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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Ann Li vs Antonia Ruzic — 7-5 6-1
 Ann Li✓ | 7 | 6 |
 Antonia Ruzic | 5 | 1 |
Final · Monday, August 31, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Twenty-eight winners to five. Li came to Court 12 three days after losing the Monterrey semi-final to Diane Parry — the best week of her season — and took a tight first set 7-5 before Ruzic won one more game all afternoon. The 29th seed converted five of eight break points and won 71 points to 52 in an hour and thirty-two minutes; Ruzic, whose only previous US Open main draw ended in the first round too, won 54% of the points behind her first serve and 32% behind her second. Li's second meeting with her, and her second win: she took the first in Merida in 2024 for the loss of four games. She reached the fourth round here a year ago.
Ann LiRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Round of 128 with last year's surprise fortnight on the line: Li's 2025 run to the second week built her seeding, and defending it starts against an improving opponent she has so far kept at arm's length. The winner draws Gibson or the 2019 quarter-finalist Vekić in the Round of 64. This section's seeds are all within upset range of each other — which makes every opener a positioning battle. Sunday through Tuesday.
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Li. The 29th seed earned her number the hard way — a fourth round here last year, the best fortnight of her career — and her clean, flat hitting off both wings is the classic American hard-court template. Her 19–21 season is the honest asterisk; she has spent the year losing tight matches to good players. Ružić has spent it doing roughly the same one tier down (16–21), and their only meeting — Mérida 2024 — was a 6-2 6-2 Li stroll on this surface. The Croatian's game is growing and her flat backhand can hold its own in these conditions, but nothing in the data suggests the gap has closed enough. Li in two, with the home crowd smoothing the tense moments.
The case for Ann Li
63% to winLi's fourth round here in 2025 is the reason she is seeded and Ružić is not, and the only head-to-head meeting was one-way traffic on this exact surface. At home, with a game built for the court and a crowd that lifted her through last year's run, the seed's floor is comfortably above the challenger's ceiling on current evidence.
The case for Antonia Ruzic
37% to winRužić is 23, improving, and has spent the season taking sets off players of Li's class — the 6-2 6-2 from Mérida predates most of her development. Li's year is 19–21 with a habit of losing coin-flip sets; win one early and the American is playing uphill in front of her own crowd.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Ann Li to advance ✓ RIGHT
“The seed, the home court, and a 6-2 6-2 head-to-head on this surface — the gap has narrowed, not closed.”
Locked 2026-08-28 05:00 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Ann LiAntonia RuzicPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Storylines
- Li's fourth round here in 2025 — her career-best Slam — is the résumé behind her 29th seeding; she opens its defense at home.
- Li won the only meeting 6-2 6-2 in Mérida in 2024, on hard courts.
- Ružić is chasing her first US Open main-draw win after a first-round exit on debut last year.
Head to head
Li leads 1–0 from Mérida 2024 — 6-2 6-2, on hard courts, in a match whose shape (flat American pace through a developing baseline game) is the default projection for Sunday.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Court & schedule: Court 12, Monday 31 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-30)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.