BIGBEAR.AI · Q1 2026 · NYSE:BBAI
BigBear.ai Q1 2026 earnings preview
Reports Tuesday, May 5, 2026 after market close.
Live stock price
BBAI
See ticker above (TradingView).
Options-implied move
—
public options chain not surfacing BBAI
Consensus Q1 2026 revenue
$33.6M
3 analysts (Zacks)
Consensus Q1 2026 GAAP EPS
$(0.08)
3 analysts (Zacks)
The bar — management's prior guide vs. sell-side consensus
BigBear.ai guides only full-year revenue, leaving sell-side consensus as the sole bar for the quarterly print.
| Line | Management guide (Q4 2025 8-K) | Sell-side consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 revenue (USD) | not given (mgmt only guides FY revenue) | $33.6M ($29.5M–$38.2M across 3 analysts) |
| Q1 2026 GAAP EPS | not given (mgmt does not guide EPS) | $(0.08) ($(0.05)–$(0.06) across 3 analysts) |
| FY2026 revenue (USD) | $135.0M – $165.0M (mid $150M, +17.5% YoY) | $144.5M ($137.6M–$152.4M across 2 aggregators) |
| FY2026 adj EBITDA | not given (mgmt does not guide adj EBITDA) | not separately broken out in consensus |
| FY2026 GAAP EPS | not given | $(0.31) ($(0.51)–$(0.18) across 2 aggregators) |
Guide source: Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings 8-K, accession 0001836981-26-000016. Consensus values from Zacks (3 analysts on quarterly cells) and stockanalysis.com (5 analysts on annual cells); when aggregators differ beyond ±1% revenue / ±$0.01 EPS, median + analyst range surfaced.
Notice that consensus implies a Q1 2026 revenue DECLINE of ~3% YoY ($33.6M vs. $34.76M Q1 2025) — the Street is positioning around the Q4 2025 'lower volume on Army programs' headwind continuing into Q1. Mgmt's FY2026 revenue guide of $135M-$165M (mid $150M, +17.5% YoY) sits ABOVE consensus FY2026 of $144.5M — i.e. mgmt is more optimistic than the Street about the back-half acceleration. The print's most-watched line is therefore: does mgmt reaffirm the FY26 guide ($150M mid) when reporting a Q1 that consensus says will be weak?
Options-implied move and the realized reaction history
What the options market is pricing for the post-close session, set against the 17-quarter post-SPAC realized-reaction history. **BBAI's realized reactions skew heavily negative — 14 of 17 prints have closed lower the next day.**
Implied move (next weekly expiry)
—
public options chain not surfacing BBAI; see methodology footer for diagnostic
Computed as the at-the-money straddle (call + put) divided by spot. NB: BBAI's options chain is materially thinner than larger AI peers — the public NASDAQ options API returns 'Options are not available for this symbol' as of the most recent build attempt. The page surfaces the implied-move cell as 'pending refresh' rather than fabricating a value (per the data-pending-refresh-is-last-resort hard rule with small-cap-specific fallback discipline).
Realized base rate (17 quarters since Dec 2021 SPAC)
14-of-17 prints closed negative (82%); largest decline -31.65%, largest gain +6.13%.
17 quarters: implied vs. realized
- Q4 2021implied n/a · -22.3% realized
- Q1 2022implied n/a · -2.8% realized
- Q2 2022implied n/a · -27.0% realized
- Q3 2022implied n/a · +2.0% realized
- Q4 2022implied n/a · -18.0% realized
- Q1 2023implied n/a · -14.1% realized
- Q2 2023implied n/a · -10.2% realized
- Q3 2023implied n/a · -4.5% realized
- Q4 2023implied n/a · -31.6% realized
- Q1 2024implied n/a · -13.9% realized
- Q2 2024implied n/a · -4.3% realized
- Q3 2024implied n/a · -9.7% realized
- Q4 2024implied n/a · -20.5% realized
- Q1 2025implied n/a · +0.6% realized
- Q2 2025implied n/a · -15.8% realized
- Q3 2025implied n/a · +6.1% realized
- Q4 2025implied n/a · -7.3% realized
Implied-vs-realized history not archived for older prints — the same options-data reachability constraint that gates the current implied move applies historically. Realized 1-day moves are computed from Yahoo Finance free historical close data.
