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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 64
Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin
Round of 64
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My pick: Jessica Pegula to advance · locked 2026-08-31 12:30 UTCPrediction
Pegula, and probably comfortably, unless the version of Sofia Kenin who won a major turns up again. The numbers tell most of it: No. 3 in the world against No. 110, 45–13 on the season against 6–20, a career hard-court record of 255–118 against 142–126. Pegula opened with 6-3 6-2 over Elena-Gabriela Ruse in 83 minutes on Ashe; Kenin took 1 hour 48 minutes to beat a 46-year-old Venus Williams 6-2 7-6(6) in the second match of Sunday's night session, on a day rain had already pushed seven first-round matches into Monday. The complication is the head-to-head, which is 3–2 rather than the rout the rankings imply — Kenin has beaten her twice, and Pegula's most recent win, the Charleston final in March 2025, went 6-3 7-5. Their last meeting on this court, in this same round in 2024, Pegula won 7-6(4) 6-3 and then went all the way to the final. That is the likeliest shape again: close for a set, then not.
The case for Jessica Pegula
88% to winPegula is the third seed and the No. 3 player in the world, on the surface she is best on and at the tournament where she has gone furthest — the final here in 2024. Her season is 45–13 and her career hard-court record is 255–118, more than a hundred wins clear of her opponent's. She leads the head-to-head 3–2 and owns both of the most recent meetings: the Charleston final in March 2025, 6-3 7-5, and this same round of this tournament in 2024, 7-6(4) 6-3, after which she reached the final. Her first round cost her 83 minutes.
The case for Sofia Kenin
12% to winKenin is the only one of the two with a major — the 2020 Australian Open, won at 21, the year she also reached the Roland Garros final. She has beaten Pegula twice, 5-7 7-5 6-2 at the Yarra Valley Classic and 4-6 6-1 6-4 at Roland Garros, both in 2021, which is what makes the 3–2 a real head-to-head rather than a formality. She is in the draw on a wildcard off a 6–20 season, so she arrives with nothing to protect, and she has just come through a second-set tiebreak against Venus Williams in front of a night crowd on Ashe. A player who can still do that on the biggest court is not a walkover.
Both cases written 2026-08-31, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Jessica PegulaSofia KeninPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-31.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
The briefing
Storylines
- A rematch of the second round here in 2024, which Pegula won 7-6(4) 6-3 on the way to the only Grand Slam final of her career.
- The head-to-head is 3–2 to Pegula across both surfaces; Kenin's two wins both came in 2021, at the Yarra Valley Classic and at Roland Garros.
- Kenin, the 2020 Australian Open champion, is ranked No. 110 and in the draw on a wildcard, 6–20 on the season.
- She reached this round by beating 46-year-old Venus Williams 6-2 7-6(6) in the second match of Sunday's night session on Ashe.
Head to head
Pegula leads 3–2 and holds the two most recent: 6-3 7-5 in the Charleston final in March 2025, and 7-6(4) 6-3 in the second round of this tournament in 2024. Kenin's wins both came in 2021 — 5-7 7-5 6-2 at the Yarra Valley Classic and 4-6 6-1 6-4 at Roland Garros. Their first meeting was at Quebec City in 2018, which Pegula won 4-6 6-2 6-4.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Watch: Second-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-31)
Weather: Rain is the story of the week's opening. Sunday's storms pushed seven first-round matches into Monday, and Monday is the driest day of the window rather than a dry one — mostly cloudy, high near 77°F, a 14% shower chance — before showers and thunderstorms become likely overnight under a low near 72°F. Tuesday is warmer and less settled: near 81°F with roughly even odds of showers and thunderstorms through the day and again after dark. Wednesday holds the same shape a few degrees cooler, near 76°F on a 51% chance, with storms likely again overnight. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-31)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 halves the draw again: 32 women's matches across Wednesday and Thursday, every one of them between players who have already won here this week. The seeds who came through the opening round now meet opponents with form behind them rather than a ranking.
