World Cup 2026: Rankings
Sports · Soccer · World Cup 2026
Rankings, by Round
I ran my rating engine over the 2026 World Cup from scratch, one round at a time, as if the results were landing live. It starts as noise — everyone level, the groups unconnected — and sharpens into signal as the bracket links the field. Spain won it; the rating only worked that out near the end.
The whole arc
Every team's results rating across the eight rounds. The lines fan out from a tight, meaningless huddle on Matchday 1 into a real spread by the final — that fanning is the rating turning noise into signal. Eliminated teams flatten out where their tournament ended. Highlight any side:
Rating is openskill's conservative estimate (μ−3σ): teams start equal and only in-tournament play moves them, so early rounds sit low and undifferentiated by design.
Round by round
The standings as they stood after a given round — results rating (what the scoreboard says) alongside the performance rating (what the underlying play says), with movement against the round before. Pick a round to see its table.
June 2026
July 2026
Highlighted days show the selected round. Bold days have matches. 🏆 marks the final.
Final & Third Place
standings after Jul 19, 2026One connected graph at last — every side is now comparable through a chain of results, so the ranking finally means what it says. It's still settling as today's matches land.
Fully connected: every team is now comparable through a chain of results, so the ranking means what it says.
| # | Team | Results | Performance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain | 24.1 | 19.0 ·#1 | ▲ 1 |
| 2 |  Argentina | 20.2 | 13.7 ·#4 | ▼ 1 |
| 3 |  England | 18.9 | 15.8 ·#3 | ▲ 1 |
| 4 |  France | 15.0 | 18.3 ·#2 | ▼ 1 |
| 5 |  Mexico | 12.0 | 8.0 ·#11 | – |
| 6 |  Belgium | 11.8 | 8.0 ·#10 | – |
| 7 |  Colombia | 11.2 | 11.0 ·#5 | – |
| 8 |  Morocco | 10.7 | 8.6 ·#9 | – |
| 9 |  Switzerland | 10.4 | 6.8 ·#12 | – |
| 10 |  Brazil | 10.2 | 8.9 ·#8 | – |
| 11 |  Norway | 9.5 | 4.8 ·#17 | – |
| 12 |  Netherlands | 9.5 | 4.6 ·#18 | – |
| 13 |  Portugal | 7.7 | 0.9 ·#29 | – |
| 14 |  USA | 6.2 | 5.2 ·#14 | – |
| 15 |  Germany | 5.9 | 9.2 ·#7 | – |
| 16 |  Egypt | 4.9 | 3.8 ·#20 | – |
| 17 |  Japan | 4.2 | -0.4 ·#32 | – |
| 18 |  Canada | 3.9 | 9.8 ·#6 | – |
| 19 |  Côte d'Ivoire | 3.6 | 5.6 ·#13 | – |
| 20 |  Australia | 3.3 | 2.8 ·#22 | – |
| 21 |  IR Iran | 2.6 | -2.0 ·#38 | – |
| 22 |  Croatia | 2.5 | 5.0 ·#16 | – |
| 23 |  Congo DR | 1.6 | -2.4 ·#40 | – |
| 24 |  Paraguay | 1.1 | -3.0 ·#42 | – |
| 25 |  Ecuador | 1.1 | 5.1 ·#15 | – |
| 26 |  Ghana | 1.0 | -3.0 ·#43 | – |
| 27 |  Cabo Verde | 1.0 | -1.3 ·#36 | – |
| 28 |  Sweden | 0.3 | 4.5 ·#19 | – |
| 29 |  Uruguay | 0.2 | 3.1 ·#21 | – |
| 30 |  South Africa | 0.1 | 0.5 ·#30 | – |
| 31 |  Austria | -0.1 | -2.3 ·#39 | – |
| 32 |  Korea Republic | -0.3 | 1.5 ·#27 | – |
| 33 |  Türkiye | -0.6 | -0.0 ·#31 | – |
| 34 |  Senegal | -0.6 | 1.9 ·#25 | – |
| 35 |  Bosnia and Herzegovina | -0.6 | 2.5 ·#23 | – |
| 36 |  Algeria | -1.1 | 1.8 ·#26 | – |
| 37 |  Scotland | -1.4 | -1.0 ·#33 | – |
| 38 |  Saudi Arabia | -1.7 | -1.0 ·#34 | – |
| 39 |  Czechia | -3.3 | -1.4 ·#37 | – |
| 40 |  Curaçao | -4.9 | -7.1 ·#48 | – |
| 41 |  New Zealand | -4.9 | 2.5 ·#24 | – |
| 42 |  Panama | -5.3 | 1.1 ·#28 | – |
| 43 |  Qatar | -5.5 | -3.0 ·#41 | – |
| 44 |  Jordan | -5.9 | -3.3 ·#45 | – |
| 45 |  Haiti | -6.6 | -3.2 ·#44 | – |
| 46 |  Tunisia | -7.9 | -4.5 ·#46 | – |
| 47 |  Uzbekistan | -8.0 | -1.1 ·#35 | – |
| 48 |  Iraq | -9.3 | -6.6 ·#47 | – |
How this is computed
Two ratings come off one openskill engine. The results rating is fed the actual result, the move scaled by a capped goal margin; the performance rating is fed an expected goal margin built from the box score (shots on target dominate; possession is ignored; saves are excluded as circular). Penalty-shootout knockouts count as the draws they were after 120 minutes. Teams are ranked by a conservative estimate (μ−3σ), which keeps barely-tested sides humble early.
Every team starts equal — no seeds, no priors — so the Matchday 1 order is close to meaningless, and that's the honest point, not a bug. During the group stage the played-match graph splits into separate clusters; cross-cluster ranks don't fully settle until the knockouts connect the field. The stat weights were learned across the 2018 and 2022 World Cups (128 matches). Every number here is derived from the match records at build time, never hand-typed.