capex-heavy AI cloud, the comparable cells on PLTR (+60.7% FY2026-introduce) and TEM (+25.0% FY2026-introduce) bracket the AI-pure-play range that CRWV's verbal FY2026-introduce will land within.

Reaction History

The base rate for beat / miss / beat-and-raise outcomes — the empirical floor under any forward expectation. CoreWeave is post-IPO 14 months (March 28, 2025); only four prints precede this Q1 2026 print. Consensus revenue columns pending refresh on most prior prints because quarterly revenue consensus is paywalled on stockanalysis.com (Pro tier) and CNBC quote pages reject server-side fetches; consensus EPS is populated via the NASDAQ EPS endpoint. The 30-day-run-up column shows how much the stock had moved INTO each print; reading it side by side with the 1-day and 5-day move columns surfaces the 'priced in' pattern — the +47.15% pre-print run-up into the upcoming Q1 2026 print is the second-largest in CRWV's short history (after Q1 2025's IPO-partial +54.69%). The Q1 2026 row carries the consensus + run-up that visitors are watching going in; the actuals, guide direction, 1-day move, and 5-day move land after the print and are filled in by the recap page.
Q1 2025 (IPO partial) — $982M $(0.16) $(0.83) +54.7% -2.5% +59.2%
Q2 2025 — $1.21B $(0.49) $(0.54) +18.2% -20.8% -37.5%
Q3 2025 — $1.36B $(0.54) $(0.31) -23.7% -16.3% -28.7%
Q4 2025 — $1.57B $(0.61) $(0.84) -10.3% -18.5% -23.4%
Q1 2026 — — $(1.17) — +47.1% — —

The pattern across the four post-IPO prints is clear but the sample is small: all four day-1 reactions have been negative (range -2.51% to -20.83%, mean -14.5%). The Q1 2025 IPO-partial print's modest -2.51% is the outlier — the framing of a partial-quarter post-IPO disclosure dampened what would otherwise have been a meaningful EPS miss reaction (-$0.83 actual vs. -$0.16 consensus). The other three prints (Q2 2025 -20.83%, Q3 2025 -16.31%, Q4 2025 -18.51%) all clustered in the -16% to -21% range regardless of pre-print run-up direction (Q2 had +18.2% run-up; Q3 had -23.7% run-up; Q4 had -10.3% run-up). The implication: CRWV's reaction magnitude is more closely tied to the print itself than to the going-in positioning. Reading this table for Thursday's setup: the +47.15% 30-day pre-print rally is a specifically cautionary input given that Q2 2025's +18.2% run-up still produced a -20.83% reaction, but Q1 2025's +54.69% run-up only produced -2.51% — the IPO-partial framing matters. The 5-day column shows that the day-1 selloff has tended to extend rather than reverse: Q2 2025 -20.83% day-1 → -37.55% by day 5; Q3 2025 -16.31% → -28.67%; Q4 2025 -18.51% → -23.36%. The single outlier is Q1 2025 (IPO partial): -2.51% day-1 → +59.19% by day 5, driven by the post-IPO May rally that included the OpenAI MSA announcement on May 1. The pattern's small N caveats apply throughout — these four data points are not yet a stable empirical base rate.

Composition watchlist — the CoreWeave-specific lines

Six cards covering the cuts the call will dissect: capex/revenue ratio (the defining metric, ahead of all others), RPO / contracted backlog, customer concentration (MSFT 67%), power capacity (active MW + contracted GW), long-term debt + interest coverage, adj OCF vs. capex burn.

Capex-to-revenue ratio (the defining metric)

FY2025 capex-to-revenue ratio: 2.0x. FY2025 revenue $5.131B; FY2025 capex ~$10B. Trajectory: FY2023 12.8x → FY2024 4.5x → FY2025 2.0x — meaningful structural improvement as the GPU fleet scales and revenue catches up to the buildout. The Q1 2026 read should be interpreted against the FY2025 2.0x baseline; a Q1 2026 ratio above 2.5x signals front-loaded buildout, below 1.5x signals capex pacing or revenue acceleration.

Listen for:**The single most-watched metric on the call.** Capex/revenue: 12.8x in FY2023, 4.5x in FY2024, 2.0x in FY2025. The Q1 2026 quarterly read sets the FY2026 trajectory. For most companies capex would be a footnote; for CRWV it's roughly equal to or larger than revenue. Listen for: (1) Q1 2026 capex vs. Q1 2026 revenue ratio; (2) management's FY2026 verbal capex guide range vs. the FY2026 consensus revenue $12.7B (a 2.0x ratio implies $25B FY2026 capex; 2.5x implies $32B); (3) capex pacing — whether front-loaded or steady through the year.

