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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Semi-finals
Aryna Sabalenka vs 
Jessica Pegula
Semi-finals
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ESPN Deportes · ESPN app
My pick: Aryna Sabalenka to advance · locked 2026-09-09 14:10 UTCPrediction
Sabalenka leads 9-4 and Tennis Abstract's hard-court Elo has her 2164.7 to Pegula's 2063.9, a hundred-point gap worth roughly 64-36 over three sets. Two things push it up and one pushes it down. Up: Sabalenka has won both of their meetings at this tournament, and they are the two that mattered most — the 2024 final 7-5 7-5 and last year's semi-final from a set down — and she arrives on an eighteen-match US Open winning streak having dropped one set all fortnight and spent 7h27 on court, the least of anyone left in the draw. Down: Pegula has won two of their last three, taking the deciding set 6-0 in the Berlin semi-final in June, and their last four meetings have all gone three sets, which is not the shape of a mismatch. Pegula has more three-set wins this season than anyone on tour. I take Sabalenka a little above the ratings, because the venue is the part of this that has not varied: she has lost here once in three years, and it was a final.
The case for Aryna Sabalenka
67% to winSabalenka is the two-time defending champion and has reached her sixth consecutive US Open semi-final — the last WTA player to do that was Serena Williams, from 2011 to 2016. Her winning streak here stands at eighteen matches. She has dropped one set in five rounds, spent less time on court than anyone left, and needed all of it only once, against the reigning Wimbledon champion Linda Nosková, whom she beat 7-6(1) 3-6 7-6(7) from 2-4 down in the third. She leads Pegula 9-4 overall and 6-3 on hard courts, and she has won both of the meetings that were played on this court. A third straight title would make her the first woman to win three consecutive US Opens since Serena Williams in 2012-14; in the Open era only Williams and Chris Evert have done it.
The case for Jessica Pegula
33% to winPegula is in her third consecutive US Open semi-final and her fourth Grand Slam semi-final, and she now holds the highest career Grand Slam win rate of any active player who has never won a major — 70.3%, passing Elina Svitolina this week. The Navarro win was her fiftieth tour-level victory of 2026; she has nineteen three-set wins this season, more than anyone on tour, and more three-set wins and comeback wins than any WTA player this decade. She has beaten Sabalenka twice in their last three: Wuhan from a set down, and Berlin in June, where she took the decider 6-0 and made Sabalenka the first world No. 1 since the rankings began in 1975 to concede a 6-0 deciding set at consecutive events. She knows what the plan is: "Changing the direction of the ball, not getting too predictable and making her have to move and come up with good shots on the run." At 32 she is the oldest woman in the Open era to reach multiple major semi-finals in a year for the first time.
Both cases written 2026-09-09, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-05.
Career head-to-head: WTA head-to-head records; Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-09.
The briefing
Storylines
- The world No. 1 ranking may be settled before either of them walks on court. Elena Rybakina takes it outright by reaching the semi-finals, and her quarter-final against Qinwen Zheng is on Wednesday. If Rybakina wins it, Thursday carries no ranking consequence at all; if she loses it, whoever wins this title takes No. 1 — which keeps both of these two alive, Pegula for the first time in her career.
- Sabalenka has been world No. 1 for 99 consecutive weeks. Holding it through this tournament would make it a round hundred.
- Sabalenka has played an American in each of her last three US Open semi-finals and finals — Keys and Gauff in 2023, Navarro and Pegula in 2024, Pegula and Amanda Anisimova in 2025. Her own verdict: "That's my karma."
- Asked to choose between the ranking and a third straight title here, Sabalenka did not hesitate: "Yes, three-peat. Sounds great."
- They are the fourth pair of women in the Open era to meet in the semi-finals or later at three consecutive US Opens.
- All four of the top four seeds reached the quarter-finals — and the quarter-final field also held the reigning Wimbledon champion, the reigning French Open champion and the Olympic gold medallist.
- David Witt coached Pegula before he coached Frances Tiafoe, who plays the men's semi-final on Friday.
Head to head
Thirteen meetings, Sabalenka leading 9-4 — 6-3 on hard courts, 3-0 on clay, and Pegula's only grass meeting to Pegula. The two here are Sabalenka's: the 2024 final, 7-5 7-5, and last year's semi-final, 4-6 6-3 6-4. Pegula's four are Cincinnati 2020, the 2023 WTA Finals, the Wuhan semi-final in October 2025 and the Berlin semi-final in June 2026, where she won the deciding set 6-0. Their last four meetings have all gone three sets.
Source: WTA head-to-head records; Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-09.
Watch: The semi-finals are on ESPN, with ESPN Deportes carrying the Spanish-language call — Juan Martín del Potro has been in that booth since the quarter-finals — and every court streaming in the ESPN app on an ESPN Unlimited plan. ABC's three Sundays this fortnight were opening day, the round of 16 and the men's final, so this one is cable and app only. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-09-08)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-09)
Weather: Today's quarter-finals are mostly sunny and 82°F with a 1% chance of rain, and tonight is partly cloudy at 75°F with a 20% shower chance late. Thursday, for the women's semi-finals, is 83°F and the week's first genuinely wet day — a 25% chance of showers through the afternoon and 37% overnight. Friday's men's semi-finals are the pick of the week: sunny, 78°F, mostly clear at night. Saturday's women's final is mostly sunny and 76°F with thunderstorms creeping in after dark, and Sunday's men's final carries that 45% chance of showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon at 79°F. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-09)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The semi-finals are the last four, played on Thursday for the women and Friday for the men. Everyone still here has won five matches on these courts. Two of the four go out inside two days; the other two play the final.
