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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Lucrezia Stefanini vs Dayana Yastremska — 6-3 4-6 6-1
 Lucrezia Stefanini✓ | 6 | 4 | 6 |
 Dayana Yastremska | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Final · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Thirty-six winners against eight, and it wasn't close. Yastremska produced those 36 alongside 51 unforced errors and nine double faults, against Stefanini's ten and one — a qualifier who simply stood still and let the errors arrive. Stefanini won 74% of her second-serve points to 39%, and the third set went 6-1.
Lucrezia StefaniniRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 128 is the widest the net ever gets: 64 matches a draw, spread across three days, every seed in action and every qualifier playing the biggest match of the year. This half of the bracket filled in late — qualifying ran a day long after rain pushed the last round to Friday, so these names were still blank slots on draw night. First-round losers leave with $140,000. The winner draws Paolini or Erjavec in the Round of 64.
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Yastremska is 112th but has 239 career hard-court matches behind her and a third round here in 2019; Stefanini is a 28-year-old qualifier ranked 119th, 8–10 on the season, playing her first US Open main draw. Seven ranking places separate them and 85-point Elo gap favours Yastremska. The Ukrainian ball-striking is streaky enough that a qualifier in rhythm is a live threat, but the weight of shot decides it. Yastremska in three, Court 7 on Sunday.
The case for Lucrezia Stefanini
40% to winStefanini has three wins on these courts this week and a career hard record (43–42) that is a winning one, where Yastremska's is 127–112. Yastremska is 11–18 this season — the worse form by a distance — and prone to a bad day.
The case for Dayana Yastremska
60% to winTwo hundred and thirty-nine career hard-court matches against 85, a third round at this tournament, and the biggest strike of the two by some way. On a quick court, weight of shot beats rhythm more often than not.
Both cases written 2026-08-29, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Dayana Yastremska to advance ✗ WRONG
“Weight of shot and 239 career hard-court matches against a first-time main-draw qualifier.”
Locked 2026-08-29 01:40 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Lucrezia StefaniniDayana YastremskaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Storylines
- Stefanini, 28, is playing her first US Open main-draw match.
- Yastremska's third round here in 2019 remains her best US Open result.
- Only seven ranking places separate them — No. 112 against No. 119.
Head to head
They have never met.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-28.
Court & schedule: Court 7, Sunday 30 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-28)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.