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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 16
Linda Noskova vs Marta Kostyuk — 7-5 5-7 6-4
 Linda Noskova✓ | 7 | 5 | 6 |
 Marta Kostyuk | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Final · Sunday, September 6, 2026 · Round of 16
Result
Noskova won by a single point, 105 to 104, and led on the count of total points only for the last two of them. She served for the match twice. At 5-4 in the second Kostyuk saved one match point with a forehand winner and a second by driving a ball straight at her at the net, then won four games in a row to take the set — having been in tears walking to serve at 3-5 a few minutes earlier. Serving for it again at 5-4 in the third, Noskova put two more match points out, saved a break point, netted a fifth, and converted the sixth with a serve Kostyuk could not return, then dropped to her knees. She hit no aces, having come into the day second on tour for the season behind Elena Rybakina, and lost the winner count 36-27. It is the shape of the Wimbledon final she won in July, where Muchova saved five championship points before she took the sixth. That title means this is her third Grand Slam quarter-final, but her first at the US Open — and it would have been a first for Kostyuk too. "A huge rock fell off my heart at the end," she said.
Linda NoskovaRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 16 is the fourth round, and the point at which a Grand Slam stops being a draw and becomes a tournament you can hold in your head: eight matches, played across Sunday and Monday, and the eight who come through are the quarter-finalists. Everyone still here has won three matches on these courts, so the seedings have stopped being a guide and the form of the fortnight has taken over.
Round of 32
Round of 16
What we know now
Court: Louis Armstrong Stadium
Match length: 2:27
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
This is the closest of the four fourth-round matchups resolved on Friday, and the two available measures disagree about it. Hard-court Elo has Kostyuk ahead by 53 points — a shade under 58% — and the career hard-court records point the same way, 132-83 against 95-52. The rankings and the year point the other way: Nosková is sixth to Kostyuk's eleventh, is the reigning Wimbledon champion, and has now won ten Grand Slam matches in a row. They have met twice in 2026 and split it, Kostyuk winning a clay quarter-final 7-6(1) 6-0 in April and Nosková winning the Wimbledon semi-final 6-4 6-4 in July — which is the meeting that matters, because it was the bigger occasion and the more recent. Neither arrives clean. Nosková led 3-0 in the second set on Friday, failed to serve the match out at 5-4, held a match point in the tiebreak and lost it, and needed a third set against a player ranked 28th. Kostyuk went through the 20th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in straight sets and has the tidier week behind her, along with 35 wins to 9 for the season. The tiebreak is Nosková's serve: she has hit more aces in Grand Slam matches this season than anyone, and Kostyuk has to break her twice to win a set. I make it barely a lean, and I am overriding the Elo to take it, which is worth saying out loud rather than hiding in a rounding. Nosková, in three.
The case for Linda Noskova
55% to winNosková won the meeting that counted — the Wimbledon semi-final in July, 6-4 6-4, on the way to the title. She is the reigning Wimbledon champion at 21, is ranked sixth to Kostyuk's eleventh, and is on a ten-match Grand Slam winning streak that is the longest of anyone this season. She has hit more aces in Grand Slam matches in 2026 than any other woman, which is the single most useful thing to own in a match this tight, and this is already the deepest she has been at the US Open. She survived a set she should have won on Friday, which is a different thing from playing badly.
The case for Marta Kostyuk
45% to winKostyuk has the better hard-court Elo by 53 points and the better career record on the surface, 132-83 to 95-52. She is 35-9 for the season, reached this round without the wobble Nosková had on Friday, and beat the 20th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-3 6-2 to get here. She won their most recent completed meeting on a fast day in April, 7-6(1) 6-0, and the second set of that match is the reminder that when this goes wrong for Nosková it goes wrong quickly. Kostyuk also matched this result here last year, so the stage is not new to her.
Both cases written 2026-09-05, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Linda Noskova to advance ✓ RIGHT
“A deliberate override of the hard-court Elo, which favours Kostyuk by 53 points (≈58%): Nosková is four ranking places higher, won the bigger and more recent of their two 2026 meetings, and is on a ten-match Grand Slam streak with the Wimbledon title in it.”
Locked 2026-09-05 01:40 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Linda NoskovaMarta KostyukPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-05.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-04.
Storylines
- They split two meetings in 2026: Kostyuk won a clay quarter-final 7-6(1) 6-0 in April, Nosková the Wimbledon semi-final 6-4 6-4 in July.
- Nosková is the reigning Wimbledon champion and has won ten Grand Slam matches in a row.
- Kostyuk's hard-court Elo is 53 points higher, and her career hard-court record is 132-83 to Nosková's 95-52 — the numbers and the rankings disagree about this match.
- Nosková led 3-0 in the second set on Friday, failed to serve it out at 5-4 and lost a tiebreak in which she held a match point.
- This is Nosková's first US Open fourth round; Kostyuk reached the same stage here last year.
Head to head
Two meetings, one each in 2026: Kostyuk won a clay-court quarter-final 7-6(1) 6-0 in April, and Nosková won the Wimbledon semi-final 6-4 6-4 in July on the way to the title.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-04.
Court & schedule: Louis Armstrong Stadium, Sunday 6 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-05)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.