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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 64
Jasmine Paolini vs Lucrezia Stefanini
Round of 64
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My pick: Jasmine Paolini to advance · locked 2026-08-31 03:00 UTCPrediction
Paolini, in an all-Italian second round that is less even than the shared nationality makes it sound. The 19th seed is No. 21 in the world, a two-time Grand Slam finalist in 2024 and an Olympic doubles champion, and she owns the only meeting between them — 6-4 7-5 at Courmayeur in October 2021, on a hard court. Stefanini is 28, ranked No. 119, and had never played a US Open main draw before this week; she is here on the back of a real win, 6-3 4-6 6-1 over Dayana Yastremska. Paolini's own first round was closer than it should have been — she lost the second set to Veronika Erjavec before winning 6-3 3-6 6-4 — and a 16–14 season is not the record of a player in command of her form. But across a match the difference in level tends to show: 145–117 on hard courts against 46–43, and a career of the biggest stages against a first appearance at this one.
The case for Jasmine Paolini
74% to winPaolini has been to two Grand Slam finals — Roland Garros and Wimbledon in 2024 — and won Olympic doubles gold with Sara Errani the same summer. She is nearly a hundred ranking places above her opponent, holds the only head-to-head, and has the deeper hard-court record at 145–117. Her fourth round here in 2024 is further than Stefanini has been at any US Open, because Stefanini has never been in one until now.
The case for Lucrezia Stefanini
26% to winStefanini has already beaten the more decorated player once this week, coming back to take Dayana Yastremska 6-3 4-6 6-1 in the first US Open main draw of her career, at 28. Paolini needed three sets herself against Veronika Erjavec and is 16–14 on the season, a long way from the run that took her to two major finals two summers ago. Their only meeting is nearly five years old. And in an all-Italian match the familiarity runs both ways.
Both cases written 2026-08-31, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Jasmine PaoliniLucrezia StefaniniPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-30.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-30.
The briefing
Storylines
- An all-Italian second round. Their one previous meeting was at Courmayeur in October 2021, which Paolini won 6-4 7-5.
- Stefanini, 28 and ranked No. 119, is playing her first US Open main draw; she beat Dayana Yastremska 6-3 4-6 6-1 to get here.
- Paolini was runner-up at Roland Garros and at Wimbledon in 2024, and won Olympic doubles gold with Sara Errani that summer.
- Barbora Krejcikova, who beat Paolini in that 2024 Wimbledon final, went out in the first round here to Kamilla Rakhimova.
Head to head
One meeting, on a hard court: Paolini won 6-4 7-5 in the Round of 16 at Courmayeur in October 2021.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-30.
Watch: Second-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-30)
Weather: Rain shapes the opening days. Showers and thunderstorms stay possible through Sunday night under a low near 72°F. Monday is the driest day of the window — partly sunny, high near 77°F, a 20% shower chance before 5 p.m. — before showers return after 8 p.m. Tuesday is warmer and wetter: mostly cloudy near 82°F with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly mid-afternoon and again overnight. Wednesday holds near 79°F on the same 50% odds, and Thursday is warmer still — partly sunny, 83°F, storms possible either side of the day. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs; the field courts wait. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-30)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 halves the draw again: 32 women's matches across Wednesday and Thursday, every one of them between players who have already won here this week. The seeds who came through the opening round now meet opponents with form behind them rather than a ranking.
