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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 64
Elise Mertens vs Maria Timofeeva — 6-2 7-6(5)
 Elise Mertens✓ | 6 | 7 |
 Maria Timofeeva | 2 | 65 |
Final · Thursday, September 3, 2026 · Round of 64
Result
Elise Mertens made two break points in the opening game of the match and took neither, then won the next five games. That was the first set; the second was the awkward one. Maria Timofeeva broke for 3-1, Mertens answered with four games in a row, and then failed to serve it out — Timofeeva's second break of the afternoon, and her second from the only two chances she had all match. Mertens won the tiebreak 7-5, reaching match point at 6-5 on her own serve. She had the better of nearly everything else: 72 points to 54, 22 unforced errors to 33, four breaks from seven. Mertens is 30, Belgium's No. 1, seeded 23 in an eleventh consecutive US Open, and arrived here four days after losing the Monterrey final; her best runs in New York are the quarter-finals of 2019 and 2020, and all six of her major titles are in doubles. Timofeeva, 22, has represented Uzbekistan since last October and had never won a main-draw match here before this week. Mertens leads their head-to-head 2-0, both meetings this year.
Elise MertensRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 halves the draw again: 32 women's matches across Wednesday and Thursday, every one of them between players who have already won here this week. The seeds who came through the opening round now meet opponents with form behind them rather than a ranking.
Round of 128
Round of 64
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
A rematch of a Wimbledon second round nine weeks old, and the shape of that match is the best guide to this one. Timofeeva won the first set 6-2 and then took three games in the next two, losing 2-6 6-3 6-0 — she was the better player for forty minutes and could not sustain it. Nothing since has changed the underlying arithmetic: Mertens is ranked 20th and has been inside the top 30 for most of a decade, Timofeeva is 86th and 15-16 for the season. But Mertens is not arriving fresh. She lost the Monterrey final to Diane Parry two days before the tournament began and said publicly she was not fully fit, and she then needed an hour and 48 minutes to beat the 107th-ranked Kaitlin Quevedo in straight sets while being outhit 24 winners to 19. Timofeeva's first round was the more convincing performance of the two — 26 winners to 11 against the qualifier Tamara Zidansek, six breaks from ten chances — though she was also broken four times and served for it a game early. Mertens by the same route as at Wimbledon: not the first set, but the two after it.
The case for Elise Mertens
71% to winMertens has won the only meeting, has the seeding, and has the record: a Wimbledon quarter-final in July at 30 — her fourth at a major and her first since 2020 — plus two US Open quarter-finals of her own and a doubles title on these courts. She won 79% of her first-serve points against Quevedo and gave up a single break point in the match. Timofeeva has never played a US Open main draw before this week, and second rounds at Slams are where a 20th-ranked player's baseline usually tells.
The case for Maria Timofeeva
29% to winTimofeeva has already beaten Mertens over a set this year and knows the match is winnable — at Wimbledon she took the opener 6-2 before it turned. At 22 she is eight years younger over what is likely to be a long, humid afternoon, and against Zidansek she hit 26 winners to 11 and won 80 points to 61. Mertens has played a tour final and a first round in the space of four days, said before the tournament that she was not fully fit, and has never been past the quarter-finals here.
Both cases written 2026-09-01, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Elise Mertens to advance ✓ RIGHT
“The head-to-head, the seeding and a decade of top-30 consistency — with the caveat that Timofeeva won the first set of their only meeting and Mertens came in off a final with two days' rest.”
Locked 2026-09-01 23:40 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Elise MertensMaria TimofeevaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-01.
Storylines
- One previous meeting: Mertens won the Wimbledon second round this year 2-6 6-3 6-0, losing the first set and then all but one game of the last two.
- Mertens arrived in New York two days after losing the Monterrey final to Diane Parry, and said beforehand she was not fully fit.
- Mertens beat Kaitlin Quevedo 6-4 6-4 in an hour and 48 minutes, winning 79% of her first-serve points while being outhit 24 winners to 19.
- Timofeeva beat the qualifier Tamara Zidansek 6-3 7-5, hitting 26 winners to 11 and converting six break points from ten.
- Timofeeva is at her first US Open; Mertens is at her tenth, with quarter-finals here in 2019 and 2020 and the 2019 doubles title.
Head to head
One meeting, in the Wimbledon second round on 29 June 2026: Mertens won 2-6 6-3 6-0. This is their first on a hard court.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-01.
Court & schedule: Court 7, Thursday 3 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.