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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 128
Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin — 6-4 6-4 6-4
 Carlos Alcaraz✓ | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Roman Safiullin | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Final · Monday, August 31, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Tenosynovitis in the wrist, no operation, and a first month in which he could not use his right arm at all: Alcaraz had been gone 139 days, had given no interview for four and a half months, and had spent a week training with Holger Rune in Murcia to satisfy himself he was ready. His actual return to competition had come a week earlier in the mixed doubles alongside Serena Williams. Here he saved a break point in his first service game and another in the sixth, laughed at his box, then broke on the first break point he earned, in the seventh, and served the set out. He dropped serve to love early in the second and broke straight back. Ninety-nine points to 91, four breaks from seven against one from six, 19 of 24 at the net, 2 hours 22 minutes with the roof closing before the end. It was his 25th win in 28 US Open matches — in the Open era only Ashe and McEnroe had more at that stage. “I was warming up and I couldn’t remember what I used to do in the warm-up,” he said. “The wrist is pain-free. I feel great.”
Carlos AlcarazRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Round of 128, and the defense begins: Alcaraz returns to the court where he beat Sinner for the 2025 title — and where, two weeks ago, he detoured through Fan Week's mixed doubles with Serena Williams before Bencic and Cobolli ended the experiment. Sinner's withdrawal reshaped this draw around him: the world No. 1 is absent, the No. 2 seed is the title's outstanding favorite, and only Djokovic's line shares the bottom half's gravity. The seedings offer Bublik in the Round of 16, Shelton or Fils in the quarters, Djokovic in the semis. First: the one first-round opponent with a blueprint. Sunday through Tuesday.
What we know now
Court: Arthur Ashe Stadium
Match length: 2:22
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Alcaraz, opening the defense of his title as the most in-form force in the men's game — but this is, quietly, the only first-round draw in the bottom half with a genuine warning label on it. Safiullin is one of the few men alive with a win over Alcaraz, and it came on a fast hard court: Paris indoors, 2023, 6-3 6-4, built on flat, early hitting that gave the Spaniard no time to construct. The 2026 Alcaraz is a different proposition — a 22–4 season, the Australian Open title that completed his career Slam at 23, and two US Open crowns already banked. His movement erases the Safiullin blueprint on all but perfect serving days. The champion drops a set if the first-strike waves land; he does not drop three. Alcaraz in four at most.
The case for Carlos Alcaraz
88% to winAlcaraz is the defending champion, the Australian Open champion, and the owner of a 22–4 season with seven majors at 23 — the youngest man ever to complete the career Grand Slam. His 164–45 career hard-court record and two trophies here — 2022 and 2025 — make Flushing Meadows his most successful hard-court address. The 2023 loss to Safiullin predates two of his Slam titles; the rematch meets a heavier, faster, more complete version.
The case for Roman Safiullin
12% to winSafiullin has actually done this before — Paris 2023, straight sets, the flat-hitting formula executed start to finish — and a 10–5 season suggests the level is quietly back. Nobody else in the bottom half's first round owns a hard-court win over the champion. Serve big, swing earlier than is polite, and the blueprint at least exists.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Carlos Alcaraz to advance ✓ RIGHT
“A 22–4 season, two titles on this court, and the career Slam at 23 — the 2023 blueprint against him requires a perfect day he no longer allows.”
Locked 2026-08-28 04:35 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Carlos AlcarazRoman SafiullinPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Storylines
- Alcaraz opens the defense of his 2025 title — and of a season in which he won the Australian Open to become the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam.
- Safiullin is one of the few players with a hard-court win over Alcaraz — Paris indoors 2023, 6-3 6-4; Alcaraz answered on clay at the 2024 Olympics.
- With Sinner absent, Alcaraz is the bottom half's anchor: the seedings cannot produce a top-two collision before the final.
Head to head
One–one, split by surface: Safiullin 6-3 6-4 at the 2023 Paris Masters on fast indoor hard; Alcaraz 6-4 6-2 at the 2024 Olympics on clay. Sunday's court sits closer to Paris-indoors than to Roland-Garros — which is the entire Safiullin case.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Court & schedule: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Monday 31 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-28)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.