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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32
Karolina Muchova vs 
Emma Navarro
Round of 32
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My pick: Karolina Muchova to advance · locked 2026-09-02 23:55 UTCPrediction
Both women reached the semi-finals of this tournament in 2024 and neither has played the other, anywhere, ever. Muchova is having the best season of her career — 36-10, ranked seventh, a Wimbledon finalist in July and, ten days ago inside this tournament, the mixed doubles champion with Jakub Mensik. She has spent 58 minutes on court in her second round: 6-1 6-0 over Katie Boulter under the Armstrong roof, eleven consecutive games from 1-1, seven break points converted from seven. Navarro has had to work much harder. She is 21-18 for the season and needed 2 hours 46 minutes to get past Caty McNally in an all-American second round, losing the first set and 39 unforced errors along the way. She is a semi-finalist here and a genuinely awkward opponent — she absorbs pace as well as anyone in the draw — but Muchova's variety is the exact answer to that, and the Elo tables put her 160 points clear. The one number that argues for Navarro is 2 hours 46 minutes: she has been tested this week and Muchova has not.
The case for Karolina Muchova
74% to winMuchova is 36-10 in the best season of her life, a Wimbledon finalist and already a champion at this tournament in the mixed doubles. She lost one game in her second round and won eleven in a row to end it. Her hard-court record is 145-66 to Navarro's 68-55, she is 20 places higher, and she has the widest range of shots left in this half of the draw — which against a counterpuncher is the whole match.
The case for Emma Navarro
26% to winNavarro reached the semi-finals here in 2024 and knows how to win ugly on these courts; she has just come from a set down against an opponent who beat her in June. She takes the ball early and gives nothing away in a rally, which blunts a drop-shot game more than a power game does. Muchova has played 58 minutes in her last match and has not been made to run once this week — untested is not the same as sharp.
Both cases written 2026-09-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Karolina MuchovaEmma NavarroPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
The briefing
Storylines
- Both women reached the US Open semi-finals in 2024; they have never played each other.
- Muchova beat Katie Boulter 6-1 6-0 in 58 minutes, winning eleven consecutive games and all seven break points she made.
- Muchova won this tournament's mixed doubles title with Jakub Mensik and was the Wimbledon runner-up in July.
- Navarro needed 2 hours 46 minutes and three sets to beat Caty McNally, having lost to her at 's-Hertogenbosch in June.
- Muchova is 36-10 for the season, Navarro 21-18.
Head to head
They have never met.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Watch: Third-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Wednesday night is wet: showers and thunderstorms likely at 64% on a low near 72°F, which is the night session's problem and the roofs' answer. Thursday stays unsettled — 83°F, showers and thunderstorms likely, again at 64% — and eases to 33% overnight. Friday improves without quite clearing: mostly sunny and 82°F, with a slight shower chance at 23%. Saturday is the clean day, sunny and 78°F on 2%, and Sunday is sunny at 74°F. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-02)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen women's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
