US Open 2026 pages
Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Final
Aryna Sabalenka vs 
Elena Rybakina
Final
Watch: ESPN · ESPN Deportes · ESPN app
My pick: Aryna Sabalenka to advance · locked 2026-09-11 12:30 UTCPrediction
Tennis Abstract's hard-court Elo had Sabalenka 2164.7 to Rybakina 2112.2 on 31 August, a 52-point gap worth about 57-43 over three sets, and neither of them has lost since. The head-to-head does not move it: 10-7 overall reads like a Sabalenka edge and is 7-7 on hard courts, which is where this is played. What moves it is the fortnight. Rybakina has held 57 of 64 service games to Sabalenka's 51 of 61, faced seventeen break points to twenty-one, and hit 42 aces to 39 — she is the better server here and has been all season. Sabalenka has been better at everything else: 25 of 54 break points converted to Rybakina's 21 of 52, and 170 winners against 124 unforced errors where Rybakina is 143 against 138. They have won exactly 446 points each. So the ratings say Sabalenka and the venue says it louder — she has lost once at Flushing Meadows in three years and it was a final, and her streak here is nineteen. I take her below the ratings anyway, because the two matches in the last eleven months that most resemble this one, a hard-court final with a title on it, both went to Rybakina: Riyadh in November and Melbourne in January.
The case for Aryna Sabalenka
55% to winSabalenka is the two-time defending champion and has won nineteen consecutive matches at this tournament. She has lost here once in three years — the 2023 final — and this is her sixth straight US Open semi-final, her fourth straight final, and her ninth Grand Slam final, from which she holds four titles. She has dropped one set in six rounds and spent 8h47 on court, an hour less than Rybakina. The separator is the return: 25 of 54 break points converted this fortnight against Rybakina's 21 of 52, and 170 winners against 124 unforced errors where Rybakina is 143 against 138. She leads the head-to-head 10-7, has won their last two meetings back to back in March — the Indian Wells final and the Miami semi-final — and is 62-44 against top-ten opposition for her career. A third straight title would make her the third woman in the Open era to do it, after Chris Evert and Serena Williams, and the first since Williams in 2012-14.
The case for Elena Rybakina
45% to winRybakina is the incoming world No. 1, clinched outright by reaching the semi-finals and hers on Monday whatever happens on Saturday. This is her first US Open final and her fourth at a major, after Wimbledon in 2022, the 2023 Australian Open — lost to Sabalenka — and this year's Australian Open, which she won by beating Sabalenka from 0-3 down in the deciding set. She leads the tour in aces, 357 this season against Sabalenka's 236, and she has been the better server of the two here: 57 of 64 service games held to 51 of 61, seventeen break points faced to twenty-one, broken seven times to ten. She has beaten Sabalenka in the 2025 WTA Finals final and the Australian Open final inside the last eleven months, which are the two matches on their list that look most like Saturday. And she has done all of it out of form's way: she retired from her Cincinnati quarter-final on 20 August with a left-leg injury, said days later that for a couple of days it had been painful to walk, and has since played six matches, given away 138 unforced errors, and won every one.
Both cases written 2026-09-11, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-04.
Career head-to-head: WTA head-to-head records; Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-11.
The briefing
Storylines
- Sabalenka is one win from a third consecutive US Open title. Only Chris Evert and Serena Williams have done that in the Open era, and Williams was the last, in 2012, 2013 and 2014.
- The world No. 1 ranking is already decided and it is not Saturday's prize. Rybakina clinched it outright by reaching the semi-finals; it becomes hers when the rankings publish on Monday 14 September, ending Sabalenka's 99 consecutive weeks at the top and making her the first player from Kazakhstan to hold it.
- This is a rematch of the 2026 Australian Open final, which Rybakina won 6-4 4-6 6-4 from 0-3 down in the deciding set. They are the first pair of women to contest both hard-court major finals in the same season since Steffi Graf and Arantxa Sanchez Vicario in 1994.
- Sabalenka had played an American in each of her last three US Open semi-finals and finals — Keys and Gauff in 2023, Navarro and Pegula in 2024, Pegula and Anisimova in 2025. Pegula kept the run going on Thursday night. Saturday ends it.
- Rybakina arrived here ten days after retiring from her Cincinnati quarter-final with a left-leg injury, down 1-4 to Swiatek on 20 August. "For a couple of days, it was painful to even walk," she said before the tournament. She has not dropped more than a set in a match since the second round.
- Rybakina leads the tour in aces — 357 in 2026 through Thursday, against Sabalenka's 236 — and Sabalenka named the serve first when she was asked about the matchup: "She's a big server. She really improved over the years on the baseline game, so it's going to be physically and mentally tough match."
- Six matches each, and they have won exactly the same number of points getting here: 446.
Head to head
Seventeen meetings, Sabalenka leading 10-7 — but 7-7 on hard courts, which is where this one is played. Her three extra wins are the only clay meeting (Madrid 2024) and both on grass (Wimbledon 2021, Berlin 2025). Three have been at majors: Sabalenka took the 2021 Wimbledon fourth round and the 2023 Australian Open final, Rybakina the 2026 Australian Open final, 6-4 4-6 6-4 from 0-3 down in the third. Over the last two years it is 4-4, and it splits by stakes rather than by date — Sabalenka has won the last two, the Indian Wells final and the Miami semi-final in March, while Rybakina has won the biggest two, the 2025 WTA Finals in Riyadh and Melbourne.
Source: WTA head-to-head records; Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-11.
Watch: The women's final is on ESPN, with ESPN Deportes carrying the Spanish-language call — Juan Martín del Potro has been in that booth since the quarter-finals — and every court streaming in the ESPN app on an ESPN Unlimited plan. ABC's three Sundays this fortnight were opening day, the round of 16 and the men's final, so Saturday is cable and app only. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-09-08)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-11)
Weather: Friday — the men's semi-finals and the women's doubles final — opens on a chance of showers and turns mostly sunny at 79°F, 13%, ahead of a mostly clear night at 66°F. Saturday's women's final is mostly sunny and 75°F with no rain in the forecast, and then it turns: showers and thunderstorms are 88% likely after dark on Saturday and stay 88% likely through Sunday's men's final at 79°F. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-11)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The final. Two players left from a draw of 128, thirteen days after the first ball. Both have won six matches on these courts; one of them wins a seventh and the other goes home on Saturday afternoon.