BBAI carries a much wider realized-reaction distribution than larger-cap peers. The 17-quarter median is roughly -10%; the worst print (Q4 2023, -31.65%) and the best (Q3 2025, +6.13%) define the historical envelope. Even a 'modest' miss has often realized -15% to -25%; even a 'good' beat-and-raise rarely realizes more than +10%. The asymmetry skews bearish.
Post-SPAC reaction history (17 quarters since Dec 2021)
The base rate for beat / miss / beat-and-raise outcomes — the empirical floor under any forward expectation. Consensus columns pending refresh (small-cap aggregator coverage doesn't expose historical pre-print consensus on free public surfaces; refresh task should walk contemporaneous CNBC/Reuters/TipRanks pre-earnings write-ups quarter-by-quarter).
| Quarter | Reported | Cons. rev | Actual rev | Cons. EPS | Actual EPS | Guide | 1-day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | 2022-03-17 | — | — | — | — | — | -22.3% |
| Q1 2022 | 2022-05-09 | — | — | — | — | — | -2.8% |
| Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | — | — | — | — | — | -27.0% |
| Q3 2022 | 2022-11-09 | — | — | — | — | — | +2.0% |
| Q4 2022 | 2023-03-13 | — | — | — | — | — | -18.0% |
| Q1 2023 | 2023-05-09 | — | — | — | — | — | -14.1% |
| Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | — | — | — | — | — | -10.2% |
| Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | — | — | — | — | — | -4.5% |
| Q4 2023 | 2024-03-07 | — | — | — | — | — | -31.6% |
| Q1 2024 | 2024-05-02 | — | — | — | — | — | -13.9% |
| Q2 2024 | 2024-08-01 | — | — | — | — | — | -4.3% |
| Q3 2024 | 2024-11-05 | — | — | — | — | — | -9.7% |
| Q4 2024 | 2025-03-06 | — | $43.8M | — | $(0.55) | — | -20.5% |
| Q1 2025 | 2025-05-01 | — | $34.8M | — | — | — | +0.6% |
| Q2 2025 | 2025-08-11 | — | $32.5M | — | — | — | -15.8% |
| Q3 2025 | 2025-11-10 | — | — | — | — | — | +6.1% |
| Q4 2025 | 2026-03-02 | — | $27.3M | — | $(0.01) | FY2026 initial guide $135M-$165M (mid $150M, +17.5% YoY) | -7.3% |
The pattern across 17 prints is clear: BigBear.ai has had only three positive 1-day post-print reactions since the December 2021 SPAC merger (Q3 2022 +1.98%, Q1 2025 +0.60%, Q3 2025 +6.13%). The remaining 14 closed negative, with the worst at -31.65% (Q4 2023). Reading this table for Tuesday's setup: the realized-reaction distribution skews heavily negative even on quarters when fundamentals were arguably fine, suggesting the small-cap-AI cohort's reaction asymmetry punishes flat prints harder than it rewards beats.
Composition watchlist — the BigBear.ai-specific lines
Six cards covering the cuts the call will dissect: U.S. government concentration, multi-component contract backlog, customer concentration, acquisition integration, GAAP loss + SBC, adj EBITDA breakeven path.
U.S. government revenue concentration
Q4 2025: revenue $27.3M, down 38% YoY (from $43.8M Q4 2024) primarily due to lower volume on Army programs. FY2025: revenue $127.7M, down 19% YoY from $158.2M. Mgmt characterized FY2025 as 'reset year' before 2026 acceleration. The U.S. government share is not separately disclosed in the press release — refresh task should pull the 10-K for the exact split.
Listen for:Whether the Q1 2026 print confirms the 'lower volume on Army programs' headwind that pulled Q4 2025 revenue down 38% YoY. The U.S. government share of revenue is the single most-watched concentration metric — historically 90%+ of total. A meaningful diversification (Middle East AD Ports expansion, commercial Pangiam wins) would be the biggest qualitative shift; reaffirmation of Army-program softness would cement the bear thesis.
