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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Naomi OsakavsAnastasia Zakharova
Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Naomi Osaka to advance · locked 2026-08-28 06:40 UTCPrediction
Osaka. The two-time champion here — 2018 and 2020, the titles that anchored her four majors — arrives seeded 13th with a 25–11 season that represents her most sustained tennis since the comeback began, and this tournament has always been the one where her first-strike game needs no translation. Zakharova at No. 101 is having a career year by volume (20–19) and her flat, compact hitting keeps scoreboards honest, but she creates offense one notch below the pace Osaka absorbs comfortably, and first meetings against the draw's biggest servers are unkind places to learn. The wobble scenario is known — Osaka's mid-match error clusters when rhythm breaks — and Zakharova is steady enough to collect one set from it. Not two. Osaka in three at most.
The case for Naomi Osaka
78% to winTwo titles on this court, four majors, a 25–11 season and a serve that remains among the sport's most efficient: Osaka's New York floor is the highest of any seed in this section. When her first strike lands at rhythm, there is no counterplan in Zakharova's game — only resistance.
The case for Anastasia Zakharova
22% to winZakharova's 20-win season is built on refusing cheap errors, and Osaka's comeback years have shown exactly one repeatable vulnerability: rhythm breaks, error clusters, momentum spirals. Stay level to 4-4 in each set and the pressure of a former champion's expectations does the heavy lifting.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Naomi OsakaAnastasia ZakharovaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-27.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
The briefing
Storylines
- Osaka won this title in 2018 and 2020 — she opens as the 13th seed with her best sustained season since returning to the tour.
- The seedings point this section at a heavyweight Round of 16: Osaka against second-seeded Rybakina, the reigning Australian Open champion.
- Zakharova, at No. 101, is playing her second US Open main draw — her first look at a former champion on the sport's biggest court.
Head to head
Never met — Osaka's championship era and Zakharova's climb never shared a court. The first serve exchange will say most of what needs saying.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Watch: Opening-round coverage starts Sunday at 11 a.m. ET across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, including a whip-around channel for the early rounds. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned — the US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, so day-one courts land the night of 29 August. A two-time champion's opener is Arthur Ashe material by default. (US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-27)
Weather: The opening window looks kind: mostly sunny and 85–86°F Sunday and Monday, with thunderstorm chances only creeping in on Tuesday. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs if the sky turns; the field courts wait it out. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-27)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
Round of 128, and the tournament's twice-crowned prodigal opens another chapter: Osaka's 2018 and 2020 titles both ran through Ashe's loudest nights, and her 13th seeding undersells a 25–11 season that has felt increasingly like the real thing. The bracket's promise sits one round deep in the second week — Rybakina, the No. 2 seed, projected for the Round of 16. First, a professional's assignment against Zakharova. Sunday through Tuesday.