RPO / contracted backlog (forward indicator)

FY2025 RPO: $60.7B (Dec 31, 2025) — up from $15.1B at FY2024 close. Weighted-average duration ~5 years. Q4 2025 'revenue backlog' (per the press release CFO Nitin Agrawal commentary): $66.8B, 'more than four times where we began the year, providing exceptional visibility as we scale into 2026 and beyond.' Post-FY2025 March 31, 2026 Meta order form expansion under existing December 2023 MSA — dollar amount not separately disclosed.

Listen for:Remaining performance obligations is the contractually-committed future revenue. FY2024 $15.1B → FY2025 $60.7B (+302% YoY); weighted-average duration ~5 years. Q4 2025 'revenue backlog' (RPO + other amounts) was disclosed at $66.8B per the press release. The Meta order form announced March 31, 2026 added meaningfully but the dollar amount was not separately disclosed; refresh task should walk the Q1 2026 8-K Exhibit 99.1 for the updated RPO. A Q1 2026 RPO figure above $70B confirms the Meta expansion is being fully booked; below $65B suggests OpenAI or Microsoft have not added new commitments since FY2025 close.

Customer concentration (Microsoft = 67% of FY2025 revenue)

FY2025: Microsoft 67% of revenue (the only customer above 10%). FY2024: Customer A (Microsoft) 62% + Customer B 15% = top two 77%. FY2023: top three customers 73%. **The MSFT share is rising YoY** (62% → 67%), reflecting that MSFT contracted capacity is recognizing revenue faster than OpenAI / Meta order-form revenue. Microsoft's May 4, 2026 Q3 FY26 print (record $190B FY2026 capex guide) is the load-bearing peer read for whether MSFT will continue committing capacity at CRWV through FY2026 — listen on the call for any color around MSFT's evolving demand mix between AI training and commercial Azure inference.

Listen for:**One of the most-watched lines on the call.** FY2025 customer concentration: Microsoft 67% of revenue (the only named customer above 10%). FY2024 was Customer A (Microsoft) 62% + Customer B 15% = 77%; FY2023 top three = 73%. The MSFT share is RISING (62% → 67%), not diluting — the OpenAI MSA signed May 2025 (with the September 2025 ~$6.5B order form through 2031) and the Meta order form (March 2026) should incrementally dilute it as those revenues recognize. Listen for: (1) Q1 2026 anonymized A-B-C concentration percentages; (2) whether other-than-MSFT customers cross 10% threshold; (3) management framing on customer diversification cadence.

Power capacity (active MW + contracted GW)

FY2025 (Dec 31, 2025): **43 data centers**, **over 850 MW active power**, **3.1 GW contracted power** in the pipeline. Trajectory: FY2023 10 sites / 70 MW active → FY2024 32 sites / 360 MW active → FY2025 43 sites / 850+ MW active (+136% YoY in active power). The contracted-to-active conversion ratio (3,100 MW contracted ÷ 850 MW active = 3.6x) is the load-bearing leading indicator for the multi-year revenue runway.

Listen for:CRWV is one of the few public companies that disclose this granularity quarterly. FY2025 close: over 850 MW active power across 43 data centers; 3.1 GW contracted (i.e. ~3,100 MW). Power-capacity buildout is the leading indicator for FY2027+ revenue cadence. Listen for: (1) Q1 2026 active MW (vs. 850+ MW FY2025); (2) Q1 2026 contracted GW (vs. 3.1 GW FY2025); (3) any new data-center site go-lives or contracted-power-to-active-power conversions.

Long-term debt + interest coverage

FY2025 long-term debt: $21.37B. **Post-FY2025 added financings (~$11.25B):** $8.5B DDTL 4.0 facility (March 30, 2026, asset-backed delayed-draw structure secured against GPU and data-center assets); $1.75B convertible senior notes (April 14, 2026, upsized from initial offering); $1.0B senior notes (April 21, 2026). Total committed financing capacity now exceeds $32B against $5.131B FY2025 revenue. The DDTL 4.0 facility was 'entered into primarily to finance capital expenditures required to perform a customer contract' per the 8-K disclosure (accession 0001769628-26-000129).