Multi-component contract backlog (Funded / Unfunded / Priced options / Unpriced options)
most recent value pending refreshListen for:**The single most load-bearing metric for this print.** BBAI discloses backlog in four components in the 10-K. FY2024 total backlog was reported at $418M (peak); FY2025 reported approximately $248M (trough). The Q1 2026 print's backlog disclosure (typically in the shareholder letter or 10-Q) is the leading indicator for FY2026 revenue cadence. A material rebuild — particularly in Funded backlog — would be the strongest positive surprise the print could produce. A continued decline would compound the Army-program headwind.
Customer concentration (anonymized A-F table)
most recent value pending refreshListen for:BBAI discloses individual customer revenue concentration in the 10-K with anonymized labels (Customer A through F). Each named customer is typically a federal agency or a prime contractor. The Q1 2026 print's commentary on which named-but-anonymous customer drove which line is itself a signal — a shift in the top-customer concentration toward newer customers (e.g. AD Ports' UAE work or commercial wins via Pangiam/Ask Sage) would diversify the revenue base; concentration deepening on Army programs would reinforce the headwind.
Pangiam + Ask Sage + CargoSeer integration progress
Q4 2025: $53.4M impairment of long-lived assets, $70.6M goodwill impairment ($124M aggregate). FY2024 had $85.0M goodwill impairment. Total goodwill on balance sheet 2025-12-31: $241.1M (up from $119.1M in 2024 — net of impairments, reflecting the Ask Sage acquisition adding goodwill). Intangible assets net: $139.5M (up from $119.1M). Mgmt: 'Closed acquisitions of Ask Sage (December 2025), and CargoSeer (January 2026)... positions the Company for solid growth in 2026.' AD Ports Group strategic partnership announced 2026-01-28 (Middle East expansion).
Listen for:Three acquisitions in active integration: Pangiam (closed Feb 29, 2024 — biometrics/digital identity), Ask Sage (closed Dec 2025 — generative AI for federal customers; largest acquisition in BBAI history), CargoSeer (closed Jan 2026 — most recent). FY2025 carried $70.6M of goodwill impairment plus $53.4M of long-lived asset impairment ($124M aggregate non-cash impairment) — the question of further impairments is live. Listen for: (1) integration-cost tail in operating expenses; (2) named contract wins attributable to each acquired entity; (3) any updated goodwill or intangible-asset carrying-value commentary.
GAAP operating loss + SBC trajectory
Q4 2025: operating loss $80.5M (margin -295%, dominated by $53.4M impairment); ex-impairment $27.1M (margin -99%). FY2025: operating loss $213.9M (margin -167%); ex-impairments ($53.4M long-lived + $70.6M goodwill = $124M) underlying loss ~$90M (margin -70%). Net loss FY2025: $293.9M (basic/diluted EPS $(0.82)). Adj EBITDA Q4 2025: $(10.3)M (vs. $2.0M Q4 2024) — adj EBITDA went from positive to negative on the Army-program softness.
Listen for:BBAI's path to GAAP breakeven remains far. FY2025 operating loss was $213.9M on $127.7M revenue (operating margin -167%). Even excluding $124M of one-time impairments, underlying operating loss was ~$90M. SBC (stock-based compensation) is the recurring small-cap-AI bear-case talking point — listen for SBC as % of revenue and the trajectory through FY2026.
Adj EBITDA margin trajectory toward breakeven
Q4 2025 adj EBITDA: $(10.3)M, margin -38% (vs. +$2.0M, +5% margin Q4 2024). FY2025 adj EBITDA not directly disclosed in the press release; refresh task should pull from the supplemental schedule or 10-K. The FY2024 adj EBITDA was modestly positive — the FY2025 swing to negative is the central concern. Mgmt did not issue an FY2026 adj-EBITDA guide; only revenue is guided ($135M-$165M).
Listen for:Mgmt has been signaling toward adj EBITDA breakeven. The actual cadence is the headline question. Q4 2025 adj EBITDA was -$10.3M (margin -38%), a meaningful step DOWN from Q4 2024's +$2.0M. The Q1 2026 print's adj EBITDA reading sets the tone for whether the FY2026 17% revenue growth at the midpoint translates into operating leverage or the mix-shift drag continues.
No single one of these moves the stock by itself, but the collective read — particularly the four-component backlog disclosure and the acquisition-integration commentary — is what shapes the after-print analyst tone. Listen for whether management foregrounds the strongest line (cash + investments at $462M, AD Ports Middle East expansion) or hedges around the weakest (Army-program softness recurring, Pangiam goodwill).
