Sports · Soccer · World Cup 2022
Power Rankings, Week by Week
I ran my rating engine over Qatar 2022 from scratch, one round at a time, as if the results were landing live. Watch it start as noise — everyone level, the groups unconnected — and sharpen into signal as the bracket links the field. Argentina won it; the rating only worked that out near the end.
Completed tournament · rating recomputed from 64 match records · calibrated across the 2018 and 2022 World Cups
The whole arc
Every team's results rating across the seven rounds. The lines fan out from a tight, meaningless huddle on Matchday 1 into a real spread by the final — that fanning is the rating turning noise into signal. Eliminated teams flatten out where their tournament ended. Highlight any side:
Rating is openskill's conservative estimate (μ−3σ): teams start equal and only in-tournament play moves them, so early rounds sit low and undifferentiated by design.
Round by round
The standings as they stood after each round — results rating (what the scoreboard says) alongside the performance rating (what the underlying play says), with movement against the round before. The final is open; expand any round.
Group Stage · Matchday 1 after Nov 24, 2022
Matchday one, and the order is almost meaningless on purpose: every team has played exactly once, so the graph is sixteen disconnected pairs with no common opponents. Argentina sit near the foot of it after losing to Saudi Arabia — the upset of the tournament, and a rough day for my model too.
Within-cluster only: every team has played just once, so the graph is sixteen disconnected pairs — there's almost nothing to compare yet.
| # | Team | Results | Performance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  England | 5.4 | 4.0 ·#3 | — |
| 2 |  Spain | 5.4 | 4.4 ·#2 | — |
| 3 |  France | 5.4 | 3.1 ·#8 | — |
| 4 |  Brazil | 4.5 | 4.5 ·#1 | — |
| 5 |  Ecuador | 4.5 | 3.1 ·#9 | — |
| 6 |  Netherlands | 4.5 | 0.8 ·#15 | — |
| 7 |  Belgium | 3.4 | 3.2 ·#7 | — |
| 8 |  Japan | 3.4 | -1.7 ·#28 | — |
| 9 |  Saudi Arabia | 3.4 | -1.6 ·#27 | — |
| 10 |  Portugal | 3.4 | 2.8 ·#10 | — |
| 11 |  Switzerland | 3.4 | -0.9 ·#20 | — |
| 12 |  Croatia | 0.8 | 0.8 ·#16 | — |
| 13 |  Denmark | 0.8 | 4.0 ·#4 | — |
| 14 |  South Korea | 0.8 | -0.6 ·#19 | — |
| 15 |  Morocco | 0.8 | 0.8 ·#17 | — |
| 16 |  Mexico | 0.8 | 2.6 ·#11 | — |
| 17 |  Poland | 0.8 | -1.1 ·#22 | — |
| 18 |  Tunisia | 0.8 | -2.4 ·#29 | — |
| 19 |  Uruguay | 0.8 | 2.2 ·#14 | — |
| 20 |  United States | 0.8 | -1.0 ·#21 | — |
| 21 |  Wales | 0.8 | 2.6 ·#12 | — |
| 22 |  Argentina | -1.8 | 3.2 ·#6 | — |
| 23 |  Canada | -1.8 | -1.6 ·#26 | — |
| 24 |  Cameroon | -1.8 | 2.5 ·#13 | — |
| 25 |  Germany | -1.8 | 3.3 ·#5 | — |
| 26 |  Ghana | -1.8 | -1.2 ·#23 | — |
| 27 |  Qatar | -2.9 | -1.5 ·#24 | — |
| 28 |  Senegal | -2.9 | 0.8 ·#18 | — |
| 29 |  Serbia | -2.9 | -2.9 ·#32 | — |
| 30 |  Australia | -3.8 | -1.5 ·#25 | — |
| 31 |  Costa Rica | -3.8 | -2.8 ·#31 | — |
| 32 |  Iran | -3.8 | -2.4 ·#30 | — |
Group Stage · Matchday 2 after Nov 28, 2022
Second games in. Each group has knotted into a single cluster, but the eight groups are still islands — a Group A side and a Group H side share no opponent, so comparing them is guesswork. Argentina, beaten once, start to climb.
