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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 64
Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Iatcenko
Round of 64
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Aryna Sabalenka to advance · locked 2026-08-31 17:45 UTCPrediction
Sabalenka, and this is as close to a formality as the second round of a Grand Slam offers. The world No. 1 has won this title twice, is 40–9 on the season and 297–107 on hard courts for her career, and opened with a 6-2 6-4 over Camila Osorio in 1 hour 27 minutes on Ashe — 32 winners to 18, five breaks from eight chances. Iatcenko is a 22-year-old qualifier ranked 160th, playing her first US Open, and she got here the hard way: 4-6 6-4 7-6(10-7) over Renata Zarazua in 3 hours 27 minutes on Court 6, a match in which she hit 42 winners and 85 unforced errors and won by six points. There is a real player in those numbers, and a first-time main-draw entrant who came through a match tiebreak is not short of nerve. But the ratings have this near 97–3, they have never played, and Sabalenka's problem this fortnight will not arrive in the second round.
The case for Aryna Sabalenka
97% to winSabalenka is the top seed, a two-time champion at this tournament and a four-time major winner, 40–9 this season, and she has just spent 87 minutes in her opening match against a top-60 opponent. Her career hard-court record is 297–107 — Iatcenko's is 5–5. On a court she has won two titles on, against a player ranked 159 places below her whom she has never met and has no reason to fear, the only question is the scoreline.
The case for Polina Iatcenko
3% to winIatcenko has nothing to lose and the recent evidence that she does not fold: three hours 27 minutes and a deciding match tiebreak to come through her first Grand Slam main-draw match, 42 winners in it. Sabalenka's major season has been unusually brittle — an Australian Open final lost, early exits at Roland Garros and Wimbledon — and she was broken twice by Osorio in the first round. A qualifier swinging freely on the biggest court in tennis is exactly the shape of match that has troubled her this year.
Both cases written 2026-08-31, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-31.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
The briefing
Storylines
- Sabalenka is the top seed and a two-time US Open champion; Iatcenko is a 22-year-old qualifier ranked 160th on her first US Open main-draw appearance.
- Iatcenko needed 3 hours 27 minutes and a deciding-set tiebreak, 10-7, to get past Renata Zarazua — 42 winners, 85 unforced errors, and a six-point margin over the match.
- Sabalenka's opener took 1 hour 27 minutes: 6-2 6-4 over Camila Osorio, 32 winners to 18.
- Career hard-court records: Sabalenka 297–107, Iatcenko 5–5.
- First meeting.
Head to head
They have never met at tour level.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Watch: Second-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-31)
Weather: Rain is the story of the week's opening, and it is forecast to get worse before it clears. Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight — 72% under a low near 72°F — and Tuesday is the worst day on the board: near 81°F with storms likely through the day, 67%, and again after dark at 64%. Wednesday is the break in it, near 76°F on a 26% chance of showers, with a slight chance of storms returning overnight; Thursday is warm and unsettled again, near 84°F on 53%. Friday is the first clean day of the fortnight — near 82°F and mostly sunny after an early 15%. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-31)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 halves the draw again: 32 women's matches across Wednesday and Thursday, every one of them between players who have already won here this week. The seeds who came through the opening round now meet opponents with form behind them rather than a ranking.
Round of 128
Round of 32