Wimbledon 2026 pages
Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Rafael Jódar vs Shintaro Mochizuki — 1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4
 Shintaro Mochizuki✓ | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
 Rafael Jódar | 6 | 65 | 4 | 4 |
Final · Friday, July 3, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
Mochizuki turned the match around after a one-sided opening set, beating Jódar 1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4 in three hours. Jódar hit more aces and more winners, but Mochizuki cleaned up the error column, won 134 points to 129, and converted seven break points.
Rafael JódarRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Mochizuki is the surprise name in Sinner’s fourth-round slot. Jódar looked ready to keep his seeded run moving after a 6-1 first set, but the qualifier pinched the second-set tiebreak and then played the cleaner tennis from there, taking the match 1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4. That sends Mochizuki into a last-16 meeting with the defending champion, which is the sport’s polite way of turning a good week into a stress test. Jódar exits after beating Gill and Carreño Busta; Mochizuki adds Basing, Quinn, and now a No. 23 seed to his path.
Rafael JódarShintaro Mochizuki✓Round of 64
Round of 32
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Jódar, narrowly. The 23rd seed is the better player on paper, but the paper is smudged: he spent two days and five sets getting past Carreño Busta, finishing barely eighteen hours before this one starts, while Mochizuki has dropped one tiebreak all tournament and won his opener 6-3 6-0 6-0. The Japanese qualifier's low, skidding game suits the surface — he won the junior title on these lawns in 2019 — and freshness is a real asset in a third round this quick. If Jódar's legs are there, his extra weight of shot decides it; if not, this is the day's most gettable seed.
The case for Rafael Jódar
57% to winThe 21-year-old Spaniard is seeded 23rd for a reason: bigger serve, bigger forehand, and the composure to win a two-day, five-set fight against a veteran countryman. He out-hit Carreño Busta 66 winners to 42. If the fatigue is manageable, he is simply the stronger player.
The case for Shintaro Mochizuki
43% to winMochizuki won junior Wimbledon in 2019 and his flat, early-taken game still fits grass better than any other surface. He has spent far less time on court than Jódar — a 6-3 6-0 6-0 opener, then straight sets over Quinn — and a fresh qualifier against a seed coming off a two-day five-setter is a classic third-round upset shape.
Both cases written 2026-07-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Rafael Jódar to advance ✗ WRONG
“The stronger player if the legs survived a two-day five-setter — a real if, hence the thin margin.”
Locked 2026-07-02 16:05 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Rafael JódarShintaro MochizukiPlayer vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-09.
Storylines
- Jódar finished a darkness-suspended five-setter on Thursday and turns around inside a day — recovery is the match's first question.
- Mochizuki, the 2019 Wimbledon boys' champion, is back on the lawns where his junior breakthrough came, now as a qualifier two wins from the second week.
- A first career meeting, with a fourth-round debut at a major waiting for the winner.
Head to head
A first career meeting.
Source: TennisTemple head-to-head · as of 2026-07-02.
Court & schedule: Court 18 (TennisTemple match stats and ESPN scoreboard, as of 2026-07-03)
Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.