US Open 2026 pages
Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Daniil Medvedev vs 
Arthur Rinderknech
Round of 32
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Daniil Medvedev to advance · locked 2026-09-02 23:55 UTCPrediction
Medvedev has been through this draw so far without being asked a question: 6-4 6-2 6-4 over Hugo Gaston, 6-1 6-3 7-5 over the wild card Sebastian Gorzny, and a career record on hard courts of 365-132 that nobody else left in this quarter approaches. He won this tournament in 2021 and has reached three of its finals. Rinderknech, the 26th seed, has just played the best match of his fortnight and possibly his year: 22 aces and 66 winners past Jaume Munar, a first set that swung from 2-5 down to a tiebreak, and a tenth career win at the US Open — more than he has managed at the other three majors combined. They have met twice and split them, and the split is instructive: Medvedev won the first at this tournament in 2022, 6-2 7-5 6-3; Rinderknech won the most recent, in the Shanghai semi-finals last October, 4-6 6-2 6-4. Rinderknech's route to a win is 22 aces a match. Medvedev's is to make him play a third shot, which is the thing he does better than almost anyone alive.
The case for Daniil Medvedev
74% to winMedvedev is 365-132 on hard courts, a champion here and a three-time finalist, and he has dropped one set in two rounds. He returns from the back fence, which is the single worst thing that can happen to a server who needs free points; Rinderknech won 85% behind his first serve on Wednesday and will not be allowed anything like that. Medvedev is also the fresher man — 2 hours 46 minutes of tennis in two matches against Rinderknech's 3 hours 6 minutes in one.
The case for Arthur Rinderknech
26% to winRinderknech beat him nine months ago in a Masters semi-final, and he is playing better now than he was then: 22 aces, 66 winners and a hold record that never wobbled against Munar. He is 6ft 5in and hits through a court, and Medvedev's defence works best against players who need the rally. This is also Rinderknech's best tournament — ten career wins here, a fourth round last year, and a New York night session is where big serving is worth most.
Both cases written 2026-09-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
The briefing
Storylines
- Medvedev won this tournament in 2021 and has reached three US Open finals.
- Rinderknech's win over Jaume Munar was his tenth at the US Open — more than at the other three majors combined.
- Rinderknech hit 22 aces and 66 winners in the second round; Munar managed three and 25.
- Rinderknech beat Medvedev in the Shanghai semi-finals last October, 4-6 6-2 6-4.
- Medvedev has dropped one set in two rounds, to the wild card Sebastian Gorzny.
Head to head
One each. Medvedev won their first meeting at this tournament, 6-2 7-5 6-3 in the 2022 second round; Rinderknech took the most recent, 4-6 6-2 6-4 in the Shanghai semi-finals last October.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Watch: Third-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Wednesday night is wet: showers and thunderstorms likely at 64% on a low near 72°F, which is the night session's problem and the roofs' answer. Thursday stays unsettled — 83°F, showers and thunderstorms likely, again at 64% — and eases to 33% overnight. Friday improves without quite clearing: mostly sunny and 82°F, with a slight shower chance at 23%. Saturday is the clean day, sunny and 78°F on 2%, and Sunday is sunny at 74°F. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-02)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen men's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