Run-up panel — what's already happened heading in
Position, sentiment, and price action over the trailing month.
YTD return
-29.1%
as of 2026-05-01
30-day return
+21.1%
as of 2026-05-01
Short interest %
FINRA settlement pending refresh
BBAI typically 8-15%
Days to cover
data pending refresh
Recent analyst targets
- stockanalysis.com aggregated rating · 2026-03-03 · consensus rating $5.5 (cite) Average analyst price target $5.50 (low $5.00, high $6.00, median $6.00) per stockanalysis.com / Benzinga aggregation last updated 2026-03-03. Consensus rating: 'Buy.' Recent 12-month rating distribution: Strong Buy 1, Buy ~3, Hold ~2, Sell 0. Implies +33% upside from May 1 close $4.14.
- NASDAQ 1-year analyst PT · 2026-05-01 · consensus $5.0 (cite) NASDAQ summary endpoint reports 1-year analyst PT consensus = $5.00 as of 2026-05-01 (slightly below the stockanalysis.com aggregation; NASDAQ may aggregate a different broker mix).
A YTD return of -29.1% alongside a 30-day return of +21.1% means the stock has rallied sharply into the print after the post-Q4 weakness — exactly the setup that's most vulnerable to a small disappointment. The 1-year analyst PT consensus of $5.00-$5.50 implies +20% to +33% upside from the May 1 close, but that consensus reflects a forward outlook on FY26 acceleration rather than a near-term Q1 catalyst. Short interest, when populated by the refresh task, is the second meaningful number on this panel — BBAI historically carries 8-15% short interest, materially above mega-cap AI peers, creating cover-on-bull-news asymmetry.
Insider transactions — since the last print (2026-03-02)
Form 4 filings walked from SEC EDGAR. Code S = open-market sale; A = grant; F = RSU-vesting tax withholding (auto-executed, low signal). The discretionary signal is concentrated in the S-code rows.
Cumulative discretionary sales (signed)
$-320K
Filings since last print
9
Largest single transaction
Braden, Pamela (Director) — $320K, 2026-03-16
Net discretionary insider activity since Mar 2 2026 = ~$320K of sales (1 sale across 1 filing). A meaningful contrast to Palantir's ~$434M of disposals over the same window. The activity profile is overwhelmingly compensation/equity-grant flow rather than discretionary signal — F-code RSU-vesting tax withholdings dominate the count. AE Industrial Partners (the post-2020-roll-up large holder) does NOT appear in the trailing 90 days of Form 4 filings; their position trajectory is best inspected via 13F quarterly filings rather than per-trade Form 4s. Refresh task should parse the two unparsed filings (2026-03-04, 2026-03-06) and walk Form 4s back to 2026-02-02 for full pre-print 90-day coverage.
| Owner | Role | Tx date | Code | Shares | Price | $ signed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden, Pamela Joyce | Director | 2026-03-16 | S (sale) | 80,000 | $4.00 | -$320,000 |
| McAleenan, Kevin | CEO | 2026-04-01 | F (tax withholding) | 39,424 | $3.52 | — |
| Ricker, Sean Raymond | CFO | 2026-04-01 | F (tax withholding) | 10,665 | $3.52 | — |
| Blankenship, Carolyn | General Counsel | 2026-04-01 | F (tax withholding) | 13,649 | $3.52 | — |
| McAleenan, Kevin | CEO | 2026-03-26 | A (grant) | 290,730 | — | — |
| Ricker, Sean Raymond | CFO | 2026-03-26 | A (grant) | 122,107 | — | — |
| (not yet parsed) | n/a | 2026-03-06 | None (n/a) | 0 | — | — |
| (not yet parsed) | n/a | 2026-03-04 | None (n/a) | 0 | — | — |
Insider activity post-Q4 print has been overwhelmingly compensation/equity-grant flow rather than discretionary signal — RSU-vesting tax withholdings dominate the count. The single discretionary sale is Director Pamela Braden's 80,000-share open-market sell on 2026-03-16 at $4.00 (~$320K), which is small relative to the company's ~$2B market cap and consistent with Director-tier diversification rather than a strong signal. AE Industrial Partners (the post-2020-roll-up large holder) does NOT appear in the trailing 90 days of Form 4s — their position trajectory is best inspected via 13F quarterly filings.
