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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 128
Jasmine Paolini vs Veronika Erjavec — 6-3 3-6 6-4
 Jasmine Paolini✓ | 6 | 3 | 6 |
 Veronika Erjavec | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Final · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Round of 128
Result
Paolini's first match in more than seven weeks — a foot injury had kept her out since Wimbledon — and for a set and a half it showed. She took the first 6-3, lost the second, then built a 4-1 lead in the decider and held on for 6-4. Thirteen breaks of serve in three sets, with the 19th seed needing seventeen break points to land seven of them. She hit 36 winners to Erjavec's 13 and made 27 unforced errors to her 15: two players committed to opposite theories of tennis, the aggressive one winning 92 points to 75.
Jasmine PaoliniRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Round of 128 housekeeping for a former double-finalist: Paolini's 2024 heights set expectations her season hasn't consistently met, which makes low-drama openers like this one valuable twice over — points banked, questions deferred. Erjavec's debut is its own reward with $140,000 attached either way. The bracket's neighborhood stays gentle for one more round before the quarter's seeds start colliding. Sunday through Tuesday.
What we know now
Court: Louis Armstrong Stadium
Match length: 1:46
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Paolini, and it should be brisk. The 19th seed's 2024 — twin major finals at Roland-Garros and Wimbledon, a fourth round here — established a level her quieter 2026 (16–13) has only partly reclaimed, but the gap to Erjavec is generational in the other direction: the Slovenian at No. 106 is 5–13 on the season, has nine tour-level hard-court wins, and is playing her first US Open. Paolini's foot speed and flat, early forehand simply operate at a different frame rate. First meetings between top-20 fixtures and debutants at this stage rarely stay competitive past 4-4 in the first; the seed's occasional error clusters are the only currency Erjavec can trade in. Paolini in two.
The case for Jasmine Paolini
84% to winA two-time major finalist with a 145–116 hard-court career opening against a 5–13 debutant: Paolini's speed neutralizes what little first-strike offense Erjavec brings, and her experience of far bigger occasions makes the nerves entirely one-sided. This is the softest opener any seed in her quarter received.
The case for Veronika Erjavec
16% to winErjavec swings free with literally nothing at stake, and Paolini's season has featured flat patches where the errors arrive in streaks. A debutant's best weapon is the favorite's obligation — every game the Slovenian holds raises the temperature on the seed alone.
Both cases written 2026-08-28, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Jasmine Paolini to advance ✓ RIGHT
“Two major finals of pedigree against nine career hard-court wins — the widest class gap among the women's seed openers.”
Locked 2026-08-28 05:25 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Jasmine PaoliniVeronika ErjavecPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-28.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Storylines
- Paolini's 2024 season — finals at both Roland-Garros and Wimbledon — made her a fixture of the top 20; her 2026 has been quieter.
- Erjavec, ranked No. 106, is making her US Open main-draw debut with nine career tour-level hard-court wins.
- First meeting; the winner faces Yastremska or a qualifier in the Round of 64.
Head to head
Never met — a top-20 fixture and a Slam debutant whose circuits hadn't crossed until the draw did it for them.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-27.
Court & schedule: Louis Armstrong Stadium, Sunday 30 August. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-08-28)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — was forecast at 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that could not be pushed back. The rain came in the morning and stopped before the final, which Ashe played with its roof open. It cleared from there: 15% overnight, 15% Monday, then dry and sunny. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.