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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32
Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez — 1-6 6-4 6-3
 Jessica Pegula✓ | 1 | 6 | 6 |
 Leylah Fernandez | 6 | 4 | 3 |
Final · Friday, September 4, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
Fernandez broke for 2-0, broke to love for 5-1 and had the first set inside thirty minutes, Pegula landing 31% of her first serves and missing eleven times. Then the third seed had three break points in the rest of the match and took all three. The first put her 4-2 up in the second; Fernandez broke back to 5-4, Pegula broke again to take the set, and the third came for 3-1 in the decider, from where she held out. Fernandez had eleven break points of her own and converted three. It stayed that thin all the way — Pegula won 86 points to 84, over 2h11, in a meeting of the 2021 and 2024 runners-up. "I always feel like it's really tough to play her," Pegula said afterwards. "I never feel comfortable when I'm playing her, even when I've won." Her own start she called lazy — not moving her feet up to the ball, unsure where she was going to serve. She plays Sorana Cîrstea, who put out Jasmine Paolini earlier the same day, for a place in the quarter-finals.
Jessica PegulaRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen women's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
Round of 64
Round of 32
What we know now
Court: Arthur Ashe Stadium
Match length: 2:11
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Pegula, comfortably, in a match between the last two American-hard-court runners-up this tournament produced. Fernandez reached the 2021 final at 19 and has never gone past the third round here since; Pegula reached the 2024 final and is the highest seed left in this quarter. The gap in the present tense is wider than the shared history suggests. Pegula is No. 3 in the world, 46-13 for the season and 256-118 on hard courts for her career, and she has spent 2 hours 20 minutes total on two matches — 6-3 6-2 over Elena-Gabriela Ruse, then 56 minutes to beat Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-1 while holding all eight of her service games and conceding no break points at all. Fernandez is 16-22 this year, ranked 33rd, and won her second round despite twenty-nine unforced errors, taking six of eight break points against a player who served eight double faults. Pegula leads their head-to-head 3-1 and won the most recent meeting 6-2 6-2 in Miami in March. The route to an upset is Fernandez's left-handed serve into the Pegula backhand and a crowd that has always liked her here; the obstacle is that Pegula does not miss.
The case for Jessica Pegula
84% to winPegula has lost one of their four meetings and won the last one 6-2 6-2. She has not dropped a set this week, has not faced a break point since Monday, and is 46-13 for the season against Fernandez's 16-22. Her hard-court record — 256-118 for a career, against Fernandez's 143-93 — is the record of a player who wins the matches she is supposed to win, and she has reached at least the quarter-finals here in each of the last five years. Fernandez's game needs the opponent to give her pace and errors; Pegula gives neither.
The case for Leylah Fernandez
16% to winFernandez is the only player in this half who has already been to a US Open final, and she got there at 19 by beating Sabalenka, Svitolina, Osaka and Kerber in the same fortnight — this is the one court where her form all year has never mattered. She won at Washington in July 2025 the last time these two met on a hard court outdoors, from a set down, 6-3 1-6 7-5. Her left-handed serve out wide in the deuce court is the shot Pegula's two-handed backhand return likes least, and she has taken 75% of her break points this week. If it goes long and loud, the crowd is not the favourite's.
Both cases written 2026-09-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Jessica Pegula to advance ✓ RIGHT
“Three wins in four meetings including 6-2 6-2 in March, no set and no break point conceded this week, and a thirty-place ranking gap on the surface she has played best on for five years.”
Locked 2026-09-02 18:05 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Jessica PegulaLeylah FernandezPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-04.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Storylines
- Both are US Open runners-up: Fernandez in 2021 at 19, Pegula in 2024.
- Pegula leads 3-1 and won the last meeting 6-2 6-2 in the Miami round of 32 in March.
- Pegula has spent 2 hours 20 minutes on court in two rounds and has not faced a break point since her opener; she beat Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-1 in 56 minutes.
- Fernandez is 16-22 for the season and ranked 33rd; she is seeded 31st, the lowest seed left in this quarter.
- Pegula is 32 and Fernandez 23; Pegula is 256-118 on hard courts for her career, Fernandez 143-93.
Head to head
Pegula leads 3-1: 6-2 6-2 in the Miami round of 32 in March, 7-5 6-4 in the same round at Miami in 2024, and 7-5 6-7(1) 7-6(3) in the Cincinnati quarter-finals in August 2024. Fernandez's win was the Washington round of 16 in July 2025, 6-3 1-6 7-5.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Court & schedule: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Friday 4 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-03)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.