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Sports · US Open 2026 · Mixed Doubles · Semi-finals
Muchova/MensikvsAndreeva/Rublev
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · Semi-finals
Watch: ESPN2 · ESPN+
My pick: Muchova / Mensik to advance · locked 2026-08-26 17:20 UTCPrediction
Muchova and Mensik, narrowly, and I hold it loosely. The Czech pair have been the most efficient team in the draw — 4-1 5-3 past Emma Navarro and Tommy Paul in 48 minutes, the shortest quarter-final of the round — and Mensik's serve is the single biggest weapon in this match. Sets to four with no-advantage scoring compress everything into a handful of decisive points, and a first-strike server who holds cheaply forces the other pair to be perfect on their own delivery. Muchova is also the most naturally gifted volleyer left in the event; the drop-volley touch that makes her singles game so distinctive is worth more in doubles than it is anywhere else. Andreeva and Rublev have beaten the better field by a distance — the reigning champions Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori in round one, saving a match point, then Casper Ruud and Diana Shnaider in the quarters, closing it on their fifth match point of the tiebreak. That is three of last year's four finalists, and a team that keeps winning the tight ones is a team you underestimate at your own cost. But both of those wins needed a deciding tiebreak, and both were rescued rather than controlled. I will take the pair that has spent the least time in danger, and expect to be nervous about it.
The case for Muchova / Mensik
54.5% to winThe most economical team left: 48 minutes to beat Navarro and Paul 4-1 5-3, and no drama at all in the quarter-final. Mensik's serve is the biggest single shot in the match and short no-advantage sets are built to reward it — hold cheaply twice and you have a set. Muchova's hands at the net are the best in the last four, and an all-Czech pair who have both spent their careers on this surface do not need long to work out where the other one is standing.
The case for Andreeva / Rublev
45.5% to winThey have taken out three of the four players who contested last year's final: the reigning champions Errani and Vavassori in round one, saving a match point in an 11-9 tiebreak, and Ruud in the quarters. Nothing about their route has been comfortable and they have won it anyway — the quarter-final took five match points. Rublev's forehand is the heaviest ball on court and Andreeva, at 19, is the most improved player in the draw. A team that keeps surviving deciding tiebreaks tends to be good at deciding tiebreaks.
Both cases written 2026-08-26, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
The briefing
Storylines
- Andreeva and Rublev have beaten three of the four players from last year's final — reigning champions Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori in round one, and Casper Ruud in the quarter-finals.
- Both of Andreeva and Rublev's wins went to a 10-point match tiebreak; they saved a match point against the champions and needed five of their own to close the quarter-final.
- Muchova and Mensik beat Emma Navarro and Tommy Paul 4-1 5-3 in 48 minutes, the quickest quarter-final of the round.
- Neither pair is seeded — the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds all went out in the first round, and the only surviving seed is in the other semi-final.
Head to head
These two pairs have never met. Both partnerships were assembled for this event, and the revamped championship is only in its second edition — neither pair appears in the 2025 draw, so there is no head-to-head to read.
Source: US Open mixed doubles draws, 2025 and 2026 · as of 2026-08-26.
Watch: Both semi-finals are on ESPN2 from 7 p.m. ET; the final moves to ESPN at 9 p.m. ET. Every court streams in the ESPN app. (USA TODAY / ESPN listings, as of 2026-08-26)
Court & schedule: Arthur Ashe Stadium, second on in the Wednesday night session — it follows the Svitolina/Monfils v Bencic/Cobolli semi-final, which starts at 7 p.m. ET. The winners meet in the final later the same night. (US Open official order of play, day 4, as of 2026-08-26)
Weather: Showers and thunderstorms are possible across New York on Wednesday afternoon and into the evening, with a high near 80°F. Arthur Ashe has a retractable roof, so the night session plays whatever the sky does — the roof is the reason this schedule can promise a champion tonight. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-26)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
Where both players stand in the draw — the match each came through, and what winning this one is worth.
Quarter-finals
Final