Newsflow timeline — since the last print (2026-03-02)
BigBear.ai IR press releases. Federal contract awards (USAspending.gov) and broader news coverage pending refresh. 3 entries through 2026-05-02.
newsflow timeline pending refresh
Pending refresh — only the BBAI IR feed walked. Refresh task should additionally walk: (1) USAspending.gov for prime contract awards to BBAI (action_obligation_amount > $1M) since 2026-03-02 — federal-services-heavy companies typically have several monthly award rows; (2) Google News RSS for 'BigBear.ai contract' keyword (Reuters/CNBC/Bloomberg pickups); (3) DefenseScoop, Federal News Network, NextGov coverage of BBAI named program-office wins; (4) Ask Sage / Pangiam / CargoSeer-segment customer announcements not on the parent BBAI IR feed.
Peer cross-reads — what adjacent printers said (or will say)
Hyperscaler capex (the AI-demand backdrop), defense / IC services peers (BAH/LDOS/SAIC/CACI — none reported in the trailing two-week window), small-cap AI peers (SOUN/VERI/INOD all report AFTER BBAI), and AI-platform analogs (PLTR May 4, TEM May 5 same evening).
Hyperscaler capex
Microsoft (MSFT) · 2026-04-29 cite
Q3 FY2026: Azure +40%, AI run rate $37B; CFO unveiled record $190B 2026 capex. Stock fell 5% on capex-magnitude concerns despite the beat.
Read-through to BBAI:MSFT $190B capex confirms federal-AI-infrastructure spending continuing — a tailwind for AI software vendors, but BBAI's federal-services revenue model captures less of that capex spend than commercial-software peers. Indirect read.
Hyperscaler capex
Alphabet (GOOG) · 2026-04-29 cite
Q1 2026: revenue and earnings beat, raised 2026 capex to $185-$190B. Stock rallied ~6% on Cloud strength.
Read-through to BBAI:Google Cloud growth confirms enterprise-AI demand is landing on the major hyperscalers. For BBAI, the read is indirect — they're a federal-services AI vendor, not a commercial-cloud beneficiary. Cloud-enterprise demand spilling into federal-AI procurement is a slower second-order effect.
Defense / IC services
Booz Allen / Leidos / SAIC / CACI · n/a
**The most direct comp set, but none reported in the trailing two-week window for this print cycle.** Booz Allen typically prints late May (FY end Mar); Leidos / SAIC / CACI are mid-quarter cadences — none in the most recent two weeks. The Apr 8 Reuters 'Pentagon to adopt Palantir AI as core US military system' story is the strongest contemporaneous federal-AI-spending signal, but it points to PLTR's commercial-style platform model rather than BBAI's services model.
Read-through to BBAI:Empty for this print cycle. The federal-IT services cohort is the most direct read for BBAI's program-office cadence. Refresh task should add Booz Allen's late-May print as a post-BBAI cross-comp once available.
Small-cap AI
SoundHound (SOUN) / Veritone (VERI) / Innodata (INOD) · 2026-05-07 (SOUN, INOD), 2026-05-12 (VERI)
All three small-cap AI peers report AFTER BBAI's print — SOUN and INOD May 7, VERI May 12. No pre-print read available going into the BBAI close. The reverse cross-read is more relevant: BBAI's print on May 5 (as the first small-cap AI print of the week) sets the tone for SOUN, INOD, and VERI two days later.
Read-through to BBAI:BBAI is the first small-cap AI to print this week; the small-cap AI cohort reads BBAI's print rather than the other way around. Recap should annotate which small-cap-AI print pattern BBAI's reaction sets up.
AI platform
Palantir (PLTR) · 2026-05-04 cite
Reports Monday May 4 after market close — the same week as BBAI. PLTR is the most direct AI-platform comp on the federal/IC angle (52% U.S. government revenue vs. BBAI's 90%+). The PLTR print's commentary on federal-IT spending pace, named program-office activity, and DoD adoption ('Pentagon as core US military system' Apr 8 Reuters report) is the highest-signal external read for BBAI's quarter.
