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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 64
Denis Shapovalov vs 
Luca Van Assche
Round of 64
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Denis Shapovalov to advance · locked 2026-08-31 03:00 UTCPrediction
Shapovalov, because the surface has always been his argument and it is the one thing this match-up has never tested. They have met once, at Roland Garros in 2024, and Shapovalov won it 6-3 6-4 6-4 on the clay that ought to suit Van Assche better — moving that same match onto a hard court should widen the gap, not close it. The career splits say so plainly: 196–141 on hard for the Canadian against 31–47 for the Frenchman, who is five years younger and had never won a main-draw match here before Sunday. Van Assche's first round was the better win of the two — he took out the 29th seed, Cameron Norrie, in four — and at No. 40 he is ranked eight places above an opponent whose best days at this tournament are some way behind him. But this is best-of-five on a fast court against a man who reached the quarter-finals on it six years ago.
The case for Denis Shapovalov
58% to winThe hard-court record is the case: 196–141 across a career that has taken him to a US Open quarter-final, against 31–47 for an opponent who had not won a main-draw match at this tournament until this week. Shapovalov also owns the only meeting, and he won it in straight sets on clay — the surface where the advantage should have run the other way. He came through Miomir Kecmanovic in four, which is the kind of win that says the level is there without saying the legs were spent finding it.
The case for Luca Van Assche
42% to winVan Assche is the higher-ranked man at No. 40 and has just beaten the best player either of them has faced this week: Cameron Norrie, the 29th seed, 6-7(6) 6-2 6-2 6-3 after losing the opening tiebreak. Their one meeting is two years old and on a surface neither will see again this fortnight. Shapovalov's No. 48 is the honest measure of where he is now rather than where he was in 2020, and a 14–18 season is not the record of a man who reliably closes out long matches.
Both cases written 2026-08-31, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Denis ShapovalovLuca Van AsschePlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-30.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-30.
The briefing
Storylines
- Their only previous meeting was the first round of Roland Garros in 2024, which Shapovalov won 6-3 6-4 6-4 — on clay, the surface that should have favoured Van Assche.
- Van Assche's first round was the bigger upset of the two: he beat the 29th seed, Cameron Norrie, 6-7(6) 6-2 6-2 6-3.
- Shapovalov reached the US Open quarter-finals in 2020; Van Assche had never won a main-draw match here before this week.
- The hard-court split is the widest number in the match — 196–141 for Shapovalov, 31–47 for Van Assche.
Head to head
One meeting, and it was on clay: Shapovalov won 6-3 6-4 6-4 in the first round of Roland Garros in May 2024. They have never played on a hard court.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-30.
Watch: Second-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-30)
Weather: Rain shapes the opening days. Showers and thunderstorms stay possible through Sunday night under a low near 72°F. Monday is the driest day of the window — partly sunny, high near 77°F, a 20% shower chance before 5 p.m. — before showers return after 8 p.m. Tuesday is warmer and wetter: mostly cloudy near 82°F with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly mid-afternoon and again overnight. Wednesday holds near 79°F on the same 50% odds, and Thursday is warmer still — partly sunny, 83°F, storms possible either side of the day. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs; the field courts wait. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-30)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 is where a Grand Slam draw stops being a lottery and becomes a tournament. Sixty-four men's matches opened the bracket; thirty-two across Wednesday and Thursday halve what is left, and everyone still here has already won on these courts. Seeds who came through the first round now meet opponents carrying form rather than a ranking.
