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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Semi-finals
Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe
Semi-finals
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ESPN Deportes · ESPN app
My pick: Ben Shelton to advance · locked 2026-09-09 14:10 UTCPrediction
Shelton leads the head-to-head 3-1 and won the last one in straight sets, and Tennis Abstract's hard-court Elo has him 1948.5 to Tiafoe's 1883.7 — about 59-41 over three sets and a little more over five. The usual caveat applies with more force than usual: that table was last updated on 31 August, so it has not seen either man play a point of this tournament, and what they have done in it points the same way. Shelton beat the second seed and defending champion from a set down and then a set behind again, having been 0-17 against top-three opponents in his life; Tiafoe beat the seventh seed in straight sets and then came from two sets down in the quarter-final. Recovery is the one thing that shades back the other way, and it shades less than it looks: Shelton finished at 3:33 a.m. on Wednesday, the latest any match has ended at this tournament, but Tiafoe's own quarter-final ran 4h39 and both of them get Wednesday and Thursday off. I take Shelton, at rather less than the ratings say, because Tiafoe has been in this round three times and Shelton's one previous win over him here is three years old.
The case for Ben Shelton
62% to winShelton has won three of the four, including the last one — Washington, July 2025, in straight sets — and the one he lost is two years old. He has four titles in 2026, more than anyone on tour but Sinner, took Montreal last month without dropping a set, and is 34-8 on North American hard courts since July of last year. He has played all five of his matches on Arthur Ashe and has not been broken more than he could afford on any of them. Against Alcaraz he served at 149 mph, held twelve times from twelve in the fifth set, and closed a first-to-ten tiebreak from 3-5 down — the first American to beat Alcaraz at a major at the fourteenth attempt, and the end of an eighteen-match Grand Slam winning streak. He is 23, left-handed, and his career high is No. 5. "The most enjoyable match that I've had in my career, for sure," he said afterwards. Asked about a two-day turnaround: "Two days? Yeah, I think that'd be all right."
The case for Frances Tiafoe
38% to winTiafoe is 29-11 lifetime at the US Open and has never won more than fifteen matches at any other major — this is his third semi-final here, and no American man since Andre Agassi has reached three in a century. He beat Daniil Medvedev, the seventh seed, in straight sets in the fourth round, and then came from two sets down against Alex Michelsen to win a deciding-set tiebreak: the fifth comeback from two sets down in a US Open men's quarter-final in the Open era, and the first since Federer in 2014. He has won five of six deciding-set tiebreaks this season. The rebuilt team is showing: he shut his 2025 season down in October, split with his coach David Witt, hired the sports scientist Mark Kovacs, who has known him since he was twelve, and won the biggest title of his career at Halle in June. He reached the Cincinnati final days after surgery on his right hand. He returns to the top ten on Monday for the first time since 2023 whatever happens on Friday.
Both cases written 2026-09-09, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Ben SheltonFrances TiafoePlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-05.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level); ATP Lexus Head2Head · as of 2026-09-09.
The briefing
Storylines
- The third all-American men's Grand Slam semi-final of this century, after Agassi beat Robby Ginepri here in 2005 and Taylor Fritz beat Tiafoe here in 2024. Tiafoe has now been in two of the three.
- An American is guaranteed a place in Sunday's final. No American man has won a major since Andy Roddick at this tournament in 2003, and none had reached the final between Roddick in 2006 and Fritz in 2024.
- Whoever wins, there will be a Black American man in the US Open final for the first time since Arthur Ashe in 1972, and in any major final for the first time since MaliVai Washington at Wimbledon in 1996.
- Six Americans reached the quarter-finals, the most since 2002; the three American men tie the most since 1995. The draw around them collapsed — Sinner withdrew before the tournament, Djokovic lost in the first round, and six of the top ten seeds were out by the end of the third round.
- Tiafoe has played four of his five matches on Louis Armstrong Stadium, where he is 10-0. Shelton has played all five of his on Ashe. Friday is on Ashe.
- Shelton is coached by his father Bryan, who reached No. 55 in 1992 and who was heard courtside on Tuesday night asking the stadium: "Are you not entertained."
- David Witt coached Jessica Pegula before he coached Tiafoe, and Pegula plays the other half of this weekend's semi-finals on Thursday.
Head to head
Four meetings, three to Shelton: the 2023 US Open quarter-final, 6-2 3-6 7-6(7) 6-2; the 2024 Houston final on clay, 7-5 4-6 6-3; and the Washington quarter-final in July 2025, 7-6(2) 6-4. Tiafoe's win is the 2024 US Open third round, 4-6 7-5 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3, taken from two sets to one down. They are 1-1 here, and Shelton has won the most recent meeting.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level); ATP Lexus Head2Head · as of 2026-09-09.
Watch: The semi-finals are on ESPN, with ESPN Deportes carrying the Spanish-language call — Juan Martín del Potro has been in that booth since the quarter-finals — and every court streaming in the ESPN app on an ESPN Unlimited plan. ABC's three Sundays this fortnight were opening day, the round of 16 and the men's final, so this one is cable and app only. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-09-08)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-09)
Weather: Today's quarter-finals are mostly sunny and 82°F with a 1% chance of rain, and tonight is partly cloudy at 75°F with a 20% shower chance late. Thursday, for the women's semi-finals, is 83°F and the week's first genuinely wet day — a 25% chance of showers through the afternoon and 37% overnight. Friday's men's semi-finals are the pick of the week: sunny, 78°F, mostly clear at night. Saturday's women's final is mostly sunny and 76°F with thunderstorms creeping in after dark, and Sunday's men's final carries that 45% chance of showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon at 79°F. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-09)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The semi-finals are the last four, played on Thursday for the women and Friday for the men. Everyone still here has won five matches on these courts. Two of the four go out inside two days; the other two play the final.
