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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 128
Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac — 6-2 6-3 6-2
 Toby Samuel✓ | 6 | 6 | 6 |
 Tomas Machac | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Final · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Machac arrived in New York having played twice since Roland Garros and lost both, and it showed against a qualifier who never let him settle. Samuel dropped seven games in 90 minutes, conceded one break, took six from ten chances, and made thirteen unforced errors in three sets. He won 70% of his second-serve points, which against a returner of this quality is the number that ends the argument. My pick had Machac. Not by much, and not correctly.
Toby SamuelRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 128 is the widest the net ever gets: 64 matches a draw, spread across three days, every seed in action and every qualifier playing the biggest match of the year. This half of the bracket filled in late — qualifying ran a day long after rain pushed the last round to Friday, so these names were still blank slots on draw night. First-round losers leave with $140,000. The winner draws Lehečka or Carreño Busta in the Round of 64.
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Macháč is ranked 58th, reached the fourth round here in 2025 and is 91–57 on hard courts for his career. Samuel is a 23-year-old qualifier ranked 110th with no tour-level hard-court record at all — and yet the hard-court Elo has him at 1739, only 74 points behind, because the qualifying wins were good ones. That is a real signal, but four matches in six days against a top-60 player is a lot to ask. Macháč in four.
The case for Toby Samuel
41% to winSamuel's hard-court Elo of 1739 is the highest of any qualifier in this quarter, and he has three wins on these exact courts this week. Macháč is 15–13 on the season — hardly untouchable — and has not played a match on site.
The case for Tomas Machac
59% to winFourth round here twelve months ago, 91–57 on hard courts for his career, and 52 places higher in the world. Macháč's ball-striking is a level above qualifying, and a player with no tour-level hard-court matches on record has never had to sustain it for five sets.
Both cases written 2026-08-29, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Tomas Machac to advance ✗ WRONG
“A fourth-round run here last year and a 91–57 hard-court record against a qualifier with no tour-level matches on the surface.”
Locked 2026-08-29 01:40 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Toby SamuelTomas MachacPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Storylines
- Samuel is playing his first US Open main draw and has no tour-level hard-court record at all.
- Macháč reached the fourth round here in 2025, his best major result.
- Samuel's hard-court Elo (1739) is the highest of any qualifier in this quarter of the draw.
Head to head
They have never met, and Samuel has no tour-level hard-court record to compare.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Court & schedule: Court 10, Sunday 30 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-28)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.