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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Elvina Kalieva vs Lanlana Tararudee — 6-3 6-7(4) 6-2
 Lanlana Tararudee✓ | 6 | 64 | 6 |
 Elvina Kalieva | 3 | 7 | 2 |
Final · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Kalieva forced a third set by taking a tiebreak 7-4, and then won two games in it. Tararudee's first serve was the difference all afternoon — 82% of those points won to Kalieva's 64% — and she broke six times from fifteen chances. Ninety-five unforced errors between them across 2 hours 45 minutes says neither player was comfortable; the one who served better was less uncomfortable.
Elvina KalievaRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 128 is the widest the net ever gets: 64 matches a draw, spread across three days, every seed in action and every qualifier playing the biggest match of the year. This half of the bracket filled in late — qualifying ran a day long after rain pushed the last round to Friday, so these names were still blank slots on draw night. First-round losers leave with $140,000. The winner draws Volynets or Nosková in the Round of 64.
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Tararudee is ranked 72nd and Kalieva is a 115th-ranked qualifier, and both are making their first US Open main-draw appearance — which makes the 207-point hard-court Elo gap the most reliable thing on the page. Kalieva has the better raw season record (15–11 to 10–9) and three qualifying wins here; Tararudee has the ranking, the seedless-but-solid top-75 level and fresher legs. Court 11 on Sunday. Tararudee in three.
The case for Elvina Kalieva
27% to winKalieva is 15–11 this season against Tararudee's 10–9, has three wins on these courts this week, and is playing in front of an American crowd. Their career hard-court records are nearly identical — 19–22 against 15–16.
The case for Lanlana Tararudee
73% to winForty-three ranking places and a 207-point hard-court Elo edge, without having spent the week in qualifying. Tararudee has been the better player against better opposition all year, which is what the ranking gap is measuring.
Both cases written 2026-08-29, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Lanlana Tararudee to advance ✓ RIGHT
“Forty-three ranking places and a 207-point hard-court Elo edge, with no qualifying week in the legs.”
Locked 2026-08-29 01:40 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Elvina KalievaLanlana TararudeePlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Storylines
- Both players are making their US Open main-draw debuts.
- Kalieva, an American, comes through qualifying; Tararudee is in on her ranking at No. 72.
- Their career hard-court records are within four matches of each other.
Head to head
They have never met.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Court & schedule: Court 11, Sunday 30 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-28)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.