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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 128
Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez — 6-2 6-1 6-0
 Brandon Nakashima✓ | 6 | 6 | 6 |
 Sebastian Baez | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Final · Monday, August 31, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Exactly double: 84 points to 42, in an hour and a half. Nakashima broke in the fourth game and held to 5-2 for the first set; in the second Baez lost serve every time he served and trailed 5-0 before holding once; in the third Nakashima broke immediately, again for 4-0, and closed it 6-0. He hit twelve aces and no double faults, won 86% of his first-serve points, went thirteen from fourteen at the net, converted seven of eleven break points and saved all three he faced. Baez, who had retired from his second match in Winston-Salem the week before, hit nine winners and no aces and won 42% of the points behind his own first serve. It continues the best hard-court run of Nakashima's career — a Montreal final and semi-finals in Washington and Cincinnati — and sets up an all-American second round against Alex Michelsen, whom he has never played on tour.
Brandon NakashimaRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Round of 128 in the American quarter: Nakashima opens a campaign the seedings point toward a quarter-final with Frances Tiafoe, and the schedule-makers know it. Baez is the kind of opponent who has ruined tidier plans — but on hard courts his numbers argue with his effort. For the 16th seed, a fourth round here in 2024 set the baseline; a home crowd and a 31-win season say this year aims higher. Play runs Sunday through Tuesday.
What we know now
Court: Stadium 17
Match length: 1:30
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Nakashima. The 16th seed is at home, in form (31–17), and holds every stylistic lever: his flat, clean hitting through the middle takes time away from Baez's heavily-spun forehand, and the Argentine's 41–65 career hard-court record is the quiet confession of a clay specialist. Their only meeting — Wimbledon 2024 — was a straight-sets Nakashima stroll, and while grass is not hard court, the mechanism (pace through a low-margin swing) transfers. Baez fights, runs and problem-solves as well as anyone his size, and 24 wins this season mean he arrives sharp. It should not matter. Nakashima in three or four, controlled throughout.
The case for Brandon Nakashima
74% to winEverything aligns: home Slam, the fourth round here in 2024, a 125–93 career on hard courts against an opponent 24 games under .500 on them, and a head-to-head win in which Baez never found a foothold. Nakashima's game has no moving parts to break under first-round nerves — he simply hits through clay-court patterns.
The case for Sebastian Baez
26% to winBaez has built a top-50 career on refusing to be hit off court, and his season (24–20) is better than the surface reputation. If he makes Nakashima create pace rather than redirect it — long rallies, high balls to the backhand — the American's flat game loses its free fuel. He has upset better hard-courters than this before.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Brandon Nakashima to advance ✓ RIGHT
“Surface splits and a straight-sets head-to-head — flat pace beats heavy spin when the court is quick.”
Locked 2026-08-28 03:40 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Brandon NakashimaSebastian BaezPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Storylines
- Nakashima won the only meeting — Wimbledon 2024, 6-2 6-3 6-4 — and now gets the rematch on his favorite surface.
- Baez's career splits are the sharpest in this section: 41–65 on hard courts against a winning record everywhere else.
- The winner meets Alex Michelsen or a qualifier in the Round of 64 — and the seedings aim Nakashima and Tiafoe at each other in an all-American quarter-final.
Head to head
Nakashima leads 1–0 from Wimbledon 2024: 6-2 6-3 6-4, a match whose shape — flat pace beating heavy spin on a fast surface — is exactly the question Sunday re-asks.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Court & schedule: Stadium 17, Monday 31 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-30)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.