Wimbledon 2026 pages
Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff — 7-6(4) 7-6(5) 7-5
 Jan-Lennard Struff✓ | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 64 | 65 | 5 |
Final · Friday, July 3, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
Struff knocked out Medvedev 7-6(4) 7-6(5) 7-5, taking two tiebreaks and then the only non-breaker set by a single break. The German hit 47 winners and kept the point count just ahead, 129-125, while Medvedev’s 10 double faults kept handing him pressure points.
Stats: Official wimbledon.com match statistics (IBM) · as of 2026-07-09
Rows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Struff’s best Wimbledon run has a proper scalp now. He followed the Nakashima marathon with a cleaner kind of chaos against Medvedev: two tiebreaks, a 7-5 third, and just enough first-strike tennis to send the No. 8 seed out before the second week. The reward is Hubert Hurkacz, another server who has spent the fortnight making seeded paths uncomfortable. Medvedev had been handed a route through Cilic and Mérida; Struff has rewritten that quarter into a veteran power corridor, and he did it without needing a fourth set.
Jan-Lennard Struff✓Round of 64
Round of 32
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Medvedev, and the schedule is half the reason. Struff, 36, has played ten sets — six of them tiebreaks — across two matches that both went the distance, the second finishing Thursday after an overnight suspension. Medvedev has played eight tidy sets and leads the head-to-head 9-2, including a straight-sets-plus win in this exact round here in 2024. Struff's serve (45 aces in one match) travels to any court and can force breakers against anyone; that is the entire upset case. But Medvedev returns from the next postcode and makes big servers play one rally too many — fresher legs, better returner, better record. Four sets feels generous to the German.
The case for Daniil Medvedev
78% to winMedvedev leads the series 9-2, beat Struff at this stage of this tournament in 2024, and is the best returner Struff can face short of the top seeds. He has spent roughly half as much energy getting here: two four-set-or-less wins against Čilić and Mérida. Every long rally, and every fifth set, tilts his way.
The case for Jan-Lennard Struff
22% to winStruff has hit 86 aces' worth of proof that his serve decides sets on grass — he won a four-tiebreak epic over the No. 28 seed with 100 winners. He has also beaten Medvedev on grass before. If the breakers keep coming, one hot streak per set is all his game needs.
Both cases written 2026-07-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Daniil Medvedev to advance ✗ WRONG
“A 9-2 head-to-head and eight tidy sets against a 36-year-old carrying ten, six of them tiebreaks.”
Locked 2026-07-02 16:05 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-09.
Storylines
- Struff's second round was an instant classic — four tiebreaks, 86 combined aces, finished a day late — but it left a 36-year-old with ten sets in his legs.
- Medvedev beat Struff in the Wimbledon third round in 2024; the rematch comes at the same stage, with the German trying to reach a first second week here.
- The head-to-head reads 9-2 Medvedev, but Struff owns one of the two grass meetings — the surface is the German's only leveler.
Head to head
Medvedev leads 9-2 overall and 2-1 on grass, including a win at this same stage of Wimbledon 2024.
Source: TennisTemple head-to-head · as of 2026-07-02.
Court & schedule: No. 3 Court (TennisTemple match stats and ESPN scoreboard, as of 2026-07-03)
Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.