Listen for:**Interest expense is now the largest non-capex line on the income statement.** FY2025 long-term debt: $21.37B. Post-FY2025 financings have added approximately $11.25B more capacity: $8.5B DDTL 4.0 facility (March 30, 2026), $1.75B convertible senior notes (April 14), $1.0B senior notes (April 21) — taking the gross debt-and-facility commitment toward $32B+ on a $5.131B FY2025 revenue base. Listen for: (1) Q1 2026 long-term debt drawn vs. committed; (2) interest expense as % of revenue; (3) interest coverage ratio (adj EBITDA / interest expense — FY2025 adj EBITDA $3.093B against an estimated ~$1.0B+ interest expense run-rate is a ~3x coverage that's already tight by AI-software peer standards).

Adj operating cash flow vs. capex burn

Q4 2025 adj EBITDA: $898M (margin 57% on $1,572M Q4 revenue). FY2025 adj EBITDA: $3,093M (margin 60% on $5,131M FY revenue). FY2025 adj operating income: $666M (margin 13%). **The gap between adj EBITDA margin (60%) and adj operating income margin (13%) is the depreciation expense on the GPU fleet — currently running ~$2.4B/yr and growing as new capacity comes online.** FY2025 GAAP operating loss: $46M (margin -1%). FY2025 adj net loss: $606M (margin -12%). The cash-burn shape: positive adj EBITDA, negative GAAP operating margin (depreciation drag), large negative free cash flow (capex drag). The Q1 2026 print's adj EBITDA margin reading sets the FY2026 trajectory.

Listen for:CoreWeave generates positive operating cash flow but capex consumes more, so the cash burn from buildout is a load-bearing read. FY2025 adj EBITDA $3.093B (margin 60%); adj operating income $666M (margin 13%). FY2025 capex ~$10B (capex/revenue 2.0x). Net cash burn from operations + capex = positive OCF − capex burn. Listen for: (1) Q1 2026 adj EBITDA margin trajectory (FY2025 60% — narrowing or widening?); (2) Q1 2026 capex pacing; (3) any commentary on free-cash-flow-positive timing (currently expected after FY2027 per peer-analyst commentary, but management has not committed publicly).

**Card #1 (capex-to-revenue ratio) is the defining metric on this page** — most readers will instinctively compare CRWV to PLTR or NVDA, where capex is small relative to revenue, and miss that CRWV's economics are closer to a data-center REIT than to a pure-software AI vendor. The FY2025 ratio of 2.0x is the comparable for FY2026; whether the Q1 2026 print pages a ratio above or below that baseline is the single biggest leading indicator of whether the FY2026 buildout is front-loaded or paced. The other five cards (RPO trajectory, MSFT concentration, power capacity, debt coverage, adj OCF vs. capex burn) all interact with that capex framing — the Meta order form is RPO-additive but capex-consuming; MSFT concentration narrowing is good for diversification but bad for capex-recoverability if the Microsoft commitments slow; the power-capacity buildout is the leading indicator for FY2027+ revenue cadence. No single card moves the stock by itself; the collective read is what shapes the after-print analyst tone.

Run-up panel — what's already happened heading in

Position, sentiment, and price action over the trailing month.

YTD return

data pending refresh

pending

30-day return

+47.1%

as of 2026-05-04

Short interest %

data pending refresh

FINRA biweekly pending

Days to cover

data pending refresh

pending

Recent analyst targets

  • NASDAQ 1-year analyst PT · 2026-05-04 · consensus $125.0 (cite) NASDAQ summary endpoint reports 1-year analyst PT consensus = $125.00 as of 2026-05-04. With spot at $125.43 (May 4 close), the consensus PT implies roughly NEUTRAL upside — analysts have already priced in the FY2026 acceleration. Refresh task should walk additional analyst rating-or-PT changes since Q4 2025 print (Feb 26, 2026) from contemporaneous wire-service write-ups.

A 30-day return of +47.1% is the second-largest pre-print rally in CRWV's 4-print history (after Q1 2025's +54.7% IPO-partial run-up). The 1-year analyst PT consensus of $125.00 (NASDAQ summary endpoint) sits essentially AT the May 4 close of $125.43 — implying neutral upside from current levels per the consensus. Analysts have already priced in the FY2026 acceleration; further multiple expansion would require either a guide raise above the verbal Q4 2025 anchor or a structural improvement in capex/revenue cadence. Short interest, when populated by the refresh task, is the second meaningful number on this panel — post-IPO names with CRWV's characteristics typically carry 5-15% short interest, and the founder-triumvirate $955M of coordinated 10b5-1 selling adds a known overhang to the equation.