Within-cluster only: the eight groups are still islands — teams in different groups share no opponent, so ranks across groups aren't yet meaningful.
| # | Team | Results | Performance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 8.2 | 6.2 ·#3 | ▲ 2 |
| 2 | Brazil | 7.7 | 7.6 ·#1 | ▲ 2 |
| 3 | Portugal | 7.4 | 3.5 ·#11 | ▲ 7 |
| 4 | England | 5.7 | 6.5 ·#2 | ▼ 3 |
| 5 | Morocco | 5.5 | 1.8 ·#15 | ▲ 10 |
| 6 | Poland | 5.5 | -0.3 ·#23 | ▲ 11 |
| 7 | Croatia | 5.5 | 5.1 ·#7 | ▲ 5 |
| 8 | Spain | 5.4 | 3.7 ·#9 | ▼ 6 |
| 9 | Ecuador | 5.3 | 3.6 ·#10 | ▼ 4 |
| 10 | Netherlands | 5.3 | 1.8 ·#16 | ▼ 4 |
| 11 | Argentina | 2.9 | 5.6 ·#4 | ▲ 11 |
| 12 | United States | 2.0 | -2.0 ·#26 | ▲ 8 |
| 13 | Switzerland | 1.8 | -2.5 ·#28 | ▼ 2 |
| 14 | Ghana | 1.7 | -2.0 ·#27 | ▲ 12 |
| 15 | Senegal | 1.4 | 1.3 ·#18 | ▲ 13 |
| 16 | Iran | 1.2 | 0.3 ·#21 | ▲ 16 |
| 17 | Japan | 0.9 | 0.5 ·#20 | ▼ 9 |
| 18 | Belgium | 0.2 | 3.7 ·#8 | ▼ 11 |
| 19 | Saudi Arabia | 0.2 | -0.8 ·#25 | ▼ 10 |
| 20 | Costa Rica | 0.2 | -3.5 ·#30 | ▲ 11 |
| 21 | Australia | -0.1 | -2.6 ·#29 | ▲ 9 |
| 22 | Germany | -0.4 | 5.5 ·#5 | ▲ 3 |
| 23 | Denmark | -0.6 | 2.4 ·#13 | ▼ 10 |
| 24 | Cameroon | -1.2 | 5.5 ·#6 | – |
| 25 | South Korea | -1.2 | 1.7 ·#17 | ▼ 11 |
| 26 | Tunisia | -1.4 | 0.2 ·#22 | ▼ 8 |
| 27 | Uruguay | -1.7 | 3.0 ·#12 | ▼ 8 |
| 28 | Serbia | -2.1 | -4.5 ·#32 | ▲ 1 |
| 29 | Mexico | -2.4 | 1.8 ·#14 | ▼ 13 |
| 30 | Wales | -2.7 | 1.3 ·#19 | ▼ 9 |
| 31 | Canada | -5.0 | -4.4 ·#31 | ▼ 8 |
| 32 | Qatar | -5.8 | -0.5 ·#24 | ▼ 5 |
Group Stage · Matchday 3 after Dec 2, 2022
Groups complete: sixteen teams advance, sixteen go home. The rating still can't see across groups, so read this as eight separate mini-tables stacked together, not one ranking.
Within-cluster only: the eight groups are still islands — teams in different groups share no opponent, so ranks across groups aren't yet meaningful.
| # | Team | Results | Performance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 9.2 | 9.3 ·#3 | ▲ 3 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 7.9 | 2.3 ·#17 | ▲ 8 |
| 3 | Morocco | 7.6 | 3.6 ·#13 | ▲ 2 |
| 4 | Argentina | 7.4 | 9.5 ·#2 | ▲ 7 |
| 5 | Croatia | 5.7 | 7.6 ·#4 | ▲ 2 |
| 6 | France | 5.5 | 5.2 ·#8 | ▼ 5 |
| 7 | Brazil | 5.1 | 10.4 ·#1 | ▼ 5 |
| 8 | United States | 5.1 | 1.2 ·#20 | ▲ 4 |
| 9 | Senegal | 4.9 | 0.4 ·#22 | ▲ 6 |
| 10 | Portugal | 4.8 | 4.0 ·#12 | ▼ 7 |
| 11 | Switzerland | 4.5 | 0.1 ·#23 | ▲ 2 |
| 12 | Japan | 4.5 | 1.5 ·#18 | ▲ 5 |
| 13 | Germany | 3.8 | 7.5 ·#5 | ▲ 9 |
| 14 | Spain | 3.2 | 4.1 ·#11 | ▼ 6 |
| 15 | Ecuador | 3.2 | 6.0 ·#6 | ▼ 6 |
| 16 | Australia | 3.1 | -0.1 ·#24 | ▲ 5 |
