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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32
Naomi Osaka vs 
Elise Mertens
Round of 32
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My pick: Naomi Osaka to advance · locked 2026-09-03 18:40 UTCPrediction
Osaka is a two-time champion here and a semi-finalist last year, and she has needed two hours and change in each of her matches to reach this point: 7-6(6) 7-6(3) over Anastasia Zakharova on Ashe on Monday night, then 6-2 5-7 6-1 against Katerina Siniakova on Thursday, a match she led 5-3 in the second set before losing her serve in three consecutive games. Mertens has been the tidier of the two — 6-4 6-4 past Kaitlin Quevedo and 6-2 7-6(5) past Maria Timofeeva, 22 unforced errors in the second of those against Osaka's 29 in hers — and she got to New York four days after losing the Monterrey final, which is either form or mileage depending on how the first set goes. The head-to-head is Osaka's at 6-4, and she has won both meetings this season for the loss of nine games. Mertens' route is the one she has always taken against big hitters: absorb, extend, make an eleven-ace server play a fourth shot. The Elo tables have Osaka about a hundred points clear, which on a hard court is roughly two-thirds to one-third.
The case for Naomi Osaka
68% to winTwo US Open titles, a semi-final here last year, and eleven aces on Thursday against one of the better returners in the draw. She has won their last two meetings this season for nine games in total and leads 6-4 lifetime. 2026 has already brought her first quarter-finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and when her first serve lands there is no shot in Mertens' game that changes the direction of a rally.
The case for Elise Mertens
32% to winMertens has spent less time on court and made fewer errors getting here, and the one thing Osaka has repeatedly handed back this fortnight is a lead — two tiebreaks on Monday, 5-3 in the second set on Thursday. Mertens beat her at Indian Wells in 2024 and at Wuhan in 2017, both times by extending rallies rather than out-hitting her. A 30-year-old ranked 20 in the world, in a third round at an eleventh consecutive US Open, is not the draw a two-time champion wants this early.
Both cases written 2026-09-03, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Naomi OsakaElise MertensPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-03.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-03.
The briefing
Storylines
- Osaka is a two-time US Open champion, in 2018 and 2020, and reached the semi-finals here last year.
- Thursday was her eleventh Grand Slam match win of 2026 — double figures at the majors for the first time since 2019.
- She led Siniakova 5-3 in the second set on Thursday and then lost her serve three games running.
- Mertens is into the third round at an eleventh consecutive US Open; her best run here is a quarter-final.
- All six of Mertens' major titles are in doubles, and she was the world No. 1 in doubles in 2021.
Head to head
Osaka leads 6-4 and has won both meetings this season — 6-3 6-3 in the Bad Homburg round of 16 in June and 6-1 6-2 in the Toronto second round in August. Mertens' most recent win was 7-5 6-4 at Indian Wells in 2024; their first meeting, at Wuhan in 2017, also went to her in three sets, and one of her four is a walkover at the Gippsland Trophy in 2021.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-03.
Watch: Third-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-03)
Weather: This afternoon and tonight both carry a 33% chance of showers and thunderstorms, 82°F easing to a low near 74°F — the morning's forecast had the day at 58%, so Thursday has improved rather than cleared. Friday is now the unsettled one: partly sunny early, 81°F, showers and storms likely at 46% through the afternoon and 41% after dark, which is the third round's problem and the roofs' answer. Saturday is the clean day — sunny, 78°F, 1% — and Sunday holds, mostly sunny at 73°F on 2%. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-03)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen women's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