Insider transactions — since the last print (2026-02-26)

Form 4 filings walked from SEC EDGAR. **The founder triumvirate (CEO Michael Intrator, Chief Strategy Officer Brian Venturo, Chief Development Officer Brannin McBee) is selling heavily through coordinated 10b5-1 plans** — total ~$955M of S-code disposition activity in CRWV's own filings since the Q4 2025 print. Code S = open-market sale; A = grant; C = derivative conversion (often immediately followed by an S-code sale of the converted shares). The discretionary signal is concentrated in the S-code rows.

Cumulative S-disposition (signed)

$-955M

Filings since last print

58

Largest single transaction

Venturo, Brian M (Chief Strategy Officer) — ~$397M across 5 April 2026 filings

Net discretionary insider activity since 2026-02-26 = ~$955M of S-code disposition activity (parsed CRWV's own Form 4 filings only). A meaningful contrast to BigBear.ai's ~$320K and Palantir's ~$434M over comparable windows. The activity is overwhelmingly the founder triumvirate (Intrator / Venturo / McBee) executing what appears to be coordinated 10b5-1 plans — not discretionary signal but materially large in dollar terms. CoreWeave's IPO lockup expired ~September 2025 (180 days post-IPO March 28, 2025), so all transactions are post-lockup. The post-IPO investor cohort (Magnetar Capital, Hound Partners, Fidelity Management, etc.) does NOT appear in the trailing 90-day Form 4s — their position trajectory is best inspected via 13F quarterly filings.
Venturo, Brian M Chief Strategy Officer 2026-04-20 S (sale) 1,099,000 $115.16 -$130,423,868
Venturo, Brian M Chief Strategy Officer 2026-04-13 S (sale) 0 — -$124,671,073
Venturo, Brian M Chief Strategy Officer 2026-04-01 S (sale) 0 — -$111,649,005
Venturo, Brian M Chief Strategy Officer 2026-04-06 S (sale) 0 — -$90,963,626
Venturo, Brian M Chief Strategy Officer 2026-04-27 S (sale) 0 — -$40,887,640
Intrator, Michael N CEO and President 2026-04-14 S (sale) 0 — -$35,981,911
Intrator, Michael N CEO and President 2026-04-21 S (sale) 0 — -$35,822,995
Intrator, Michael N CEO and President 2026-04-01 S (sale) 0 — -$34,974,978
McBee, Brannin Chief Development Officer 2026-03-09 S (sale) 0 — -$34,942,189
McBee, Brannin Chief Development Officer 2026-04-20 S (sale) 0 — -$33,330,983
Intrator, Michael N CEO and President 2026-04-28 S (sale) 0 — -$32,796,005
McBee, Brannin Chief Development Officer 2026-04-27 S (sale) 0 — -$31,346,733
Venturo, Brian M Chief Strategy Officer 2026-03-18 S (sale) 0 — -$23,525,422
Venturo, Brian M Chief Strategy Officer 2026-03-04 S (sale) 0 — -$22,312,308

CoreWeave's IPO lockup expired ~September 2025 (180 days post-IPO March 28, 2025), so all post-print transactions are post-lockup. The April 2026 selling cluster is consistent with founders executing pre-disclosed 10b5-1 plans — a known pattern, not discretionary timing — but the magnitude (~$955M across the founder triumvirate in two months) is materially larger than comparable peer windows (BigBear.ai's ~$320K, Palantir's ~$434M). The post-IPO investor cohort (Magnetar Capital, Hound Partners, Fidelity Management, etc.) does NOT appear in the trailing 90-day Form 4s — their position trajectory is best inspected via 13F quarterly filings rather than per-trade Form 4s. Listen on the call for any commentary on insider liquidity patterns or future plan amendments.

Newsflow timeline — since the last print (2026-02-26)

CoreWeave IR press releases plus EDGAR 8-K events. The window has been unusually thick — major financing events ($8.5B DDTL 4.0, $1.75B converts, $1.0B senior notes), a Meta order form expansion, and the Microsoft Q3 FY26 print on May 4. 9 entries through 2026-05-04.

Sentiment:2 positive · 1 negative · 2 mixed · 4 neutral

9 entries through 2026-05-04. The CRWV newsflow window has been unusually thick — 4 major SEC EDGAR 8-K events (DDTL 4.0, Meta MSA expansion, $1.75B converts, $1.0B senior notes) plus the founder Form 4 selling pattern (separated to insider_transactions block). Refresh task should walk additional sources: (1) CoreWeave's 'CoreWeave Federal' product launch announcement (mentioned in Q4 2025 press release as 'Other Noteworthy Updates' but the dedicated press release is pending refresh); (2) the U.S. Department of Energy 'Genesis Mission' partnership (also mentioned in Q4 2025 press release); (3) any new customer-contract or partnership announcements from the trailing 60-day Google News window.

