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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 16
Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx — 6-3 4-6 7-5 7-5
 Alexander Blockx✓ | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
 Francisco Cerundolo | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Final · Monday, September 7, 2026 · Round of 16
Result
Blockx had won one Grand Slam main-draw match in his life before this fortnight, and this was his first on Arthur Ashe. He leaves it the first Belgian man to reach a US Open quarter-final and the youngest Belgian into a major's last eight in the Open Era. He also played most of it hurt: sharp pain in a rib arrived in the second game, the physio came out at 3-2, and Blockx was being treated on the court while Cerundolo ran up nine break points in the opening set and converted one. That was the match. Cerundolo took three of seventeen and earned none at all in the fourth set. At 5-5 in the third Blockx went 0-40 down on serve and won five straight points, two of them on aces at 117 and 114 mph; Cerundolo double-faulted the set away two games later, and was broken serving to stay in the match as well, the last point a forehand into the net. Blockx's own account of the turn was less technical: the doctor, he said, gave him some magical medication, and he might use it again in two days. He plays Khachanov or Tien for a semi-final place.
Francisco CerundoloRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 16 is the fourth round, and the point at which a Grand Slam stops being a draw and becomes a tournament you can hold in your head: eight matches, played across Sunday and Monday, and the eight who come through are the quarter-finalists. Everyone still here has won three matches on these courts, so the seedings have stopped being a guide and the form of the fortnight has taken over.
Francisco CerundoloAlexander Blockx✓Round of 32
Round of 16
What we know now
Court: Arthur Ashe Stadium
Match length: 3:16
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Neither of these two had reached the fourth round here before this week, and neither has been past it anywhere: the winner plays a first Grand Slam quarter-final. They have met once, in the Madrid round of 16 in April, and Blockx won it 7-6(8) 6-2 — on clay, during the week he beat Auger-Aliassime and Casper Ruud either side of it to reach a first Masters 1000 semi-final. Hard-court Elo has this at about 58-42 to the Argentine, and mostly on volume: 67-64 on hard against Blockx's 22-23, a season of 30-17 against 24-15, and seven years of tour-level matches against two. What complicates it is the state each arrives in. Cerundolo has just played three hours and forty minutes against Fritz on the back of a five-set win over Struff — nine sets and better than seven hours across two matches — and won today from two sets down while losing the points count 148 to 150. Blockx spent two hours forty-five putting away a fifth seed who was already spent, and did it with seventeen aces, 86% of his first-serve points and sixteen holds from eighteen. That serve is the thing likeliest to decide this: at 6'4" it is the one weapon on the court that does not care how tired anybody is, and Cerundolo's return has to be the answer to it. A rest day sits between here and Monday, which is what keeps this near the ratings rather than well past them. I take Cerundolo, shaded down for the mileage.
The case for Francisco Cerundolo
55% to winCerundolo is the more established player by a distance — five ATP titles, a Queen's Club championship this June, a career high of No. 18, and 67-64 on hard courts against an opponent barely above even at 22-23. Hard-court Elo has him 53 points clear. He has also just proved he can win a match he was losing: two sets down to the ninth seed on Ashe, 0-40 on his own serve at 3-4 in the fifth with Fritz two points from serving it out, and he took five straight points and the match. Whatever the mileage costs him, a player who has come from two sets down twice in his career has now done it in the biggest match of his life, and he gets a day to recover.
The case for Alexander Blockx
45% to winBlockx has beaten Cerundolo already, in Madrid in April, and did it in straight sets on the surface that should have suited the Argentine better. He is 21, he is Belgium's No. 1, and his ceiling this season is a Masters 1000 semi-final built on beating Auger-Aliassime, Cerundolo and the defending champion in the same week. Today he hit seventeen aces to five, won 86% of his first-serve points, held sixteen of eighteen and took 136 points to 91 against the fifth seed. He is also the fresher man by nearly five hours of tennis across the last two rounds, and at 6'4" his serve is the one shot in this match that a tired opponent cannot negotiate with.
Both cases written 2026-09-05, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Francisco Cerundolo to advance ✗ WRONG
“Hard-court Elo has it 58-42 on volume and tour-level experience, and he has a rest day to absorb three hours forty. Shaded well down because Blockx won their only meeting, is five hours fresher across the last two rounds, and has the bigger serve on a surface that rewards it.”
Locked 2026-09-05 20:50 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Francisco CerundoloAlexander BlockxPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-05.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-05.
Storylines
- Neither man had reached the US Open fourth round before this week, and neither has ever been past a Grand Slam fourth round — the winner reaches a first major quarter-final.
- Blockx leads the head-to-head 1-0: the Madrid round of 16 in April, 7-6(8) 6-2 on clay, in the week he reached a first Masters 1000 semi-final.
- Cerundolo has played nine sets and better than seven hours in his last two matches; he beat Fritz from two sets down today while losing the points count 148 to 150.
- Blockx beat the fifth seed Flavio Cobolli with seventeen aces, 86% of his first-serve points and sixteen holds from eighteen.
- Alexander Zverev is the only top-ten player left in this half of the draw.
Head to head
One meeting, Blockx leading 1-0 — the Madrid round of 16 in April, 7-6(8) 6-2 on clay, during his run to a first Masters 1000 semi-final.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-05.
Court & schedule: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Monday 7 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-07)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.