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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Nadia Podoroska vs Simona Waltert — 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3
 Nadia Podoroska✓ | 4 | 7 | 6 |
 Simona Waltert | 6 | 65 | 3 |
Final · Monday, August 31, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Podoroska is in this draw at all on a protected ranking, as the replacement for Laura Siegemund, and ranked 449th in the world; this is her first Grand Slam main-draw win in two years and eight months. Waltert had it for most of two sets — a break at 4-5 to take the first, an escape from 1-3 and 0-40 in the second — and then could not close either the second set or the match. Podoroska broke for 6-5, was broken back, and won the tiebreak 7-5. In the third Waltert twice broke to lead before Swiss agency copy has a short interruption for light rain at 3-3, after which she lost the last three games. Waltert hit forty-four winners to Podoroska's fifteen and sixty-three unforced errors to her thirty-three; Podoroska won the match by six points, 111 to 105, in 2 hours 48 minutes. She is the only South American left in the women's draw, and plays Iga Swiatek next.
Nadia PodoroskaRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Round of 128 in Świątek's waiting room: the winner of this quiet clay-transplant fixture almost certainly draws the six-time major champion next, which gives an under-the-radar opener the strangest of prizes. Podoroska's comeback and Waltert's debut are both stories the tour files under 'perseverance'; one of them gets the Ashe-adjacent chapter. Sunday through Tuesday; $140,000 to the loser.
What we know now
Court: Court 13
Match length: 2:48
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Waltert, narrowly, in the round's most under-the-radar fixture. Podoroska's No. 447 is an injury-era artifact — the 2020 Roland-Garros semi-finalist has played five matches all season (1–4) — while the Swiss at No. 85 has played a full year (11–15) and arrives with working match rhythm, if not much momentum. Both games were built on clay; neither has a US Open win (this is Waltert's debut, and Podoroska has never won here). The projection therefore leans on the only meaningful split: matches played. Waltert's rhythm against Podoroska's rust, in a match where the first break of serve may be the last. If the Argentine's 2020-vintage forehand shows up healthy, class flips it; that is a real possibility priced into the number. Waltert in three.
The case for Nadia Podoroska
44% to winPodoroska has been a major semi-finalist — a class ceiling Waltert has never approached — and her heavy topspin game punishes opponents who lack put-away power, which is Waltert's known gap. Five matches of rust reads badly until the second week of a comeback, which this could be; her floor at full health wins comfortably.
The case for Simona Waltert
56% to winWaltert has played a season and Podoroska has played a month — rhythm is the entire currency of a first-rounder between clay games on a hard court. The Swiss's flat backhand travels better to acrylic, and a debut against the field's rustiest opponent is as gentle as US Open introductions come.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Simona Waltert to advance ✗ WRONG
“A season of rhythm against a month of comeback — class is Podoroska's, but matches played is the split that decides round one.”
Locked 2026-08-28 06:15 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Nadia PodoroskaSimona WaltertPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Storylines
- Podoroska — the 2020 Roland-Garros semi-finalist — is ranked No. 447 after an injury-wrecked season of five matches.
- Waltert, at No. 85, is making her US Open main-draw debut; a win would be her first at any hard-court major.
- First meeting; the winner takes on eighth-seeded Iga Świątek, in all likelihood, in the Round of 64.
Head to head
Never met — two clay-built games colliding on the surface neither would have chosen, for the right to face a six-time major champion.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Court & schedule: Court 13, Monday 31 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-30)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.