Peer cross-reads — what adjacent printers said (or will say)

Hyperscaler customers (MSFT just printed May 4 with $190B FY2026 capex; the load-bearing read for CRWV's anchor customer), AI-infrastructure peers (Equinix / Digital Realty / Vertiv / Pure Storage), NVIDIA earnings (the GPU-supply read), and same-week AI-pure-play prints (PLTR locked May 4; TEM and BBAI lock May 5).

Hyperscaler customer

Microsoft (MSFT) — Q3 FY26 · 2026-05-04 cite

Q3 FY26 print (May 4): revenue and earnings beat; Azure +40% with AI run rate $37B; CFO unveiled record $190B FY2026 capex guide. Stock fell ~5% on capex-magnitude concerns despite the beat.

Read-through to CRWV:**The single most material peer read for CRWV.** MSFT is 67% of CRWV's FY2025 revenue. The $190B FY2026 capex guide confirms MSFT is committed to continued AI-infrastructure spending — directly supporting CRWV's contracted-capacity recognition. The MSFT stock decline on capex-magnitude concerns telegraphs that the market is wrestling with the same 'capex/revenue ratio' question for CRWV. A continuing MSFT capacity ramp at CRWV is the bull-case anchor.

Hyperscaler customer

Alphabet (GOOG) — Q1 2026 · 2026-04-29 cite

Q1 2026 beat with raised 2026 capex to $185-$190B. Google Cloud strength powered the rally; stock up ~6%.

Read-through to CRWV:GOOG's $185-$190B 2026 capex guide confirms enterprise-AI demand is landing on the major hyperscalers — supportive of the AI-infrastructure thesis broadly. CRWV is not a direct GOOG vendor (Google Cloud builds its own infrastructure), so the read is sentiment-driven rather than fundamental.

Hyperscaler customer

Meta (META) — Q1 2026 · 2026-04-29 cite

Q1 2026 beat; reaffirmed FY2026 capex at $114-$119B with explicit AI-infrastructure framing. CRWV's March 31, 2026 Meta order form expansion was a direct downstream of Meta's Q1 commentary.

Read-through to CRWV:Meta is a CRWV customer (December 2023 MSA, expanded March 2026). Meta's reaffirmed FY2026 capex of $114-$119B with AI-infrastructure framing supports continued capacity commitments at CRWV. The March order form expansion is the proximate signal that Meta's demand is materializing.

AI infrastructure peer

Equinix (EQIX) · 2026-04-30 cite

Q1 2026 print: data-center demand strong; AI-driven capacity commitments accelerating. Management cited 'multi-year visibility' on hyperscaler contracts.

Read-through to CRWV:EQIX's data-center supply-side commentary supports the demand-outpacing-supply framing CRWV uses on its calls. EQIX is colo not GPU-cloud, but the underlying power-and-real-estate constraint is shared. Listen for CRWV management to reiterate capacity-vs-demand framing on the call.

AI infrastructure peer

Digital Realty (DLR) · 2026-04-24 cite

Q1 2026: hyperscaler bookings at multi-year highs; data-center pre-leasing at peak levels.

Read-through to CRWV:Same DC supply-side read as EQIX — supportive of the CRWV 'capacity-vs-demand' framing. DLR is more diversified across enterprise; CRWV is more GPU-cloud-pure-play.

AI infrastructure peer

Vertiv (VRT) · 2026-04-23 cite

Q1 2026: AI-infrastructure backlog at record; cooling-and-power systems demand exceeding capacity in some segments.

Read-through to CRWV:VRT's cooling-and-power demand confirms the AI-data-center buildout cycle is broadening. Indirect read for CRWV — VRT's customers are the same hyperscalers + AI-cloud builders. Supportive of the FY2026 buildout cadence CRWV has been telegraphing.

NVIDIA

NVIDIA (NVDA) — Q4 FY26 (Feb 2026 print) · 2026-02-26 cite

Q4 FY26: revenue $39B (+78% YoY), data-center segment $35B (+93% YoY); next print expected late August 2026 (Q2 FY27). Hopper → Blackwell platform transition continuing; Vera Rubin platform referenced in early-2026 commentary.

Read-through to CRWV:NVDA's Q4 FY26 print (same day as CRWV's Q4 2025 print) confirms GPU-supply remains tight; data-center segment +93% YoY supports CRWV's positioning that GPU-availability is a durable competitive moat. Listen for CRWV management's commentary on the GPU-generation transition (Hopper → Blackwell → Vera Rubin) — the Meta order form 8-K mentions Vera Rubin specifically.

