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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Maya Joint vs Liudmila Samsonova — 3-6 6-2 6-2
 Maya Joint✓ | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 6 | 2 | 2 |
Final · Monday, August 31, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Samsonova had beaten Joint in both their previous meetings, the most recent of them three weeks earlier in the Toronto third round, and she took the first set here too. Then the serving inverted: Joint landed 68% of her first serves to Samsonova's 48% across the next two sets and a bit, and the break points went four from five her way against two from eleven the other. She won 89 points to 71 in an hour and fifty-nine minutes. Joint, 20 and ranked 75th after a season of 11-21, is into the second round at the US Open for the third year in a row; she plays Elina Svitolina next. The match started at five in the afternoon in New York and finished after the Australian wires had filed, which is why almost nothing was written about it.
Maya JointRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Round of 128 as a rematch with a fortnight's turnaround: Toronto's three-setter replays in a bigger building, Samsonova's power against Joint's accelerating education. The winner faces ninth-seeded Svitolina, in all likelihood, in a Round of 64 the seedings mark clearly. A third meeting inside fifteen months says the tour keeps drawing these two together — and the sets keep getting closer. Sunday through Tuesday.
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Samsonova. She has beaten Joint twice inside fourteen months — including three weeks ago in Toronto, in a three-setter that showed both the gap and its narrowing — and her serve-forward power game holds a full weight class over the 20-year-old's developing frame. Joint's 7–18 season undersells her: most losses came against exactly this tier, several were close, and her 41–35 career hard-court record beats her ranking's implication. But Samsonova's 138–97 on the surface, a 2024 fourth round here, and the freshest possible head-to-head evidence make the direction clear even in her own modest season. The Toronto middle set Joint won is the template she must hold for three. Samsonova in three.
The case for Maya Joint
30% to winJoint took a set off Samsonova three weeks ago and has spent the season absorbing exactly this kind of power schooling — the tuition eventually pays. At 20, with an Australian junior pedigree and nothing to defend, her flat ball-striking needs only a cold serving day across the net to flip the Toronto script.
The case for Liudmila Samsonova
70% to winTwo wins over this opponent in fourteen months, the latest on this surface this month; a 2024 fourth round here; and a serve Joint broke rarely across five shared sets. Samsonova's power game has an established answer key for this matchup, and New York's quick courts grade it favorably.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Liudmila Samsonova to advance ✗ WRONG
“Two head-to-head wins inside fourteen months, the latest on hard courts three weeks ago — the gap is narrowing but not gone.”
Locked 2026-08-28 05:25 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Maya JointLiudmila SamsonovaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Storylines
- They played three weeks ago in Toronto — Samsonova won 7-5 6-7(3) 6-2, her second win over Joint in fourteen months.
- Samsonova's 2024 fourth round is her US Open best; her 16–21 season is the argument her seedless status makes.
- Joint, 20, is among the youngest women in the field — part of the draw's substantial Australian contingent.
Head to head
Samsonova leads 2–0: Wimbledon 2025 in straight sets, then Toronto this month 7-5 6-7(3) 6-2. Joint's tiebreak set in Toronto is the first dent in the pattern — and the reason Sunday's version projects longer.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Court & schedule: Court 9, Monday 31 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-31)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.