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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Taylor Fritz vs 
Francisco Cerundolo
Round of 32
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Taylor Fritz to advance · locked 2026-09-04 00:10 UTCPrediction
Fritz has not dropped a set and has just played the most one-sided match of his career at a major, conceding two games to Mattia Bellucci in 98 minutes on Arthur Ashe. He was the runner-up here in 2024 and a quarter-finalist in 2025, is 273-164 on hard courts for his career, and has reached the second week in New York for three straight years. Cerundolo, seeded 24th, arrived at his first US Open third round by way of a five-setter against the 36-year-old Jan-Lennard Struff, 7-5 5-7 6-4 2-6 6-3 in the Thursday heat — a match Struff himself said Cerundolo deserved. That is the shape of the problem: an Argentine whose game and record are built on clay, 66-64 on hard courts for a career, playing a home player on a fast court with a day's less recovery. Their two previous meetings were both on clay and split, Cerundolo winning in four at Roland Garros in 2023 and Fritz in three in the Madrid quarter-finals a year later; they have never met on a hard court, which is where the Elo gap of 65 points understates things. Fritz said after the Bellucci match that not spending energy early is the point, and that one day off is not enough to recover from five sets. He has the better half of both arguments here.
The case for Taylor Fritz
74% to winA 2024 finalist on his own courts, 273-164 on the surface, and coming off a match in which he held all ten service games and broke eight times. He has spent 3hr18 on court across two rounds; Cerundolo has spent well over five hours and finished his second round in the afternoon sun. On a quick court against a clay-court baseliner, Fritz's serve is the whole argument.
The case for Francisco Cerundolo
26% to winCerundolo has won a set from Fritz before and beaten him over four, and he is 29-17 this season. He has just come through the sort of match — five sets, a two-set lead surrendered, a 36-year-old refusing to go away — that either empties a player or convinces him. And Fritz's route so far tells you nothing: Darwin Blanch and Mattia Bellucci are ranked 260th and 95th, so this is the first real ball-striking test he has faced.
Both cases written 2026-09-04, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Taylor FritzFrancisco CerundoloPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-03.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-03.
The briefing
Storylines
- Fritz conceded two games to Bellucci in the second round, the fewest he has ever given up in a Grand Slam match.
- Cerundolo reached a US Open third round for the first time, in his sixth appearance, via a five-setter with Jan-Lennard Struff.
- Fritz was the runner-up here in 2024 and a quarter-finalist in 2025.
- Their two previous meetings were both on clay and split one apiece; they have never met on a hard court.
- Cerundolo is 66-64 on hard courts for his career against Fritz's 273-164.
Head to head
One each, both on clay. Cerundolo won 3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5 in the third round of Roland Garros in 2023; Fritz won 6-1 3-6 6-3 in the Madrid quarter-finals in April 2024. This is their first meeting on a hard court and their first at a hard-court major.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-03.
Watch: Third-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-03)
Weather: Tonight carries a 29% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 a.m., mostly cloudy with a low near 74°F, which is the night session's only worry. Friday has improved sharply: the afternoon forecast had it at 46% and it is now a 21% slight chance after 2 p.m., mostly sunny, high near 83°F easing to 81°F, with the same 21% before 8 p.m. and then clearing. Saturday is the clean day — mostly sunny, 79°F, 3% — and Sunday holds at 75°F on 12%. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-03)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen men's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
Round of 64
Round of 16