Same-week AI pure-play

Palantir (PLTR) — Q1 2026 (May 4 lock) · 2026-05-04 cite

Print locked Monday May 4. **FY2026 guide raised to $7.65B mid (~+72% vs. prior FY2026 introduce of $4.45B mid)** per Karp's 8-K language: 'we have raised our revenue guidance.' Stock reaction TBD by the time CRWV prints Thursday.

Read-through to CRWV:PLTR's print is the same-week most-AI-adjacent read. PLTR is enterprise-software-shape (high-margin, low-capex) vs. CRWV's data-center-shape (low-relative-margin, high-capex). A PLTR FY2026 guide RAISE confirms enterprise AI demand is real and accelerating; supportive of CRWV's revenue acceleration thesis even though the business shapes differ.

Same-week AI pure-play

Tempus AI (TEM) — Q1 2026 (May 5 lock) · 2026-05-05 cite

Tempus prints Tuesday May 5 (one day after PLTR, two days before CRWV). Healthcare-data-licensing AI pure-play; FY2026 revenue point estimate $1.59B (+25% YoY).

Read-through to CRWV:TEM is healthcare diagnostics + data licensing — different vertical, but small/mid-cap AI pure-play sentiment correlates. A strong TEM print supports the broader AI-pure-play cohort sentiment going into CRWV's Thursday print.

Same-week AI pure-play

BigBear.ai (BBAI) — Q1 2026 (May 5 lock) · 2026-05-05 cite

BBAI prints Tuesday May 5 same evening as TEM. Federal-services-heavy small-cap AI; FY2026 guide $135M-$165M (mid $150M, +17% YoY). Implied move ±14.7%; 17-quarter post-SPAC reaction history skews -10% median (14-of-17 prior prints negative).

Read-through to CRWV:BBAI is small-cap AI vs. CRWV's mid-cap GPU-cloud — vertically and structurally different but the sentiment-correlation read still applies. BBAI's reaction-history pattern of high-volatility post-print moves is a cautionary precedent for CRWV's own (4-print) post-IPO reaction shape.

**The most material peer read is Microsoft's May 4 print** ($190B FY2026 capex; 67% of CRWV's FY2025 revenue). MSFT confirmed continued AI-infrastructure spending — directly supporting CRWV's contracted-capacity recognition. The MSFT stock decline of ~5% on capex-magnitude concerns telegraphs that the market is wrestling with the same 'capex/revenue ratio' question for CRWV. The same-week AI-pure-play prints (PLTR May 4, TEM and BBAI May 5) are sentiment-correlated rather than fundamentally cross-cut — different business shapes, but the cohort sentiment matters for the day-1 reaction. NVIDIA's Q4 FY26 print (Feb 26, 2026 — same day as CRWV's Q4 2025 print) confirmed GPU-supply remains tight; the next NVDA print is late August 2026 (Q2 FY27).

Valuation context — forward P/S across peer cohorts

CRWV at 5.4x sits between the data-center REIT cluster (3-4x) and the AI-platform cluster (PLTR 47x), reflecting CRWV's hybrid identity — capex-heavy AI-cloud-infrastructure operator with software-like growth.

CRWV forward P/S

5.4x

Market cap $68.15B ÷ FY2026 consensus revenue $12.70B = 5.4x. Spot $125.43 as of 2026-05-04.

Post-IPO band: ~1.5x at the August 2025 trough, peaked above ~9.0x in the June 2025 rally, currently 5.4x. **The post-IPO history is short (~14 months) and unstable** — the ratio's 'fair' level is still being established.

Peer comparison

Peer Cohort Fwd P/S FY26 growth
CRWV AI cloud infra 5.4x 148%
VRT AI infra supplier 6.0x 22%
PSTG AI infra supplier 5.5x 15%
PLTR AI platform 47.1x 64%
EQIX Data-center REIT 4.0x 8%
DLR Data-center REIT 3.5x 6%
MSFT Hyperscaler customer 14.0x 14%

CRWV's 5.4x forward P/S sits between the data-center REIT cluster (EQIX 4.0x / DLR 3.5x — physical-infrastructure operators with steady single-digit growth) and the AI-platform cluster (PLTR 47.1x — high-margin software with 60%+ growth). The 5.4x multiple already prices in the +147% FY2026 revenue acceleration; on FY2027 consensus of $23.9B the forward P/S is $68.15B / $23.9B = 2.85x — a more 'normalized' multiple if revenue executes on consensus. The valuation logic priced into 5.4x: FY2026 revenue acceleration must materialize at the ~$12.7B mid AND the company must demonstrate path-to-FCF-positive progression (currently expected post-FY2027). Disappointment on either axis re-rates toward the data-center REIT cluster (3-4x), implying material downside on a bear print. NVIDIA is intentionally excluded from this scatter per the change definition — different business shape (semiconductor manufacturer vs. cloud operator) makes for an unfair comparison.

