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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32
Jessica Pegula vs 
Leylah Fernandez
Round of 32
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Jessica Pegula to advance · locked 2026-09-02 18:05 UTCPrediction
Pegula, comfortably, in a match between the last two American-hard-court runners-up this tournament produced. Fernandez reached the 2021 final at 19 and has never gone past the third round here since; Pegula reached the 2024 final and is the highest seed left in this quarter. The gap in the present tense is wider than the shared history suggests. Pegula is No. 3 in the world, 46-13 for the season and 256-118 on hard courts for her career, and she has spent 2 hours 20 minutes total on two matches — 6-3 6-2 over Elena-Gabriela Ruse, then 56 minutes to beat Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-1 while holding all eight of her service games and conceding no break points at all. Fernandez is 16-22 this year, ranked 33rd, and won her second round despite twenty-nine unforced errors, taking six of eight break points against a player who served eight double faults. Pegula leads their head-to-head 3-1 and won the most recent meeting 6-2 6-2 in Miami in March. The route to an upset is Fernandez's left-handed serve into the Pegula backhand and a crowd that has always liked her here; the obstacle is that Pegula does not miss.
The case for Jessica Pegula
84% to winPegula has lost one of their four meetings and won the last one 6-2 6-2. She has not dropped a set this week, has not faced a break point since Monday, and is 46-13 for the season against Fernandez's 16-22. Her hard-court record — 256-118 for a career, against Fernandez's 143-93 — is the record of a player who wins the matches she is supposed to win, and she has reached at least the quarter-finals here in each of the last five years. Fernandez's game needs the opponent to give her pace and errors; Pegula gives neither.
The case for Leylah Fernandez
16% to winFernandez is the only player in this half who has already been to a US Open final, and she got there at 19 by beating Sabalenka, Svitolina, Osaka and Kerber in the same fortnight — this is the one court where her form all year has never mattered. She won at Washington in July 2025 the last time these two met on a hard court outdoors, from a set down, 6-3 1-6 7-5. Her left-handed serve out wide in the deuce court is the shot Pegula's two-handed backhand return likes least, and she has taken 75% of her break points this week. If it goes long and loud, the crowd is not the favourite's.
Both cases written 2026-09-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Jessica PegulaLeylah FernandezPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
The briefing
Storylines
- Both are US Open runners-up: Fernandez in 2021 at 19, Pegula in 2024.
- Pegula leads 3-1 and won the last meeting 6-2 6-2 in the Miami round of 32 in March.
- Pegula has spent 2 hours 20 minutes on court in two rounds and has not faced a break point since her opener; she beat Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-1 in 56 minutes.
- Fernandez is 16-22 for the season and ranked 33rd; she is seeded 31st, the lowest seed left in this quarter.
- Pegula is 32 and Fernandez 23; Pegula is 256-118 on hard courts for her career, Fernandez 143-93.
Head to head
Pegula leads 3-1: 6-2 6-2 in the Miami round of 32 in March, 7-5 6-4 in the same round at Miami in 2024, and 7-5 6-7(1) 7-6(3) in the Cincinnati quarter-finals in August 2024. Fernandez's win was the Washington round of 16 in July 2025, 6-3 1-6 7-5.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Watch: Third-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Wednesday is the break in the weather the schedule has been waiting for: mostly cloudy, near 75°F, and a shower chance of only 19% until the light goes. The night session is where it turns — showers and thunderstorms at 69% on a low near 71°F. Thursday is the unsettled day, warm at 82°F with showers and thunderstorms likely at 60%, easing to 52% overnight. Then Friday breaks clean: near 82°F and mostly sunny on 8%, the first dry day of the fortnight, with Saturday sunny at 78°F. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-02)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen women's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
