Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32

Rafael JódarvsShintaro Mochizuki

Friday, July 3, 2026 · Round of 32

Watch: ESPN · ESPN+

My pick: Rafael Jódar to advance · locked 2026-07-02 16:05 UTC

Prediction

Jódar, narrowly. The 23rd seed is the better player on paper, but the paper is smudged: he spent two days and five sets getting past Carreño Busta, finishing barely eighteen hours before this one starts, while Mochizuki has dropped one tiebreak all tournament and won his opener 6-3 6-0 6-0. The Japanese qualifier's low, skidding game suits the surface — he won the junior title on these lawns in 2019 — and freshness is a real asset in a third round this quick. If Jódar's legs are there, his extra weight of shot decides it; if not, this is the day's most gettable seed.

The case for Rafael Jódar

57% to win

The 21-year-old Spaniard is seeded 23rd for a reason: bigger serve, bigger forehand, and the composure to win a two-day, five-set fight against a veteran countryman. He out-hit Carreño Busta 66 winners to 42. If the fatigue is manageable, he is simply the stronger player.

The case for Shintaro Mochizuki

43% to win

Mochizuki won junior Wimbledon in 2019 and his flat, early-taken game still fits grass better than any other surface. He has spent far less time on court than Jódar — a 6-3 6-0 6-0 opener, then straight sets over Quinn — and a fresh qualifier against a seed coming off a two-day five-setter is a classic third-round upset shape.

Both cases written 2026-07-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.

Tale of the tape

Rafael JódarShintaro Mochizuki

19Age23

6′3″ (1.91 m)Height5′9″ (1.75 m)

—Weight—

Right-handed, two-handed backhandPlaysRight-handed, two-handed backhand

2025Turned pro2019

No. 23ATP rankingNo. 151

29–112026 win–loss14–6

—Career on grass—

0Grand Slam titles0

First round (2026)Best at WimbledonThird round (2026)

Rafael Jódar (father)Coach—

Player vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-01.

The briefing

Storylines

Jódar finished a darkness-suspended five-setter on Thursday and turns around inside a day — recovery is the match's first question.
Mochizuki, the 2019 Wimbledon boys' champion, is back on the lawns where his junior breakthrough came, now as a qualifier two wins from the second week.
A first career meeting, with a fourth-round debut at a major waiting for the winner.

This fortnight’s form

Rafael Jódar

R1def. Felix Gill (WC)6-3 6-3 7-5
R2def. Pablo Carreño Busta3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4

Shintaro Mochizuki

R1def. Max Basing (Q)6-3 6-0 6-0
R2def. Ethan Quinn6-2 7-6(6) 7-5

Each player’s path into this round. Source: Mungomash Wimbledon 2026 draw (this cluster's verified results), cross-checked against the published draw · as of 2026-07-02.

Head to head

A first career meeting.

Source: TennisTemple head-to-head · as of 2026-07-02.

Watch: US coverage runs on ESPN and ESPN2, and every court — this match included — streams on ESPN+. The exact channel follows the order of play. (ESPN, as of 2026-07-02)

Court & schedule: Court 18; exact rotation per the published order of play. (All England Club order of play for Friday 3 July, via TennisTemple, as of 2026-07-02)

Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.