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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 128
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan-Lennard Struff — 6-4 6-3 6-3
 Jan-Lennard Struff✓ | 6 | 6 | 6 |
 Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Final · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Struff had learned that morning that he was not in Germany's Davis Cup squad for the Croatia tie, after years as its mainstay; the captain who left him out, Michael Kohlmann, watched this from the stands. He won every point behind his first serve in the opening set. He hit fifteen aces to seven and three double faults to thirteen — the second set ended on two of Ugo Carabelli's in a row, one conceding set point and one the set, and the German press's verdict was that the Argentine's resistance broke there. He left the court during the changeover and was warned for taking too long to come back. Struff opened the third set with three aces and broke immediately on another double fault, the second serve of which flew at full pace into the crowd. Neither man landed 45% of his first serves. "It was a strange match," said Struff, 36, a fourth-round finisher here last year and a Wimbledon quarter-finalist this. "I'm happy — three sets, good." Francisco Cerundolo, a second Argentine in a row, is next.
Camilo Ugo CarabelliRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Round of 128 in the veterans' wing: Struff at 36 chasing one more New York second week, a year after proving he still had one in him. The pathway repeats last year's shape — win the openers his serve is supposed to win, then measure himself against a seed. Here that seed would be Francisco Cerúndolo or, plausibly, a rested Fritz in the Round of 32. Ugo Carabelli is the kind of first hurdle that looks low and plays slow. Sixty-four men's openers, Sunday through Tuesday.
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Struff. At 36 the German is the oldest man in this section, but the profile still fits the court: a serve-first, flat-hitting game with 175 career tour-level hard-court wins, and a fourth-round run HERE just last year that says the machinery works in New York conditions. Ugo Carabelli is nine years younger and ranked 32 places lower with a hard-court card that reads 10–27 — an Argentine clay specialist in the wrong hemisphere. Both are under .500 this season, so nobody arrives in form; the difference is that Struff's off-year still runs through big-serve tennis that translates here, while Ugo Carabelli's runs through rallies this surface shortens. First meeting. Struff in four.
The case for Camilo Ugo Carabelli
27% to winUgo Carabelli's case is age and legs: Struff is 36, playing a best-of-five in late-summer heat, and the Argentine's game is built to extend points and matches. A 17–19 season means the German is beatable by anyone who makes him play long — and nobody makes opponents play longer than a Buenos Aires baseliner with nothing to lose.
The case for Jan-Lennard Struff
73% to winStruff made the second week of this tournament twelve months ago and his serve remains among the heaviest in the draw — on a quick court that is a permanent, rally-proof advantage. His 175 hard-court wins against the Argentine's ten frame the surface gap; even a diminished Struff has spent two decades winning exactly this match.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Jan-Lennard Struff to advance ✓ RIGHT
“The serve, the surface, and last year's fourth round on these same courts — age is the only argument against, and it lost last year too.”
Locked 2026-08-28 03:15 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Camilo Ugo CarabelliJan-Lennard StruffPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Storylines
- Struff's fourth round here in 2025 — at 35 — was the oldest second-week US Open run by a German man in decades of this event.
- Ugo Carabelli's career hard-court record is 10–27; more than four-fifths of his tour-level wins have come on clay.
- First career meeting, despite eleven combined seasons on tour — the surface split kept their calendars apart.
Head to head
Never met — Struff's hard-and-grass calendar and Ugo Carabelli's clay one have simply never intersected. The style question (heavy serve against heavy topspin) gets its first answer on Sunday.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Court & schedule: Court 4, Tuesday 1 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-01)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.