Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Daniil Medvedevvs
Jan-Lennard Struff
Friday, July 3, 2026 · Round of 32
Watch: ESPN · ESPN+
My pick: Daniil Medvedev to advance · locked 2026-07-02 16:05 UTCPrediction
Medvedev, and the schedule is half the reason. Struff, 36, has played ten sets — six of them tiebreaks — across two matches that both went the distance, the second finishing Thursday after an overnight suspension. Medvedev has played eight tidy sets and leads the head-to-head 9-2, including a straight-sets-plus win in this exact round here in 2024. Struff's serve (45 aces in one match) travels to any court and can force breakers against anyone; that is the entire upset case. But Medvedev returns from the next postcode and makes big servers play one rally too many — fresher legs, better returner, better record. Four sets feels generous to the German.
The case for Daniil Medvedev
78% to winMedvedev leads the series 9-2, beat Struff at this stage of this tournament in 2024, and is the best returner Struff can face short of the top seeds. He has spent roughly half as much energy getting here: two four-set-or-less wins against Čilić and Mérida. Every long rally, and every fifth set, tilts his way.
The case for Jan-Lennard Struff
22% to winStruff has hit 86 aces' worth of proof that his serve decides sets on grass — he won a four-tiebreak epic over the No. 28 seed with 100 winners. He has also beaten Medvedev on grass before. If the breakers keep coming, one hot streak per set is all his game needs.
Both cases written 2026-07-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-01.
The briefing
Storylines
- Struff's second round was an instant classic — four tiebreaks, 86 combined aces, finished a day late — but it left a 36-year-old with ten sets in his legs.
- Medvedev beat Struff in the Wimbledon third round in 2024; the rematch comes at the same stage, with the German trying to reach a first second week here.
- The head-to-head reads 9-2 Medvedev, but Struff owns one of the two grass meetings — the surface is the German's only leveler.
This fortnight’s form
Daniil Medvedev
- R1def. Marin Čilić6-1 6-2 6-4
- R2def. Daniel Mérida3-6 6-3 7-5 6-2
Jan-Lennard Struff
- R1def. Sebastián Báez6-1 7-6(4) 4-6 2-6 7-5
- R2def. Brandon Nakashima (28)4-6 7-6(6) 7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(7)
Each player’s path into this round. Source: Mungomash Wimbledon 2026 draw (this cluster's verified results), cross-checked against the published draw · as of 2026-07-02.
Head to head
Medvedev leads 9-2 overall and 2-1 on grass, including a win at this same stage of Wimbledon 2024.
Source: TennisTemple head-to-head · as of 2026-07-02.
Watch: US coverage runs on ESPN and ESPN2, and every court — this match included — streams on ESPN+. The exact channel follows the order of play. (ESPN, as of 2026-07-02)
Court & schedule: No. 3 Court; exact rotation per the published order of play. (All England Club order of play for Friday 3 July, via TennisTemple, as of 2026-07-02)
Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.
