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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Tamara Zidansek vs Maria Timofeeva — 6-3 7-5
 Maria Timofeeva✓ | 6 | 7 |
 Tamara Zidansek | 3 | 5 |
Final · Monday, August 31, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Zidansek, through qualifying past Bianca Andreescu and into her first Slam main draw since the 2025 Australian Open, went 0-4 down and never quite got the match back. She recovered a break twice in the second set to lead 4-3, then worked three break points in the next game; Timofeeva saved all three and broke instead, failed to serve it out at 5-4, and closed the twelfth game without losing a point. Twenty-six winners to eleven, 80 points to 61, ten break points to convert six, 1 hour 46 minutes.
Tamara ZidansekRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 128 is the widest the net ever gets: 64 matches a draw, spread across three days, every seed in action and every qualifier playing the biggest match of the year. This half of the bracket filled in late — qualifying ran a day long after rain pushed the last round to Friday, so these names were still blank slots on draw night. First-round losers leave with $140,000. The winner draws Quevedo or Mertens in the Round of 64.
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Timofeeva is 92nd and 12–14 on the season, making her US Open main-draw debut; Zidansek is a 146th-ranked qualifier, 8–7, who reached the second round here in 2021 and has 134 career hard-court matches to Timofeeva's 43. The hard-court Elos are 32 points apart — essentially level. Experience on the site and three qualifying wins nudge it, but this is the closest women's match in the batch. Timofeeva in three, narrowly.
The case for Tamara Zidansek
46% to winZidansek has played here before, has 134 career hard-court matches against 43, and has three wins on these courts this week. A 32-point Elo gap is nothing, and she is the one with a US Open second round behind her.
The case for Maria Timofeeva
54% to winTimofeeva is 54 ranking places higher, four years younger and 12–14 against 8–7 — comparable form against better opposition. She also arrives without a week of qualifying in the legs, which in a three-set match on a warm afternoon is the tiebreak.
Both cases written 2026-08-29, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Maria Timofeeva to advance ✓ RIGHT
“Fifty-four ranking places and fresh legs, in a match the ratings call level.”
Locked 2026-08-29 01:40 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Tamara ZidansekMaria TimofeevaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Storylines
- A 32-point hard-court Elo gap — the closest women's matchup in this batch.
- Timofeeva is making her US Open main-draw debut at 22.
- Zidansek's second round here in 2021 is the only US Open main-draw experience on the court.
Head to head
They have never met. Their hard-court Elo ratings are 32 points apart.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Court & schedule: Court 9, Monday 31 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-30)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.