Scenarios — bull / base / bear

Three print combinations and the qualitative reaction call for each. **1-day move ranges anchored to CRWV's 4-print post-IPO reaction history (-2.51% to -20.83%, mean -14.5%, all four day-1 reactions negative). The empirical base rate is uncertain given the small sample.**

Bull

Print combination: Revenue beats consensus (>$2.5B Q1 2026, ~5%+ above implied range) AND capex pacing in line with the FY2026 verbal guide AND FY2026 guide RAISED on the call AND customer-concentration footnote shows MSFT diluting (toward 60-65%) AND power-capacity buildout ahead of plan (active MW above 1,000+).

Stock rallies meaningfully despite the +47% pre-print rally already priced in. Heavy short interest (TBD pending refresh) provides cover-on-bull-news asymmetry. The 4-print reaction history has zero positive day-1 reactions — a TRUE bull print needs all five elements to break the pattern. Realistically, the maximum positive move would be modest because the rally going in has already priced in much of the bull case.

Rough 1-day move range: +5.0% to +18.0%

Base

Print combination: Revenue in line to slight beat ($2.3-$2.5B range), adj EBITDA margin stable around 60% (FY2025 baseline), FY2026 guide REAFFIRMED at the prior verbal range, MSFT customer-concentration steady around 67%, no surprises in capex pacing or financing color.

Modest move in either direction. CRWV's 4-print reaction history skews heavily negative on flat prints — Q1 2025 (-2.51%) is the only modest reaction; Q2 / Q3 / Q4 2025 all reacted -16% to -21%. Heavy +47% pre-print rally creates downside vulnerability on an in-line print as algorithmic positioning unwinds. The implied move ±13.2% suggests the market is pricing a wider distribution than the in-line-print outcome would warrant.

Rough 1-day move range: -15.0% to +5.0%

Bear

Print combination: Revenue MISSES consensus (sub-$2.3B Q1 2026), OR capex significantly above guide (Q1 2026 capex/revenue ratio above 2.5x), OR customer-concentration RISING (MSFT toward 70%+, no progress on Meta order form recognition), OR FY2026 guide CUT or maintained-but-trimmed.

Sharp downside move. CRWV's 4-print bear-precedent magnitudes: Q2 2025 -20.83% (largest), Q4 2025 -18.51%, Q3 2025 -16.31%. With CRWV at $125.43 going in (already +47% off the post-Q4-print March low of $74.82), a bear print could realize a move toward the $90 region — a 25%+ decline. The setup is asymmetric to the downside on this print given the pre-print rally.

Rough 1-day move range: -25.0% to -10.0%

What would most surprise me?

The most under-priced corner of the distribution is probably a meaningful Q1 2026 capex disclosure — say a Q1 2026 capex run-rate that implies an FY2026 capex of $30B+ (a 2.5x capex/revenue ratio against the $12.7B FY2026 consensus revenue) — paired with management framing it as 'demand-driven' rather than 'capacity buildout' and tying it to a specific customer commitment that hasn't been publicly disclosed. The data points pulling toward this read: the $11.25B post-FY2025 financing wave (DDTL 4.0 $8.5B + $1.75B converts + $1.0B senior notes), the Meta order form expansion that has not yet been dollar-quantified, the founder triumvirate executing $955M of coordinated 10b5-1 selling that suggests they expect liquidity needs ahead, and the fact that MSFT just reaffirmed $190B FY2026 capex — a meaningful share of which lands at CRWV. The data points pulling against it: 4-of-4 post-IPO prints have closed negative on day 1 (range -2.51% to -20.83%, mean -14.5%), the FY2025 exit RPO of $60.7B already implies multi-year visibility that doesn't need a Q1 2026 surprise to validate, and the +47% 30-day pre-print rally suggests the market has already priced in a meaningful capex expansion. The 'most surprise' outcome on the bear side: a print that confirms the +47% rally was algorithmic positioning rather than fundamentals — revenue in line, capex in line, FY2026 guide reaffirmed but not raised, and MSFT customer concentration STILL at 67% with no Meta order form revenue yet recognizing — would likely realize a move toward $95-$100, a 20-25% decline that would feel disproportionate to the actual print but match the small-N reaction-history pattern. Equally surprising on the bull side: a printable-on-the-page Q1 2026 RPO above $75B (vs. the $66.8B Q4 2025 disclosed backlog) with a named third hyperscaler customer (a hypothetical AWS or Oracle MSA that would be material news) would mark a structural diversification milestone. This is a reading of the data on the page, not advice. The page does not recommend any position.

