Wimbledon 2026 pages
Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Rafael Jódar vs Shintaro Mochizuki — 1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4
 Shintaro Mochizuki✓ | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
 Rafael Jódar | 6 | 65 | 4 | 4 |
Final · Friday, July 3, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
Mochizuki turned the match around after a one-sided opening set, beating Jódar 1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4 in three hours. Jódar hit more aces and more winners, but Mochizuki cleaned up the error column, won 134 points to 129, and converted seven break points.
Rafael JódarStats: Official wimbledon.com match statistics (IBM) · as of 2026-07-09
Rows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Mochizuki is the surprise name in Sinner’s fourth-round slot. Jódar looked ready to keep his seeded run moving after a 6-1 first set, but the qualifier pinched the second-set tiebreak and then played the cleaner tennis from there, taking the match 1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4. That sends Mochizuki into a last-16 meeting with the defending champion, which is the sport’s polite way of turning a good week into a stress test. Jódar exits after beating Gill and Carreño Busta; Mochizuki adds Basing, Quinn, and now a No. 23 seed to his path.
Rafael JódarShintaro Mochizuki✓Round of 64
Round of 32
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Jódar, narrowly. The 23rd seed is the better player on paper, but the paper is smudged: he spent two days and five sets getting past Carreño Busta, finishing barely eighteen hours before this one starts, while Mochizuki has dropped one tiebreak all tournament and won his opener 6-3 6-0 6-0. The Japanese qualifier's low, skidding game suits the surface — he won the junior title on these lawns in 2019 — and freshness is a real asset in a third round this quick. If Jódar's legs are there, his extra weight of shot decides it; if not, this is the day's most gettable seed.
The case for Rafael Jódar
57% to winThe 21-year-old Spaniard is seeded 23rd for a reason: bigger serve, bigger forehand, and the composure to win a two-day, five-set fight against a veteran countryman. He out-hit Carreño Busta 66 winners to 42. If the fatigue is manageable, he is simply the stronger player.
The case for Shintaro Mochizuki
43% to winMochizuki won junior Wimbledon in 2019 and his flat, early-taken game still fits grass better than any other surface. He has spent far less time on court than Jódar — a 6-3 6-0 6-0 opener, then straight sets over Quinn — and a fresh qualifier against a seed coming off a two-day five-setter is a classic third-round upset shape.
Both cases written 2026-07-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Rafael Jódar to advance ✗ WRONG
“The stronger player if the legs survived a two-day five-setter — a real if, hence the thin margin.”
Locked 2026-07-02 16:05 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Rafael JódarShintaro MochizukiPlayer vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-09.
Storylines
- Jódar finished a darkness-suspended five-setter on Thursday and turns around inside a day — recovery is the match's first question.
- Mochizuki, the 2019 Wimbledon boys' champion, is back on the lawns where his junior breakthrough came, now as a qualifier two wins from the second week.
- A first career meeting, with a fourth-round debut at a major waiting for the winner.
Head to head
A first career meeting.
Source: TennisTemple head-to-head · as of 2026-07-02.
Court & schedule: Court 18 (TennisTemple match stats and ESPN scoreboard, as of 2026-07-03)
Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.