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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 128
Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei Popyrin — 3-6 6-3 6-2 6-4
 Alexei Popyrin✓ | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
 Grigor Dimitrov | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Final · Monday, August 31, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Fourteen double faults is what this came down to. Dimitrov, once world No. 3 and here as a qualifier ranked outside the top 130, broke in the sixth game and served out the opening set in thirty-five minutes; from there his second serve went. Popyrin broke twice in the second, and with the match level at a set apiece and 2-2 in the third — Dimitrov 15-0 on his own serve — heavy rain took them off for close to an hour. Popyrin broke immediately on the resumption, broke again from 15-40 down at 40-15, and took the third 6-2 in thirty-eight minutes of actual play. He won four straight games for a second consecutive set to lead 5-1 in the fourth, was pegged back to 5-4, and served out to love. Two double faults to Dimitrov's fourteen, six breaks to three, 113 points to 100 in two hours thirty-three. It is Popyrin's first Grand Slam win of the year after three consecutive first-round exits, on the court where he beat Novak Djokovic two years ago. "He was a top-three player in the world and he's still playing qualies, which is absolutely ridiculous and something that is incredibly tough to do," he said of Dimitrov. Alejandro Tabilo is next.
Grigor DimitrovRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 128 is the widest the net ever gets: 64 matches a draw, spread across three days, every seed in action and every qualifier playing the biggest match of the year. This half of the bracket filled in late — qualifying ran a day long after rain pushed the last round to Friday, so these names were still blank slots on draw night. First-round losers leave with $140,000. The winner draws Hanfmann or Tabilo in the Round of 64.
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Two men ranked outside the top 125 who have both been considerably better than that, meeting in a first round that would have been a third-week match five years ago. Dimitrov had to qualify to get here — at 35, ranked 137, 8–13 on the season — but the hard-court ledger behind him is 340–208 and he made the semi-finals on this court in 2019. Popyrin is 130th and 11–19, with a 119–123 hard record and a fourth round here in 2024. The head-to-head is 2–2 and every meeting was on hard. Three qualifying wins is real match play, and that is the thumb on the scale: Dimitrov in four, with at least one set decided by a tiebreak he has no business winning at this point and wins anyway.
The case for Grigor Dimitrov
57% to winHe arrives with three matches already played and won this week, which at 35 matters more than it used to. The career hard-court record (340–208) is the deepest on the court by a distance, and a 2019 semi-final here says the venue suits the game. He beat Popyrin in straight sets the last time they met on a hard court that mattered — Shanghai 2024, 7-6(5) 6-2.
The case for Alexei Popyrin
43% to winPopyrin is eight years younger, seeded nowhere but ranked seven places higher, and the one time these two met at this tournament he won it — the 2021 second round, 7-6(4) 7-6(4) 4-0 before Dimitrov retired. A first-strike server against a 35-year-old playing his fourth match in six days is a fair bet in the fourth set, and Popyrin's 11–19 season means he has nothing invested in protecting a ranking.
Both cases written 2026-08-29, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Grigor Dimitrov to advance ✗ WRONG
“Three qualifying wins of match play, a 340–208 career hard-court record, and a 2–2 head-to-head against an opponent going 11–19 this season.”
Locked 2026-08-29 01:40 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Grigor DimitrovAlexei PopyrinPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Storylines
- Dimitrov is here through qualifying for the first time in his career — ranked 137 at 35, a decade after he was world No. 3.
- Their last meeting at this tournament ended in a Dimitrov retirement: the 2021 second round, Popyrin leading 7-6(4) 7-6(4) 4-0.
- Dimitrov's 2019 run to the semi-finals here remains his deepest at any major; Popyrin's fourth round in 2024 is his.
Head to head
Four meetings, all on hard, split 2–2. Dimitrov took Shanghai 2024 7-6(5) 6-2 and Melbourne 2021 in three; Popyrin took Toronto 2024 in three and was two sets up here in 2021 when Dimitrov retired.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Court & schedule: Court 12, Monday 31 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-30)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.