Read-through to BBAI:PLTR's print on Monday is the most material peer signal heading into Tuesday's BBAI close. A PLTR beat-and-raise with strong federal commentary lifts BBAI by sentiment correlation; a PLTR miss compounded by federal-IT softness magnifies BBAI downside risk. The implied move on PLTR (~9.8%) is materially smaller than BBAI's historical reaction-magnitude — meaning PLTR's print direction matters more than its magnitude for BBAI's setup.
AI platform
Tempus AI (TEM) · 2026-05-05 cite
Reports same evening as BBAI (Tuesday May 5). TEM is a different vertical (healthcare data) but the same shape — small-to-mid-cap AI pure-play, GAAP loss-maker, multi-acquisition integration story. The same-evening peer report creates a 'small-cap AI report-week' narrative; BBAI and TEM reactions are likely to correlate via small-cap-AI sentiment flow more than via fundamental cross-read.
Read-through to BBAI:TEM and BBAI report same evening. Both are small-cap AI pure-plays that have rallied ~20%+ in the 30 days into the print. A divergent post-close reaction (one beats, one misses) telegraphs that small-cap AI sentiment is differentiating across name — a positive sign for the cohort. A correlated direction (both up or both down) telegraphs sentiment-driven rather than fundamentals-driven moves.
The most material same-week peer is Palantir (Monday May 4 after close), which prints a day before BBAI. PLTR's commentary on federal-IT spending pace and DoD adoption is the highest-signal external read for BBAI's quarter; the same-evening Tempus AI print creates a small-cap-AI 'report week' narrative where BBAI and TEM reactions correlate via cohort sentiment more than via fundamental cross-read.
Valuation context — forward P/S across three peer cohorts
BBAI at 13.7x sits between the federal-IT services cluster (1-2x) and the small-cap AI cluster (5-15x), reflecting BBAI's hybrid identity — federal-services revenue mix with AI-pure-play optionality.
BBAI forward P/S
13.7x
Market cap $1.98B ÷ FY2026 consensus revenue $144.5M = 13.7x. Spot $4.14 as of 2026-05-01.
Post-SPAC band: ~1.5x at the late-2022/early-2023 low, peaked above ~30x in the late-2024 AI rally, currently 13.7x.
Peer comparison
| Peer | Cohort | Fwd P/S | FY26 growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | Small-cap AI | 13.7x | 13% |
| PLTR | AI platform | 47.1x | 64% |
| CACI | Defense / IC services | 1.8x | 9% |
| LDOS | Defense / IC services | 1.5x | 6% |
| BAH | Defense / IC services | 1.3x | 8% |
| SAIC | Defense / IC services | 1.2x | 4% |
| TEM | Small-cap AI | 12.0x | 35% |
| SOUN | Small-cap AI | 11.0x | 70% |
| INOD | Small-cap AI | 5.0x | 20% |
| VERI | Small-cap AI | 1.5x | 5% |
BBAI trades at a meaningful premium to the federal-IT services peer set (BAH 1.3x / LDOS 1.5x / SAIC 1.2x / CACI 1.8x) — a 7-13x multiple premium that reflects the AI-pure-play optionality. Within the small-cap AI cluster, BBAI sits in the middle of the band (above VERI 1.5x and INOD 5.0x; near SOUN 11.0x and TEM 12.0x) but below PLTR's 47x (which has a much higher growth rate). The valuation logic priced into BBAI's ~14x: FY26 growth needs to materialize at the ~17% guide midpoint AND the company needs to demonstrate path-to-breakeven progression. Disappointment on either axis re-rates the stock toward the federal-services cluster (1-2x), implying material downside on a bear print.
Scenarios — bull / base / bear
Three print combinations and the qualitative reaction call for each. **1-day move ranges anchored to BBAI's 17-quarter post-SPAC reaction history (-32% to +6%, median -10%, 14-of-17 negative).**
Bull
Print combination: Revenue beats consensus ($33.6M median) by >5% (~$35.3M+) AND adj EBITDA improves materially (less negative than Q4 2025's -$10.3M, ideally back to flat-or-positive), AND mgmt reaffirms or modestly nudges UP the FY2026 $135M-$165M guide, AND backlog rebuilds (Funded backlog rebuild meaningful or total backlog stable around $250M+), AND named contract wins disclosed from Ask Sage / Pangiam / CargoSeer / AD Ports.
