US Open 2026 pages
Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 128
Alex de Minaur vs 
Andrea Guerrieri
Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Alex de Minaur to advance · locked 2026-08-29 01:40 UTCPrediction
De Minaur is the sixth seed, a quarter-finalist here last year, 33–17 on the season and 256–134 for his career on hard courts. Guerrieri is a 27-year-old left-handed qualifier ranked 187th with a 2–2 record and no tour-level hard-court matches on his ledger, playing the first Grand Slam main-draw match of his life. De Minaur's whole game is refusing to give away free points; there is no version of this where the debutant out-lasts him. Straight sets, and quickly.
The case for Alex de Minaur
93% to winSixth seed, world No. 7, 33–17 this season, 256–134 on hard courts for his career, and a quarter-final here twelve months ago. De Minaur returns better than almost anyone in the draw, which is precisely the skill that dismantles a player whose only path is free points.
The case for Andrea Guerrieri
7% to winLeft-handedness is a genuine variable in a first round, and Guerrieri has three qualifying wins on these courts this week against an opponent arriving cold. If the occasion loosens his arm rather than tightening it, one big serving set is not impossible.
Both cases written 2026-08-29, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Alex de MinaurAndrea GuerrieriPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
The briefing
Storylines
- Guerrieri, 27, is playing his first Grand Slam main-draw match — and has no tour-level hard-court record at all.
- De Minaur reached the quarter-finals here in 2025, his best US Open run.
- One of the biggest hard-court Elo gaps in the entire first round: 1919 to 1498.
Head to head
They have never met, and Guerrieri has no tour-level hard-court record to compare against — there is no form line here at all.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Watch: Opening-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, including the whip-around channel that only exists in the early rounds. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. Days one and two of the main draw are on the board; this match falls in the back half of the first round, and the US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-28)
Weather: The forecast cooled since the draw: Sunday opens partly sunny near 80°F with a slight shower chance after 2 p.m., and a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives with Sunday night. Monday is similar at 81°F, and the storm odds climb through Tuesday and Wednesday. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs; the field courts wait. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-28)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 128 is the widest the net ever gets: 64 matches a draw, spread across three days, every seed in action and every qualifier playing the biggest match of the year. This half of the bracket filled in late — qualifying ran a day long after rain pushed the last round to Friday, so these names were still blank slots on draw night. First-round losers leave with $140,000. The winner draws Choinski or Van de Zandschulp in the Round of 64.
