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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 64
Diana Shnaider vs Karolina Pliskova — 6-1 7-6(4)
| Diana Shnaider✓ | 6 | 7 |
 Karolina Pliskova | 1 | 64 |
Final · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · Round of 64
Result
Karolína Plíšková tore the ligaments and both tendons in her left ankle at this tournament two years ago, needed open surgery and then a second operation for an infection, and began 2026 outside the top 1000. Two days after saving a match point from 2-6, 2-5 down to beat Hanne Vandewinkel, the 34-year-old former world No. 1 broke Diana Shnaider in the opening game on Court 6 — and then lost six games in a row and the set. She broke again for 3-0 in the second, helped by three double faults in one Shnaider service game, and let that lead go too, missing a routine smash into the tape on break point as she dropped three straight. Nobody broke after that. Plíšková saved break points to force the tiebreak, where a single minibreak settled it: Shnaider led 5-3, was pegged back once, and took the first of two match points when a running backhand found the net. The 15th seed, who beat her at Wimbledon in 2024 in their only previous meeting, plays Taylor Townsend next.
Rows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 halves the draw again: 32 women's matches across Wednesday and Thursday, every one of them between players who have already won here this week. The seeds who came through the opening round now meet opponents with form behind them rather than a ranking.
Round of 128
Round of 64
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Shnaider, and the two openers could not have looked more different. The 15th seed spent 1 hour 8 minutes on Daria Snigur, took the first set 6-0 in twenty minutes and broke six times from nine chances; Pliskova needed 2 hours 30 to come back from a set down against Hanne Vandewinkel, served ten double faults and won exactly as many points as she lost, 110-110. Their one previous meeting went to Shnaider, from a set down, in the Wimbledon first round in 2024. Pliskova at 34 remains the most decorated player in this section — a US Open finalist in 2016 and 329–189 on hard courts — and her serve is still the shot that can make a match one-sided in either direction. But Shnaider is a left-hander eleven places inside the top 20 with a 1892 Elo to Pliskova's 1800, and she has been to the fourth round here more recently than Pliskova has been past the second.
The case for Diana Shnaider
66% to winShnaider needed 68 minutes to Pliskova's 150, dropped four games, and broke six times from nine chances. She won their only previous meeting, coming from a set down at Wimbledon in 2024, and she is a left-hander whose serve into the Pliskova backhand is the specific problem this match asks. Pliskova's ten double faults and 43 unforced errors on Monday are the numbers a fresher opponent will look at first.
The case for Karolina Pliskova
34% to winPliskova has been the finalist at this tournament and has 329 career hard-court wins, more than four times Shnaider's total, and she has just come from a set down to win a two-and-a-half-hour match — which is to say the legs and the resolve are both there. Her serve produced seven aces against Vandewinkel and is the one shot in this match that neither player can neutralise. At 34 and ranked 57th she is also playing with nothing to protect.
Both cases written 2026-08-31, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Diana Shnaider to advance ✓ RIGHT
“An hour and a half less tennis, the head-to-head, and a left-hander's serve into the weaker wing.”
Locked 2026-08-31 20:50 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Storylines
- Shnaider beat Daria Snigur 6-0 6-4 in 1 hour 8 minutes, taking the first set in twenty minutes.
- Pliskova came from a set down to beat Hanne Vandewinkel 2-6 7-5 6-3 in 2 hours 30, serving ten double faults and winning 110 points to 110.
- Shnaider won their only meeting, 4-6 6-4 7-5 in the Wimbledon first round in 2024.
- Pliskova was the US Open runner-up in 2016; Shnaider reached the fourth round in 2024.
- Career hard-court records: Pliskova 329–189, Shnaider 74–55.
Head to head
Shnaider leads 1-0, having come from a set down to win their only meeting 4-6 6-4 7-5 in the first round at Wimbledon in 2024.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Court & schedule: Court 6, Wednesday 2 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.