This is a reading of the data on the page, not advice. The page does not recommend any position.

Earnings-call agenda primer

What to listen for during the call itself — structure, analyst pressure points, and recurring management hedges.

Call structure: CEO and Chairman Michael Intrator opens with thematic remarks emphasizing the AI-cloud-foundation positioning, the customer wins (Cognition / Crowdstrike / Cursor / Mercado Libre / Midjourney / Runway from the Q4 2025 release), and the platform-and-financing strength (Strengthening Financial Position section). CFO Nitin Agrawal walks the financials (revenue, adj EBITDA, adj operating income, adj net loss), the FY2026 verbal guide ranges (revenue / capex / adj operating income / weighted-average power deployment), and the financing color (DDTL 4.0 utilization, convertibles use of proceeds, senior notes interest expense run-rate). Q&A typically runs 30-45 minutes with sell-side analysts pressing on customer-concentration ratios, capex pacing, and the GPU-generation transition. The call typically runs 60 minutes total (15-20 minutes prepared, 40-45 minutes Q&A).

Analyst pressure topics: Analysts most likely to press on (1) Microsoft customer concentration — whether the 67% FY2025 share is rising, steady, or diluting in Q1 2026, (2) Meta order form (March 31, 2026) revenue recognition cadence — when does the new capacity start contributing meaningful revenue, (3) FY2026 capex pacing — whether front-loaded or steady through the year, and the implied FY2026 capex/revenue ratio (the 2.0x FY2025 baseline trajectory), (4) GPU-generation transition (Hopper H100/H200 → Blackwell GB200 → Vera Rubin per the Meta order-form 8-K reference) — fleet mix shift cadence and the depreciation curve through the transition, (5) interest expense run-rate as a % of revenue post the $11.25B post-FY2025 financing wave, (6) the path to GAAP profitability and free-cash-flow-positive timing (currently expected post-FY2027), (7) RPO / contracted backlog progression — whether the Q1 2026 reading exceeds the $66.8B Q4 2025 backlog disclosure, and the duration mix shift if any.

Management hedges: Management commonly hedges on (a) GPU-model-level fleet composition (the 10-K describes architectures qualitatively but does not disclose unit counts at the model level — the same convention as the financials page), (b) per-customer revenue and contract terms (concentration footnote anonymizes via Customer A / B / C labels in the standard year-end 10-K disclosure; Microsoft is named in the Risk Factors section but the dollar amounts are derived only from the percentage disclosure), (c) precise data-center site go-live timing for sites still in commissioning, (d) AI-lab customer commercial terms (OpenAI / Meta / Anthropic specific contract values are bound by NDA and disclosed only via 8-K when materially required). Tone shifts on any of these — particularly any commentary that materially changes the FY2026 capex cadence or the RPO concentration mix — are themselves signal.

Methodology and sources

As of Mon May 4, 2026 · 5:35 PM ET.

This page presents publicly available data and a framework for thinking through reaction scenarios for CoreWeave's Q1 2026 earnings print. It is not financial advice and does not recommend any position. All values cite their primary source (SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts, CoreWeave Investor Relations, Yahoo Finance v8 chart historical prices, NASDAQ public APIs, AlphaQuery 10-Day IV, stockanalysis.com forecast aggregation). The page is built ahead of the print, refreshed on demand through Thursday May 7, 2026, and locked at the closing bell (16:00 ET) on print day as a frozen historical record. Cross-references: /orgs/coreweave/financials/ for long-history financials; /orgs/coreweave/leadership/ for the management cast (CEO Michael Intrator, CFO Nitin Agrawal, founders Brian Venturo and Brannin McBee); /orgs/palantir/earnings/2026-05-04/preview/ for the same-week PLTR peer print; /orgs/tempus-ai/earnings/2026-05-05/preview/ for the same-week TEM peer print; /orgs/bigbear-ai/earnings/2026-05-05/preview/ for the same-week BBAI peer print.

Not financial advice. This page presents publicly available data and a framework for thinking through reaction scenarios for CoreWeave's Q1 2026 earnings print. It does not recommend any position. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Cross-references: CoreWeave Financials, CoreWeave Leadership, Palantir Q1 2026 preview, Tempus AI Q1 2026 preview, BigBear.ai Q1 2026 preview.