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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32
Elena Rybakina vs Yuliia Starodubtseva — 7-6(6) 6-3
 Elena Rybakina✓ | 7 | 6 |
 Yuliia Starodubtseva | 66 | 3 |
Final · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
The scoreline says straight sets in 1h52; the first set says otherwise. Starodubtseva broke for 5-4 and served for it, went 0-40 down, saved all three break points and was broken on the fourth, Rybakina levelling with an angled drop shot. Rybakina held, Starodubtseva saved a set point on her own serve to force the tiebreak, came back from 4-2 down in it to earn a set point of her own at 6-5 — and Rybakina answered with an ace, one of twelve to Starodubtseva's one, then took the last three points for 8-6. Rybakina made 22 unforced errors in that set to Starodubtseva's six and hit 25 winners to six, which is the shape of the whole match: she was the wilder player and the only one with a weapon. The second set took barely half an hour. It also settled a debt — Starodubtseva had beaten her in the Roland Garros second round in May. "It wasn't my best performance, but Yuliia, she's a great player," Rybakina said. "Last time we had a battle too, and I'm glad I could win in straight sets." On the No. 1 ranking, now two wins away: "Not there yet. It's still very far."
Elena RybakinaRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen women's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
Round of 64
Round of 32
What we know now
Court: Grandstand
Match length: 1:52
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
The rematch of the biggest win of Starodubtseva's career. She beat Rybakina 3-6 6-1 7-6(4) in the second round at Roland Garros in May, from a set down, and it remains her only win over a top-ten player. Everything else in this match belongs to the second seed. Rybakina won the Australian Open in January and Wimbledon in 2022, is 43-14 for the season and 218-95 on hard courts for her career, and needed 68 minutes and 109 points to beat Jessica Bouzas Maneiro on Thursday night — seven aces to none, 81% of first-serve points won. Hard-court Elo separates them by 460 points. The caveats are real but small: Rybakina retired from her Cincinnati quarter-final against Iga Swiatek on 21 August with a left-leg injury, spent a week off the court, and cancelled a practice session the day before her second round — and then moved as though none of it had happened. Starodubtseva arrives having beaten the 32nd seed Maria Sakkari from a set down and three match points down, cramping by the end of it, into the last 32 here for the first time. Paris was on clay and this is not; a semi-final would make Rybakina world No. 1.
The case for Elena Rybakina
87% to winRybakina is 460 points clear on hard-court Elo, has two majors to Starodubtseva's zero, and beat Bouzas Maneiro in 68 minutes with seven aces to nil. Her career hard-court record is 218-95 against 41-42. Roland Garros was on clay, the surface that flattens her advantages the most; this is the one that magnifies them. She is also three wins from the world No. 1 ranking, which tends to concentrate a player.
The case for Yuliia Starodubtseva
13% to winStarodubtseva has already done this once. She beat Rybakina from a set down at Roland Garros in May, and she has just beaten the 32nd seed from a set down and three match points down, on a day when she hit no aces and 17 winners and won three fewer points than her opponent. She wins matches on other people's mistakes, which is the profile that troubles a big hitter, and Rybakina is two weeks removed from retiring mid-match with a leg injury.
Both cases written 2026-09-04, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Elena Rybakina to advance ✓ RIGHT
“460 Elo points and two majors against one clay-court meeting; the surface reverses what Paris rewarded.”
Locked 2026-09-04 05:50 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Elena RybakinaYuliia StarodubtsevaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-04.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-04.
Storylines
- A rematch of Starodubtseva's win over Rybakina at Roland Garros in May, the biggest of her career.
- Rybakina beat Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in 68 minutes on Thursday night, seven aces to none.
- Starodubtseva beat the 32nd seed Maria Sakkari from a set down and three match points down.
- Rybakina retired from her Cincinnati quarter-final on 21 August with a left-leg injury.
- A semi-final here would take Rybakina to world No. 1 for the first time.
Head to head
One meeting, this May: Starodubtseva won 3-6 6-1 7-6(4) in the Roland Garros round of 64, on clay.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-04.
Court & schedule: Grandstand, Saturday 5 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-04)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.