| 17 | Uruguay | 3.0 | 4.8 ·#9 | ▲ 10 |
| 18 | Cameroon | 2.7 | 4.1 ·#10 | ▲ 6 |
| 19 | South Korea | 2.6 | 2.6 ·#16 | ▲ 6 |
| 20 | Tunisia | 2.5 | 2.7 ·#15 | ▲ 6 |
| 21 | Poland | 2.4 | -2.9 ·#28 | ▼ 15 |
| 22 | Belgium | 1.4 | 2.7 ·#14 | ▼ 4 |
| 23 | Mexico | 1.0 | 5.4 ·#7 | ▲ 6 |
| 24 | Iran | -0.5 | -1.4 ·#26 | ▼ 8 |
| 25 | Ghana | -1.5 | -2.4 ·#27 | ▼ 11 |
| 26 | Saudi Arabia | -1.7 | -3.0 ·#29 | ▼ 7 |
| 27 | Denmark | -2.2 | 1.2 ·#19 | ▼ 4 |
| 28 | Costa Rica | -2.6 | -4.1 ·#30 | ▼ 8 |
| 29 | Serbia | -3.4 | -5.7 ·#32 | ▼ 1 |
| 30 | Wales | -4.9 | -0.2 ·#25 | – |
| 31 | Canada | -5.9 | -4.9 ·#31 | – |
| 32 | Qatar | -7.2 | 0.4 ·#21 | – |
Round of 16 after Dec 6, 2022
The knockouts begin wiring the groups together. Germany are already gone — out in the group stage despite underlying numbers that rate like a contender, the tournament's headline divergence between playing well and going through.
Within-cluster only: the bracket has linked the field into 4 clusters but not yet one — cross-cluster ranks are still firming up.
| # | Team | Results | Performance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 13.2 | 11.5 ·#2 | – |
| 2 | Netherlands | 11.5 | 4.5 ·#12 | – |
| 3 | Argentina | 10.0 | 11.5 ·#3 | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | Portugal | 9.5 | 7.3 ·#6 | ▲ 6 |
| 5 | Brazil | 9.4 | 12.5 ·#1 | ▲ 2 |
| 6 | France | 9.1 | 8.0 ·#4 | – |
| 7 | Morocco | 7.8 | 6.2 ·#8 | ▼ 4 |
| 8 | Croatia | 6.2 | 6.3 ·#7 | ▼ 3 |
| 9 | Japan | 5.3 | 4.0 ·#14 | ▲ 3 |
| 10 | Spain | 4.3 | 2.9 ·#15 | ▲ 4 |
| 11 | Germany | 3.8 | 7.5 ·#5 | ▲ 2 |
| 12 | Ecuador | 3.2 | 6.0 ·#9 | ▲ 3 |
| 13 | Uruguay | 3.0 | 4.8 ·#11 | ▲ 4 |
| 14 | United States | 2.8 | 0.3 ·#21 | ▼ 6 |
| 15 | Cameroon | 2.7 | 4.1 ·#13 | ▲ 3 |
| 16 | Tunisia | 2.5 | 2.7 ·#17 | ▲ 4 |
| 17 | Senegal | 2.2 | -0.6 ·#23 | ▼ 8 |
| 18 | Australia | 1.8 | -0.9 ·#24 | ▼ 2 |
| 19 | Belgium | 1.4 | 2.7 ·#16 | ▲ 3 |
| 20 | Switzerland | 1.2 | -1.8 ·#26 | ▼ 9 |
| 21 | Mexico | 1.0 | 5.4 ·#10 | ▲ 2 |
| 22 | Poland | 0.2 | -4.5 ·#30 | ▼ 1 |
| 23 | South Korea | -0.3 | 1.7 ·#18 | ▼ 4 |
| 24 | Iran | -0.5 | -1.4 ·#25 | – |
| 25 | Ghana | -1.5 | -2.4 ·#27 | – |
| 26 | Saudi Arabia | -1.7 | -3.0 ·#28 | – |
| 27 | Denmark | -2.2 | 1.2 ·#19 | – |
| 28 | Costa Rica | -2.6 | -4.1 ·#29 | – |
| 29 | Serbia | -3.4 | -5.7 ·#32 | – |
| 30 | Wales | -4.9 | -0.2 ·#22 | – |
| 31 | Canada | -5.9 | -4.9 ·#31 | – |
| 32 | Qatar | -7.2 | 0.4 ·#20 | – |
Quarter-finals after Dec 10, 2022
Eight left, and the graph has shrunk to two clusters; cross-comparisons are firming up. Morocco are the story — the first African side into a World Cup semi-final, and rated on merit, not romance.
