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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32
Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala — 7-5 3-6 7-5
 Iva Jovic✓ | 7 | 3 | 7 |
 Alexandra Eala | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Final · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
Seventeen breaks of serve in thirty-three games, three hours and three minutes, and a full Ashe crowd that mostly wanted the other player: the messiest good match of the tournament so far. Jovic broke twice for 4-1 in the first, was pulled back to 4-4, and won it 7-5 anyway. Eala lengthened the rallies to take the second — her first set in three meetings with Jovic this year — and led 4-2 in the third, with break points to go 5-2 that Jovic survived after two deuces. From there Jovic won four of the last five games: a return winner for 4-4, a running forehand volley for 5-4, an ace at 40-15 for 6-5, and an Eala forehand into the net on her second match point. She fell flat on her back. "It took losing my earrings, falling literally flat-out on the floor, cuts on my knees, mental breakdowns," she said. "It took literally everything." The two are friends and former doubles partners; Eala was already waiting at the net when Jovic got up, and left the court in tears. "What I know for a fact is that I fought, so I'm happy with that," she said.
Iva JovicRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen women's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
Round of 64
What we know now
Court: Arthur Ashe Stadium
Match length: 3:03
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
The tie the tournament wanted, and two close friends will have to play it. Eala is the better player on paper — 18th in the world to Jovic's 14th is the wrong way round, but hard-court Elo puts her 80 points clear, her career hard-court record is 46-37 against 33-21, and she is three years further into her career. The paper has been wrong twice this season. Jovic beat her 6-4 6-2 in the first round at Roland Garros in May and 6-2 6-2 at Queen's Club in June, and beat her again in the Stars of the Open exhibition during Fan Week. That is three straight-sets wins on three surfaces inside four months, and it is the only direct evidence there is. Both are into the US Open third round for the first time and both were second-round losers here last year, so neither has an edge in familiarity. Jovic came through Francesca Jones in an hour and 54 minutes having converted only four of fourteen break points, which is a warning; Eala beat Oleksandra Oliynykova 6-1 6-4 and has looked the cleaner of the two so far this week. Close to a coin toss, with the head-to-head the only thumb on the scale.
The case for Iva Jovic
51% to winJovic has beaten Eala twice this season and dropped ten games doing it, on clay in Paris and on grass at Queen's, and then beat her again in an exhibition on these grounds during Fan Week. She is the higher seed, she reached the Australian Open quarter-finals and the Wimbledon fourth round this year, and at 18 she is the youngest player left in this quarter. Whatever the ranking says, she has solved this opponent three times.
The case for Alexandra Eala
49% to winEala is 80 points clear on hard-court Elo and has the better career record on the surface, 46-37 against 33-21. She is left-handed, which Jovic has now faced three times and which remains the harder look at this level, and she has spent less time on court getting here — 6-1 6-4 against Oliynykova, against Jovic's hour and 54 minutes and four-from-fourteen on break points. Two of their three meetings were on clay and grass; this is the first on the surface that suits her best.
Both cases written 2026-09-04, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Iva Jovic to advance ✓ RIGHT
“Elo prefers Eala, but Jovic has beaten her three times this season on three different surfaces without dropping a set.”
Locked 2026-09-04 05:50 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Iva JovicAlexandra EalaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-04.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-04.
Storylines
- Close friends, and the third round both of them are reaching for the first time.
- Jovic has won all three meetings this season — Roland Garros, Queen's Club, and a Fan Week exhibition.
- Eala is 80 points clear on hard-court Elo and 46-37 on the surface for her career, to Jovic's 33-21.
- Jovic converted four of fourteen break points against Francesca Jones and still won in straight sets.
- Both lost in the second round here in 2025; a right-hander against a left-hander.
Head to head
Two tour-level meetings, both this season and both to Jovic: 6-4 6-2 in the Roland Garros first round in May, and 6-2 6-2 in the Queen's Club round of 16 in June.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-04.
Court & schedule: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Saturday 5 September in the night session. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-04)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.