Stock rallies meaningfully; biggest move comes from backlog rebuild commentary and the Ask Sage / Pangiam customer-attribution detail. The 17-quarter reaction history shows only 3 positive prints (max +6.13% Q3 2025, +1.98% Q3 2022, +0.60% Q1 2025) — BBAI is heavily skewed to negative reactions, so a TRUE bull print needs a clear FY26 guide raise plus backlog evidence to break the pattern.
Rough 1-day move range: +6.0% to +25.0%
Base
Print combination: Revenue in line to slight beat ($33-$35M), adj EBITDA modestly improved or flat (-$10M to -$5M range), FY2026 guide reaffirmed unchanged at $135M-$165M, backlog flat to slight decline. Acquisition-integration commentary directional but without named wins of size.
Modest move in either direction. BBAI's reaction asymmetry suggests downside skew on flat prints — the 17-quarter median is -9.66%. Heavy short interest (historically 8-15%) creates a cover-on-bull-news asymmetry but the more common pattern is that flat prints fade as the algo bid evaporates. The print has to clear a higher bar than 'in line' to break the negative-reaction streak.
Rough 1-day move range: -12.0% to +5.0%
Bear
Print combination: Revenue misses (sub-$32M) OR adj EBITDA continues to deteriorate (worse than -$10M), OR FY2026 guide cut at the high end (e.g. trimmed to $135M-$155M from $135M-$165M), OR backlog declines materially (toward $200M or below total), OR new goodwill impairment triggered on Pangiam or Ask Sage carrying values. Compounded by Army-program softness commentary recurring.
Sharp downside move. BBAI's bear-print precedents are severe: -31.65% Q4 2023 (largest), -27.01% Q2 2022, -22.32% Q4 2021 (first post-SPAC), -20.48% Q4 2024. With BBAI at $4 (already 53% off the 52-week high of $9.39), a bear print could realize a move toward the $3 floor — a 25%+ decline. **The setup is asymmetric to the downside on this print.**
Rough 1-day move range: -30.0% to -10.0%
What would most surprise me?
The most under-priced corner of the distribution is probably a meaningful backlog rebuild — particularly in the Funded backlog component — paired with Ask Sage and CargoSeer customer-attribution detail that gives FY2026 revenue visibility a credible path to the $150M midpoint. The data points pulling toward this read: total cash + investments at $462M (a fortified balance sheet that funds aggressive go-to-market for the acquired entities), the AD Ports Group strategic partnership announced January 2026 (Middle East expansion that reduces U.S. government concentration), and the 30-day +21% rally going in (the market may be anticipating exactly this outcome). The data points pulling against it: 14-of-17 post-SPAC prints have been negative (-32% to +6% range, median -10%), Q4 2025 revenue was down 38% YoY on 'lower volume on Army programs' which is an end-customer demand softness rather than a one-quarter timing issue, and the 17% YoY guide at the FY2026 midpoint already implies a meaningful acceleration that could disappoint at the quarterly cadence. The 'most surprise' outcome is therefore a print that DOES deliver the backlog rebuild AND the named acquisition wins AND the FY26 guide reaffirmation, but the stock STILL fails to clear a +10% reaction because the small-cap-AI cohort has positioned for it via the 30-day +21% rally — meaning the surprise is muted by the run-up. Equally surprising on the downside: a print that confirms further Army-program softness AND triggers an additional goodwill impairment on Pangiam or Ask Sage carrying values would compound into a sub-$3 reaction, well below the implied move that no public source can currently price. This is a reading of the data on the page, not advice. The page does not recommend any position.
This is a reading of the data on the page, not advice. The page does not recommend any position.
Earnings-call agenda primer
What to listen for during the call itself — structure, analyst pressure points, and recurring management hedges.
Call structure: CEO Kevin McAleenan opens with thematic remarks emphasizing the U.S. government / national-security and travel-and-trade end markets, the Ask Sage acquisition rationale, and the Middle East AD Ports expansion. CFO Sean Ricker walks the financials and the next-quarter guide (revenue range, no quarterly guide previously issued — listen for whether mgmt introduces one). General Counsel Carolyn Blankenship participates if regulatory or contract-disclosure questions surface in Q&A. The call typically runs 45 minutes with prepared remarks ~15 minutes and Q&A ~30 minutes.