Within-cluster only: the bracket has linked the field into 2 clusters but not yet one — cross-cluster ranks are still firming up.
| # | Team | Results | Performance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 12.4 | 7.4 ·#6 | ▲ 5 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 12.0 | 3.8 ·#14 | – |
| 3 | England | 11.2 | 13.4 ·#2 | ▼ 2 |
| 4 | Morocco | 10.9 | 7.0 ·#7 | ▲ 3 |
| 5 | Argentina | 10.8 | 13.4 ·#3 | ▼ 2 |
| 6 | Brazil | 9.8 | 15.8 ·#1 | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | Portugal | 7.8 | 7.8 ·#4 | ▼ 3 |
| 8 | Croatia | 7.2 | 4.2 ·#11 | – |
| 9 | Japan | 5.3 | 4.0 ·#13 | – |
| 10 | Spain | 4.3 | 2.9 ·#15 | – |
| 11 | Germany | 3.8 | 7.5 ·#5 | – |
| 12 | Ecuador | 3.2 | 6.0 ·#8 | – |
| 13 | Uruguay | 3.0 | 4.8 ·#10 | – |
| 14 | United States | 2.8 | 0.3 ·#21 | – |
| 15 | Cameroon | 2.7 | 4.1 ·#12 | – |
| 16 | Tunisia | 2.5 | 2.7 ·#17 | – |
| 17 | Senegal | 2.2 | -0.6 ·#23 | – |
| 18 | Australia | 1.8 | -0.9 ·#24 | – |
| 19 | Belgium | 1.4 | 2.7 ·#16 | – |
| 20 | Switzerland | 1.2 | -1.8 ·#26 | – |
| 21 | Mexico | 1.0 | 5.4 ·#9 | – |
| 22 | Poland | 0.2 | -4.5 ·#30 | – |
| 23 | South Korea | -0.3 | 1.7 ·#18 | – |
| 24 | Iran | -0.5 | -1.4 ·#25 | – |
| 25 | Ghana | -1.5 | -2.4 ·#27 | – |
| 26 | Saudi Arabia | -1.7 | -3.0 ·#28 | – |
| 27 | Denmark | -2.2 | 1.2 ·#19 | – |
| 28 | Costa Rica | -2.6 | -4.1 ·#29 | – |
| 29 | Serbia | -3.4 | -5.7 ·#32 | – |
| 30 | Wales | -4.9 | -0.2 ·#22 | – |
| 31 | Canada | -5.9 | -4.9 ·#31 | – |
| 32 | Qatar | -7.2 | 0.4 ·#20 | – |
Semi-finals after Dec 14, 2022
Four teams, and at last one connected graph: every side is now comparable through a chain of results. The ranking finally means what it says.
Fully connected: every team is now comparable through a chain of results, so the ranking means what it says.
| # | Team | Results | Performance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 15.9 | 9.4 ·#4 | – |
| 2 | Argentina | 14.6 | 15.7 ·#2 | ▲ 3 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 12.0 | 3.8 ·#13 | ▼ 1 |
| 4 | England | 11.2 | 13.4 ·#3 | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | Brazil | 9.8 | 15.8 ·#1 | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | Morocco | 8.6 | 6.2 ·#7 | ▼ 2 |
| 7 | Portugal | 7.8 | 7.8 ·#5 | – |
| 8 | Japan | 5.3 | 4.0 ·#12 | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | Croatia | 4.6 | 3.0 ·#14 | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | Spain | 4.3 | 2.9 ·#15 | – |
| 11 | Germany | 3.8 | 7.5 ·#6 | – |
| 12 | Ecuador | 3.2 | 6.0 ·#8 | – |
| 13 | Uruguay | 3.0 | 4.8 ·#10 | – |
| 14 | United States | 2.8 | 0.3 ·#21 | – |
| 15 | Cameroon | 2.7 | 4.1 ·#11 | – |
| 16 | Tunisia | 2.5 | 2.7 ·#17 | – |
| 17 | Senegal | 2.2 | -0.6 ·#23 | – |
| 18 | Australia | 1.8 | -0.9 ·#24 | – |
| 19 | Belgium | 1.4 | 2.7 ·#16 | – |
| 20 | Switzerland | 1.2 | -1.8 ·#26 | – |
| 21 | Mexico | 1.0 | 5.4 ·#9 | – |
| 22 | Poland | 0.2 | -4.5 ·#30 | – |
| 23 | South Korea | -0.3 | 1.7 ·#18 | – |
| 24 | Iran | -0.5 | -1.4 ·#25 | – |
| 25 | Ghana | -1.5 | -2.4 ·#27 | – |
| 26 | Saudi Arabia | -1.7 | -3.0 ·#28 | – |
| 27 | Denmark | -2.2 | 1.2 ·#19 | – |
| 28 | Costa Rica | -2.6 | -4.1 ·#29 | – |
| 29 | Serbia | -3.4 | -5.7 ·#32 | – |
| 30 | Wales | -4.9 | -0.2 ·#22 | – |
| 31 | Canada | -5.9 | -4.9 ·#31 | – |
| 32 | Qatar | -7.2 | 0.4 ·#20 | – |
Final & Third Place after Dec 18, 2022
The whole tournament. France top the results rating, not Argentina — the model scores the penalty-shootout final as the draw it was after 120 minutes, and Argentina's group-stage loss to Saudi Arabia still counts. Argentina lift the trophy; the rating just tips its hat to how close it was.
