US Open 2026 pages
Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Anastasia Potapovavs
Tereza Valentova
Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Anastasia Potapova to advance · locked 2026-08-28 05:50 UTCPrediction
Potapova, in the closest seed-versus-riser call of the women's first round. The 24th seed's 27–19 season and 129–110 hard-court career give her the volume argument; Valentova, 19 and already at No. 57, gives every qualitative one — the Czech teenager's clean, early ball-striking has produced a 29–18 hard-court record at an age when most players are still learning the surface, and the ratings systems score this a coin flip. First meeting. Potapova's experience in exactly these fixtures — she has been the seeded target of risers for years — is the thin edge: she knows the script, including the part where the favorite must survive the first set's freewheeling. If Valentova lands early, the upset is fully live. Potapova in three.
The case for Anastasia Potapova
53% to winPotapova has the seed, the season volume, and a decade's head start in tour craft; her flat power matches Valentova's own game with more mileage behind it. Third sets between a seed and a teenager usually go to the player who has lost more of them — experience is the last shot in the bag, and it is hers.
The case for Tereza Valentova
47% to winValentova is the draw's stealth riser: 19, No. 57 and climbing, with hard-court numbers that already outrate the seed she faces. Czech teenagers arriving at Slams have been the sport's most reliable bull market — and nothing in Potapova's season suggests she wins the big points against fearless pace.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Anastasia PotapovaTereza ValentovaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-27.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
The briefing
Storylines
- Valentova, 19, is the women's draw's stealth threat — a 29–18 career hard-court record and a top-60 ranking before her second full season closes.
- Potapova's 24th seeding rides a 27-win season; her US Open best remains a 2024 third round.
- First meeting — and another entry in the draw's Czech-youth theme, one section over from Bartůňková's debut.
Head to head
Never met — the seed has never faced the teenager whose numbers most resemble her own at that age.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Watch: Opening-round coverage starts Sunday at 11 a.m. ET across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, including a whip-around channel for the early rounds. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned — the US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, so day-one courts land the night of 29 August. This one profiles as a field-court match. (US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-27)
Weather: The opening window looks kind: mostly sunny and 85–86°F Sunday and Monday, with thunderstorm chances only creeping in on Tuesday. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs if the sky turns; the field courts wait it out. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-27)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
Round of 128 with the ratings and the seedings in open disagreement: the numbers make Potapova–Valentova a coin flip, which for a 24th seed against a 19-year-old is itself the story. The winner gets Jeanjean or a qualifier in the Round of 64 — as soft a follow-up as this draw offers — before Andreeva's section of the quarter comes calling. Watch the first four games; they will tell you which script this follows. Sunday through Tuesday.
Anastasia PotapovaTereza ValentovaRound of 128
Anastasia PotapovaTereza ValentovaRound of 64