Analyst pressure topics: Analysts most likely to press on (1) backlog cadence (Funded vs. Unfunded vs. Priced options vs. Unpriced options) and the Q1 2026 trajectory, (2) Ask Sage and Pangiam customer-attribution detail and integration cost tail, (3) Q4 2025 'lower volume on Army programs' — recovery cadence and whether the headwind extends to Q1 2026, (4) goodwill carrying-value updates on Pangiam ($85M FY2024 + $70.6M FY2025 impairments already taken — is more coming?), (5) the path to adj EBITDA breakeven and the FY2026 cadence, (6) the AD Ports Group / Middle East commercial-revenue runway, (7) classified-program revenue commentary if any.
Management hedges: Management commonly hedges on program-office-specific contract values (national-security customers; specific contract details typically not publicly disclosed), classified-program revenue (aggregated rather than itemized), the AE Industrial Partners 66⅔% supermajority director-removal provision (governance topic that surfaces in Q&A), and the precise cadence of integration-cost roll-off for Pangiam and Ask Sage. Tone shifts on any of these — particularly any commentary that materially changes the FY2026 revenue cadence or the path to breakeven — are themselves signal.
Methodology and sources
As of Sat May 2, 2026 · 3:11 PM ET.
This page presents publicly available data and a framework for thinking through reaction scenarios for BigBear.ai's Q1 2026 earnings print. It is not financial advice and does not recommend any position. All values cite their primary source (SEC EDGAR, BigBear.ai Investor Relations, Yahoo Finance historical prices, Zacks and stockanalysis.com sell-side aggregator surfaces, contemporaneous IR press releases). The page is built ahead of the print, refreshed on demand through Tuesday May 5, 2026, and locked at the closing bell (16:00 ET) on print day as a frozen historical record. Cross-references: /orgs/bigbear-ai/financials/ for long-history financials; /orgs/bigbear-ai/leadership/ for the management cast (CEO Kevin McAleenan, CFO Sean Ricker, GC Carolyn Blankenship); /data/federal-tech-spending/ for federal-IT-spending context; /orgs/palantir/earnings/2026-05-04/preview/ for the same-week PLTR peer print; /orgs/tempus-ai/earnings/2026-05-05/preview/ (when shipped) for the same-evening TEM peer print.
- Prior-quarter actuals and the FY2026 guide range: SEC EDGAR, BigBear.ai CIK 1836981 — companyfacts XBRL and the Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings 8-K.
- Sell-side consensus: Zacks BBAI detailed estimates (3 analysts on quarterly cells) and stockanalysis.com BBAI forecast (5 analysts on annual cells, sourced from Finnhub). When aggregators differ beyond ±1% revenue / ±$0.01 EPS, median + analyst range surfaced.
- Options-implied move: NASDAQ public options-chain API returned 'Options are not available for this symbol' for BBAI; the implied-move cell is rendered as 'pending refresh' with the diagnostic enumerated. Refresh task should attempt CBOE LiveVol, Yahoo Finance browser-session crumb, or a contemporaneous broker-terminal hand-curate.
- Reaction history: 17 quarters of post-SPAC 1-day moves computed from Yahoo Finance free historical price data. Pre-print historical implied moves not archived (same options-data reachability constraint).
- Insider Form 4s: SEC EDGAR per-issuer Form 4 listing, last 90 days, parsed from per-filing XML.
- Newsflow timeline: BigBear.ai IR press-release feed. USAspending.gov federal contract awards walk pending refresh.
- Peer cross-reads: each named peer's most recent earnings call coverage; PLTR and TEM same-week peers cross-link to their preview pages.
- Live ticker: TradingView Single Quote widget (
NYSE:BBAI), per the site-wide third-party-widget pattern.
Not financial advice. This page presents publicly available data and a framework for thinking through reaction scenarios for BigBear.ai's Q1 2026 earnings print. It does not recommend any position. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Cross-references: BigBear.ai Financials, BigBear.ai Leadership, Federal Tech Spending, Palantir Q1 2026 preview, Tempus AI Q1 2026 preview. See also: Earnings Calendar for the month-at-a-glance view.