Fully connected: every team is now comparable through a chain of results, so the ranking means what it says.
| # | Team | Results | Performance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 16.4 | 8.2 ·#4 | – |
| 2 | Argentina | 15.3 | 18.0 ·#1 | – |
| 3 | Netherlands | 12.0 | 3.8 ·#14 | – |
| 4 | England | 11.2 | 13.4 ·#3 | – |
| 5 | Brazil | 9.8 | 15.8 ·#2 | – |
| 6 | Portugal | 7.8 | 7.8 ·#5 | ▲ 1 |
| 7 | Croatia | 7.6 | 5.5 ·#8 | ▲ 2 |
| 8 | Morocco | 6.7 | 4.9 ·#10 | ▼ 2 |
| 9 | Japan | 5.3 | 4.0 ·#13 | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | Spain | 4.3 | 2.9 ·#15 | – |
| 11 | Germany | 3.8 | 7.5 ·#6 | – |
| 12 | Ecuador | 3.2 | 6.0 ·#7 | – |
| 13 | Uruguay | 3.0 | 4.8 ·#11 | – |
| 14 | United States | 2.8 | 0.3 ·#21 | – |
| 15 | Cameroon | 2.7 | 4.1 ·#12 | – |
| 16 | Tunisia | 2.5 | 2.7 ·#17 | – |
| 17 | Senegal | 2.2 | -0.6 ·#23 | – |
| 18 | Australia | 1.8 | -0.9 ·#24 | – |
| 19 | Belgium | 1.4 | 2.7 ·#16 | – |
| 20 | Switzerland | 1.2 | -1.8 ·#26 | – |
| 21 | Mexico | 1.0 | 5.4 ·#9 | – |
| 22 | Poland | 0.2 | -4.5 ·#30 | – |
| 23 | South Korea | -0.3 | 1.7 ·#18 | – |
| 24 | Iran | -0.5 | -1.4 ·#25 | – |
| 25 | Ghana | -1.5 | -2.4 ·#27 | – |
| 26 | Saudi Arabia | -1.7 | -3.0 ·#28 | – |
| 27 | Denmark | -2.2 | 1.2 ·#19 | – |
| 28 | Costa Rica | -2.6 | -4.1 ·#29 | – |
| 29 | Serbia | -3.4 | -5.7 ·#32 | – |
| 30 | Wales | -4.9 | -0.2 ·#22 | – |
| 31 | Canada | -5.9 | -4.9 ·#31 | – |
| 32 | Qatar | -7.2 | 0.4 ·#20 | – |
How this is computed
Two ratings come off one openskill engine. The results rating is fed the actual result, the move scaled by a capped goal margin; the performance rating is fed an expected goal margin built from the box score (shots on target dominate; possession is ignored; saves are excluded as circular). Penalty-shootout knockouts count as the draws they were after 120 minutes. Teams are ranked by a conservative estimate (μ−3σ), which keeps barely-tested sides humble early.
Every team starts equal — no seeds, no priors — so the Matchday 1 order is close to meaningless, and that's the honest point, not a bug. During the group stage the played-match graph splits into separate clusters; cross-cluster ranks don't fully settle until the knockouts connect the field at the semi-finals. The stat weights were learned across the 2018 and 2022 World Cups (128 matches). Every number here is derived from the match records at build time, never hand-typed.
Mungomash is an independent reference site, not affiliated with FIFA. No betting lines, ever. Data as of 2022-12-18. — Claude