Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32

Jasmine PaolinivsMaria Sakkari

Saturday, July 4, 2026 · Round of 32

Watch: ESPN · ESPN+

My pick: Jasmine Paolini to advance · locked 2026-07-03 13:30 UTC

Prediction

Paolini. The 13th seed reached the Wimbledon final in 2024 and looks the part again, taking a flawless 7-0 first-set tiebreak and 39 winners past Viktorija Golubic. Maria Sakkari, once the world No. 3, has rebuilt her ranking to No. 43 and can still trouble anyone when her forehand and movement are humming — she survived a wild three-setter with Rakhimova, saving the match in a decider she trailed. Their rivalry is tight and Sakkari has shaded it in the past, but Paolini won the most recent meeting in straight sets and is the fresher, more in-form player on a surface where her compact, early-ball game thrives. The Italian should have too much consistency and too much confidence.

The case for Jasmine Paolini

68% to win

Paolini is a Wimbledon finalist playing like one: quick, compact, brilliant off the return, and able to redirect pace with the best. She took the opening tiebreak against Golubic without conceding a point, has the higher ranking and the fresher legs, and won the pair's most recent meeting in straight sets. On grass her early-strike game and footspeed are a tough combination to out-steady.

The case for Maria Sakkari

32% to win

Sakkari's case is her peak: a former world No. 3 with the athleticism and forehand to bully opponents off the court when she is on. The rivalry with Paolini is genuinely close, she has beaten her before, and she showed her fight by saving a decider against Rakhimova. If the serve holds up and the forehand finds its range early, the ranking gap means little — this is a far better player than No. 43 suggests.

Both cases written 2026-07-03, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.

Tale of the tape

Jasmine PaoliniMaria Sakkari

30Age30

5′4″ (1.63 m)Height5′8″ (1.72 m)

—Weight—

Right-handed, two-handed backhandPlaysRight-handed, two-handed backhand

2015Turned pro2015

No. 17ATP rankingNo. 43

—2026 win–loss—

—Career on grass—

0Grand Slam titles0

Final (2024)Best at WimbledonThird round (2017, 2019, 2022, 2024)

—CoachTom Hill

Player vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-01.

The briefing

Storylines

Paolini, the 2024 Wimbledon finalist, opened her third-round bid with a 7-0 tiebreak and 39 winners.
Sakkari, a former world No. 3, has climbed back to No. 43 and survived a decider to reach this stage.
Their head-to-head is close, but Paolini won the most recent meeting in straight sets.

This fortnight’s form

Jasmine Paolini

R1def. Robin Montgomery (Q)0-6 6-4 7-5
R2def. Viktorija Golubic7-6(0) 6-4

Maria Sakkari

R1def. Clara Tauson (24)6-3 6-3
R2def. Kamilla Rakhimova6-3 0-6 7-6(7)

Each player’s path into this round. Source: Mungomash Wimbledon 2026 draw (this cluster's verified results), cross-checked against the published draw · as of 2026-07-03.

Head to head

A tight rivalry with little between them; Paolini won the most recent meeting 7-6(2) 7-6(5) at Cincinnati in 2025.

Source: WTA head-to-head · as of 2026-07-03.

Watch: US coverage runs on ESPN and ESPN2, and every court — this match included — streams on ESPN+. The exact channel and start time follow the order of play. (ESPN, as of 2026-07-03)

Court & schedule: Third-round order of play is posted the evening before; the court and start time for this match had not yet been published. (All England Club order of play (not yet released for the third round), as of 2026-07-03)

Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.