Wimbledon 2026 pages
Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Women's Singles · Quarter-finals
Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini — 6-3 6-2
 Marta Kostyuk✓ | 6 | 6 |
 Jasmine Paolini | 3 | 2 |
Final · Wednesday, July 8, 2026 · Quarter-finals
Result
Marta Kostyuk answered the grass-pedigree question emphatically. The 12th seed overpowered the 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-2 in 69 minutes on Centre Court, winning 90% of her first-serve points and breaking four times as Paolini's flat, early game misfired into 26 unforced errors against just eight winners. Kostyuk, a Roland Garros semi-finalist only last month, reaches the first Wimbledon semi-final of her career.
Marta KostyukStats: Official wimbledon.com match statistics (IBM) · as of 2026-07-09
Rows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The all-momentum quarter-final tilted decisively to the newcomer. Marta Kostyuk, the 12th seed and a Roland Garros semi-finalist last month, beat the 13th seed and 2024 Wimbledon runner-up Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-2 on Centre Court to reach her first Wimbledon semi-final — a major last four now on a second surface this season. Grass pedigree was supposed to favour Paolini, but it was Kostyuk's weight of shot and 90%-first-serve dominance that told inside 70 minutes. She moves into the last four against the ninth seed Linda Nosková, who came through the other bottom-half quarter-final; the top half sends Karolína Muchová against Coco Gauff.
Round of 16
What we know now
Court: The order of play is out: this quarter-final opens Centre Court on Wednesday 8 July
Match length: 1:09
Watch: ESPN · ESPN+
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Paolini, narrowly. Both are in outstanding form, but on grass I trust the player who has already reached a Wimbledon final. Paolini's movement, return, and low, flat ball are the surface's ideal toolkit, and she has the temperament of someone who has played the second week of majors repeatedly. Kostyuk's run — a Roland Garros semi last month, now a first Wimbledon quarter-final — is the real thing, and her power can overwhelm anyone when the serve fires; over three sets, though, I lean to Paolini's cleaner grass game and bigger-stage experience.
The case for Marta Kostyuk
45% to winKostyuk is playing the best tennis of her career — a Roland Garros semi-final last month, and now a grass quarter-final that makes her one of the few players of her generation to reach the last eight of a major on all three surfaces. She has power off both wings and has already handled a seed in Emma Navarro and a big-hitting American in Ashlyn Krueger, for the loss of four games, this fortnight. If she serves well, her weight of shot can take the racquet out of Paolini's hands.
The case for Jasmine Paolini
55% to winPaolini has been here before — she reached the 2024 Wimbledon final — and nobody left in this quarter matches that grass pedigree. She is moving and serving like it, too: 84% of first-serve points in a 65-minute rout of Sakkari, then the composure to recover a lost middle set against Eala. Her retrieving and flat, early ball-striking are tailor-made for grass, and the big stage plainly doesn't shrink her.
Both cases written 2026-07-06, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Jasmine Paolini to advance ✗ WRONG
“Paolini's grass pedigree — a Wimbledon finalist in 2024 — edges Kostyuk's red-hot but first-time run here.”
Locked 2026-07-06 15:30 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Marta KostyukJasmine PaoliniPlayer vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-09.
Career head-to-head: WTA head-to-head / quarter-final previews · as of 2026-07-07.
Storylines
- The 12th seed Kostyuk against the 13th seed Paolini, the 2024 Wimbledon runner-up, for a place in the semi-finals.
- Kostyuk, a Roland Garros semi-finalist last month, has reached her first Wimbledon quarter-final — and a major quarter-final on all three surfaces.
- Paolini routed Sakkari and beat the breakout Eala to return to the Wimbledon last eight; the winner meets Naomi Osaka or Karolína Muchová.
Head to head
Paolini leads 2–1 — the most recent a 6-2 6-1 Paolini win in Cincinnati in 2023. They have never met on grass.
Source: WTA head-to-head / quarter-final previews · as of 2026-07-07.
Injuries & withdrawals
| Both players | No injury or withdrawal concerns reported on either side. | WTA / ESPN quarter-final coverage · 2026-07-07 |
Injury news drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Court & schedule: The order of play is out: this quarter-final opens Centre Court on Wednesday 8 July, first match from 1:30 p.m. BST. (All England Club order of play (Wednesday 8 July), via BBC Sport, as of 2026-07-07)
Weather: Another hot, dry day at SW19 — sunshine and low-30s°C heat (around 90°F) with negligible rain risk, as the week's heatwave builds toward a Thursday peak near 35°C. (Met Office All England Club forecast, as of 2026-07-07)
Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.