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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Jasmine Paolinivs
Veronika Erjavec
Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Jasmine Paolini to advance · locked 2026-08-28 05:25 UTCPrediction
Paolini, and it should be brisk. The 19th seed's 2024 — twin major finals at Roland-Garros and Wimbledon, a fourth round here — established a level her quieter 2026 (16–13) has only partly reclaimed, but the gap to Erjavec is generational in the other direction: the Slovenian at No. 106 is 5–13 on the season, has nine tour-level hard-court wins, and is playing her first US Open. Paolini's foot speed and flat, early forehand simply operate at a different frame rate. First meetings between top-20 fixtures and debutants at this stage rarely stay competitive past 4-4 in the first; the seed's occasional error clusters are the only currency Erjavec can trade in. Paolini in two.
The case for Jasmine Paolini
84% to winA two-time major finalist with a 145–116 hard-court career opening against a 5–13 debutant: Paolini's speed neutralizes what little first-strike offense Erjavec brings, and her experience of far bigger occasions makes the nerves entirely one-sided. This is the softest opener any seed in her quarter received.
The case for Veronika Erjavec
16% to winErjavec swings free with literally nothing at stake, and Paolini's season has featured flat patches where the errors arrive in streaks. A debutant's best weapon is the favorite's obligation — every game the Slovenian holds raises the temperature on the seed alone.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Jasmine PaoliniVeronika ErjavecPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-27.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
The briefing
Storylines
- Paolini's 2024 season — finals at both Roland-Garros and Wimbledon — made her a fixture of the top 20; her 2026 has been quieter.
- Erjavec, ranked No. 106, is making her US Open main-draw debut with nine career tour-level hard-court wins.
- First meeting; the winner faces Yastremska or a qualifier in the Round of 64.
Head to head
Never met — a top-20 fixture and a Slam debutant whose circuits hadn't crossed until the draw did it for them.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Watch: Opening-round coverage starts Sunday at 11 a.m. ET across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, including a whip-around channel for the early rounds. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned — the US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, so day-one courts land the night of 29 August. This one profiles as a field-court match. (US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-27)
Weather: The opening window looks kind: mostly sunny and 85–86°F Sunday and Monday, with thunderstorm chances only creeping in on Tuesday. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs if the sky turns; the field courts wait it out. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-27)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
Round of 128 housekeeping for a former double-finalist: Paolini's 2024 heights set expectations her season hasn't consistently met, which makes low-drama openers like this one valuable twice over — points banked, questions deferred. Erjavec's debut is its own reward with $140,000 attached either way. The bracket's neighborhood stays gentle for one more round before the quarter's seeds start colliding. Sunday through Tuesday.
Jasmine PaoliniVeronika ErjavecRound of 128
Jasmine PaoliniVeronika ErjavecRound of 64