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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Maya JointvsLiudmila Samsonova
Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Liudmila Samsonova to advance · locked 2026-08-28 05:25 UTCPrediction
Samsonova. She has beaten Joint twice inside fourteen months — including three weeks ago in Toronto, in a three-setter that showed both the gap and its narrowing — and her serve-forward power game holds a full weight class over the 20-year-old's developing frame. Joint's 7–18 season undersells her: most losses came against exactly this tier, several were close, and her 41–35 career hard-court record beats her ranking's implication. But Samsonova's 138–97 on the surface, a 2024 fourth round here, and the freshest possible head-to-head evidence make the direction clear even in her own modest season. The Toronto middle set Joint won is the template she must hold for three. Samsonova in three.
The case for Maya Joint
30% to winJoint took a set off Samsonova three weeks ago and has spent the season absorbing exactly this kind of power schooling — the tuition eventually pays. At 20, with an Australian junior pedigree and nothing to defend, her flat ball-striking needs only a cold serving day across the net to flip the Toronto script.
The case for Liudmila Samsonova
70% to winTwo wins over this opponent in fourteen months, the latest on this surface this month; a 2024 fourth round here; and a serve Joint broke rarely across five shared sets. Samsonova's power game has an established answer key for this matchup, and New York's quick courts grade it favorably.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Maya JointLiudmila SamsonovaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-27.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
The briefing
Storylines
- They played three weeks ago in Toronto — Samsonova won 7-5 6-7(3) 6-2, her second win over Joint in fourteen months.
- Samsonova's 2024 fourth round is her US Open best; her 16–21 season is the argument her seedless status makes.
- Joint, 20, is among the youngest women in the field — part of the draw's substantial Australian contingent.
Head to head
Samsonova leads 2–0: Wimbledon 2025 in straight sets, then Toronto this month 7-5 6-7(3) 6-2. Joint's tiebreak set in Toronto is the first dent in the pattern — and the reason Sunday's version projects longer.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Watch: Opening-round coverage starts Sunday at 11 a.m. ET across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, including a whip-around channel for the early rounds. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned — the US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, so day-one courts land the night of 29 August. This one profiles as a field-court match. (US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-27)
Weather: The opening window looks kind: mostly sunny and 85–86°F Sunday and Monday, with thunderstorm chances only creeping in on Tuesday. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs if the sky turns; the field courts wait it out. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-27)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
Round of 128 as a rematch with a fortnight's turnaround: Toronto's three-setter replays in a bigger building, Samsonova's power against Joint's accelerating education. The winner faces ninth-seeded Svitolina, in all likelihood, in a Round of 64 the seedings mark clearly. A third meeting inside fifteen months says the tour keeps drawing these two together — and the sets keep getting closer. Sunday through Tuesday.
