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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 64
Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Iatcenko — 6-1 6-1
| Aryna Sabalenka✓ | 6 | 6 |
| Polina Iatcenko | 1 | 1 |
Final · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · Round of 64
Result
Fifty-four minutes on Arthur Ashe, and the top seed conceded two games. Sabalenka closed the first set in under 25 minutes, racing to 5-0 having given up seven points; Iatcenko held once for 1-5 before Sabalenka won the next four points. The second repeated it — a break to open, a love hold, 3-0, and after Iatcenko took a game at 3-1, seven straight points. The box is one-sided in every column that matters: 24 winners to three, 75% of first-serve points won to 33%, six of eight break points, 56 points to 26. It was Sabalenka's fifteenth consecutive win at this tournament, where she is the two-time defending champion, and her twenty-ninth hard-court win of the season against three defeats. Sports.ru noted she is now 13-0 against qualifiers and lucky losers at Grand Slams. Kamilla Rakhimova, who has dropped seven games in two rounds of her own, is next. No post-match quotes had been published an hour after the match.
Rows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 halves the draw again: 32 women's matches across Wednesday and Thursday, every one of them between players who have already won here this week. The seeds who came through the opening round now meet opponents with form behind them rather than a ranking.
Round of 128
Round of 64
What we know now
Court: Arthur Ashe Stadium
Match length: 0:54
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Sabalenka, and this is as close to a formality as the second round of a Grand Slam offers. The world No. 1 has won this title twice, is 40–9 on the season and 297–107 on hard courts for her career, and opened with a 6-2 6-4 over Camila Osorio in 1 hour 27 minutes on Ashe — 32 winners to 18, five breaks from eight chances. Iatcenko is a 22-year-old qualifier ranked 160th, playing her first US Open, and she got here the hard way: 4-6 6-4 7-6(10-7) over Renata Zarazua in 3 hours 27 minutes on Court 6, a match in which she hit 42 winners and 85 unforced errors and won by six points. There is a real player in those numbers, and a first-time main-draw entrant who came through a match tiebreak is not short of nerve. But the ratings have this near 97–3, they have never played, and Sabalenka's problem this fortnight will not arrive in the second round.
The case for Aryna Sabalenka
97% to winSabalenka is the top seed, a two-time champion at this tournament and a four-time major winner, 40–9 this season, and she has just spent 87 minutes in her opening match against a top-60 opponent. Her career hard-court record is 297–107 — Iatcenko's is 5–5. On a court she has won two titles on, against a player ranked 159 places below her whom she has never met and has no reason to fear, the only question is the scoreline.
The case for Polina Iatcenko
3% to winIatcenko has nothing to lose and the recent evidence that she does not fold: three hours 27 minutes and a deciding match tiebreak to come through her first Grand Slam main-draw match, 42 winners in it. Sabalenka's major season has been unusually brittle — an Australian Open final lost, early exits at Roland Garros and Wimbledon — and she was broken twice by Osorio in the first round. A qualifier swinging freely on the biggest court in tennis is exactly the shape of match that has troubled her this year.
Both cases written 2026-08-31, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Aryna Sabalenka to advance ✓ RIGHT
“The world No. 1 and two-time champion against a qualifier ranked 160th, on the court she has won two titles on.”
Locked 2026-08-31 17:45 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Storylines
- Sabalenka is the top seed and a two-time US Open champion; Iatcenko is a 22-year-old qualifier ranked 160th on her first US Open main-draw appearance.
- Iatcenko needed 3 hours 27 minutes and a deciding-set tiebreak, 10-7, to get past Renata Zarazua — 42 winners, 85 unforced errors, and a six-point margin over the match.
- Sabalenka's opener took 1 hour 27 minutes: 6-2 6-4 over Camila Osorio, 32 winners to 18.
- Career hard-court records: Sabalenka 297–107, Iatcenko 5–5.
- First meeting.
Head to head
They have never met at tour level.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Court & schedule: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Wednesday 2 September in the night session. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-01)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.