US Open 2026 pages
Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 128
Toby Samuel vs 
Tomas Machac
Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Tomas Machac to advance · locked 2026-08-29 01:40 UTCPrediction
Macháč is ranked 58th, reached the fourth round here in 2025 and is 91–57 on hard courts for his career. Samuel is a 23-year-old qualifier ranked 110th with no tour-level hard-court record at all — and yet the hard-court Elo has him at 1739, only 74 points behind, because the qualifying wins were good ones. That is a real signal, but four matches in six days against a top-60 player is a lot to ask. Macháč in four.
The case for Toby Samuel
41% to winSamuel's hard-court Elo of 1739 is the highest of any qualifier in this quarter, and he has three wins on these exact courts this week. Macháč is 15–13 on the season — hardly untouchable — and has not played a match on site.
The case for Tomas Machac
59% to winFourth round here twelve months ago, 91–57 on hard courts for his career, and 52 places higher in the world. Macháč's ball-striking is a level above qualifying, and a player with no tour-level hard-court matches on record has never had to sustain it for five sets.
Both cases written 2026-08-29, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Toby SamuelTomas MachacPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
The briefing
Storylines
- Samuel is playing his first US Open main draw and has no tour-level hard-court record at all.
- Macháč reached the fourth round here in 2025, his best major result.
- Samuel's hard-court Elo (1739) is the highest of any qualifier in this quarter of the draw.
Head to head
They have never met, and Samuel has no tour-level hard-court record to compare.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Watch: Opening-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, including the whip-around channel that only exists in the early rounds. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Court 10, Sunday 30 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-28)
Weather: The forecast cooled since the draw: Sunday opens partly sunny near 80°F with a slight shower chance after 2 p.m., and a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives with Sunday night. Monday is similar at 81°F, and the storm odds climb through Tuesday and Wednesday. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs; the field courts wait. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-28)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 128 is the widest the net ever gets: 64 matches a draw, spread across three days, every seed in action and every qualifier playing the biggest match of the year. This half of the bracket filled in late — qualifying ran a day long after rain pushed the last round to Friday, so these names were still blank slots on draw night. First-round losers leave with $140,000. The winner draws Lehečka or Carreño Busta in the Round of 64.
