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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Quarter-finals
Aryna Sabalenka vs 
Linda Noskova
Quarter-finals
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My pick: Aryna Sabalenka to advance · locked 2026-09-06 23:55 UTCPrediction
This is the reigning Wimbledon champion against the two-time defending champion here, and the ratings do not think it is close. Tennis Abstract's hard-court Elo had Sabalenka at 2164.7 and Noskova at 1930.0 on 31 August — a gap of 235 points, which is about 79-21 — and Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 2-0, both on hard courts, most recently 6-3 6-4 in the Indian Wells semi-final in March. Sabalenka has not dropped a set here and has spent 5h05 on court; Noskova has spent 7h40, has beaten two seeds to Sabalenka's none, and needed six match points and a single-point margin — 105 to 104 — to get past Marta Kostyuk. The case for shading it toward Noskova is real and it is mostly about the last three months rather than the last three days: she won Wimbledon in July on her sixth championship point, she has won eleven consecutive Grand Slam matches, she reached a career-high No. 6 in August, and Sabalenka has not won a major all year and is trying to avoid her first majorless season since 2022. The case against is a number. Over the last fifty-two weeks Noskova has double-faulted on 17.3% of her second serves — better than one in six — against Sabalenka's 9.8%, and Sabalenka is the best returner in the draw. Every service game becomes a negotiation, and this is the opponent least likely to let one go. I take Sabalenka, shaded down from the ratings because the ratings have not watched either of them play this week.
The case for Aryna Sabalenka
72% to winSabalenka has not lost at Flushing Meadows since the 2023 final and is 23-1 in her last twenty-four matches here. This is her sixth consecutive US Open quarter-final — the first woman to do that since Serena Williams in 2016 — her seventeenth Grand Slam quarter-final, and she is 5-0 in US Open quarter-finals. She has dropped no sets in four matches and spent under an hour on court in one of them. She is No. 1 on all four of Tennis Abstract's Elo measures, overall and on every surface. She has beaten Noskova twice without losing a set that mattered, and after the second of those said the serve was the key and that if she gave Noskova small openings she would take them — a read she repeated almost word for word on Sunday.
The case for Linda Noskova
28% to winNoskova is the Wimbledon champion, has won eleven Grand Slam matches in a row, and has taken out two seeds in this draw. She beat Kostyuk in the Wimbledon semi-final in July and beat her again on Sunday, and she beat Jessica Pegula in the Berlin final in June. Her serve is the biggest weapon on this side of the draw and she is second on tour in aces for the season behind Elena Rybakina. She has been in a match like this before and won it: her first meeting with Sabalenka was an Adelaide final in January 2023, when she was an eighteen-year-old qualifier ranked 102nd who had beaten the world No. 2 to get there, and she took Sabalenka to a second-set tiebreak. She is a peer now rather than a qualifier, and the two-hours-thirty-five she has spent on court more than Sabalenka has all been against people who could play.
Both cases written 2026-09-06, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-05.
Career head-to-head: WTA and tournament match records; BNP Paribas Open recap · as of 2026-09-06.
The briefing
Storylines
- Sabalenka is three wins from a third consecutive US Open title. The last woman to win three in a row here was Serena Williams in 2012, 2013 and 2014; the all-time record is four, shared by Chris Evert (1975-78), Helen Jacobs (1932-35) and Molla Mallory (1915-18). Only Evert and Serena have managed three straight in the Open era.
- The world No. 1 ranking is live and Sabalenka's grip on it is narrow: she has to win the title AND have Elena Rybakina lose before the semi-finals to keep it, because the 2,000 points from last year's title come off. Rybakina takes No. 1 by reaching the semi-finals, whatever anyone else does. Sabalenka has held it for 99 consecutive weeks.
- Noskova has won eleven consecutive Grand Slam matches, going back to the start of Wimbledon, where she beat Karolína Muchová 6-2 5-7 6-3 in the final on her sixth championship point. On Sunday she needed six match points again, having lost the second set again — the same shape, twelve weeks apart.
- This is Noskova's third Grand Slam quarter-final and her first at the US Open. It would have been a first for Kostyuk too, which is part of why Sunday's match ran to 2h27 and a one-point margin.
- Sabalenka has not won a major in 2026 — runner-up in Melbourne, quarter-finals in Paris, a fourth-round exit at Wimbledon to Naomi Osaka. She has not won a title of any kind since Miami in March, and is trying to avoid her first season without a major since 2022.
- Their two previous meetings bracket Noskova's whole career: the 2023 Adelaide final, when she was an eighteen-year-old qualifier ranked 102nd, and the 2026 Indian Wells semi-final in March, when she was ranked 14th. She is No. 6 now.
Head to head
Two meetings, both to Sabalenka on outdoor hard courts and both in straight sets. She won the 2023 Adelaide final 6-3 7-6(4) against an eighteen-year-old qualifier, and the 2026 Indian Wells semi-final 6-3 6-4 in 1h28. Tuesday is their first meeting at a Grand Slam.
Source: WTA and tournament match records; BNP Paribas Open recap · as of 2026-09-06.
Watch: Quarter-final coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app. By this round the tennis has narrowed to the two show courts, so a broadcast window is very likely. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-07)
Weather: Labor Day, when the last four fourth rounds are played, is sunny and 80°F with nothing in it at all, and tonight is mostly clear at 64°F. The quarter-final days are as good: sunny and 80°F Tuesday, mostly sunny and 82°F Wednesday, with only a 6% shower chance late Wednesday night. Thursday is where the week turns — the first semi-final day now carries a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, up from 29% overnight, and it holds at 40% into Thursday night. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-07)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The quarter-finals are the last eight, played across Tuesday and Wednesday. Everyone still here has won four matches on these courts, which is enough that seedings have stopped explaining anything and the form of the fortnight explains most of it. Four of the eight are gone within two days; the other four play for a place in the final.
