Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group D
USAvs
Paraguay
Friday, June 12, 2026 · 9:00 p.m. ET · Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium), Inglewood, CA
Watch: FOX · Telemundo · free on Tubi
My pick: USA win · locked 2026-06-11 21:01 UTCPrediction
USA win, by less than the building expects. Paraguay arrive unbeaten in eight with wins over Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay inside that run, and Gustavo Alfaro's mid-block exists to make vertical teams look ordinary for an hour. But the US carry the two best one-on-one weapons on the field — Pulisic between the lines and Antonee Robinson at full gallop — SoFi's canopy keeps the conditions sterile, and teams built for a deep home run usually survive night one. USA 2–1, and not comfortable until late.
The case for USA
53.1% to winA home World Cup opener at SoFi with the most talented forward group the program has had: Pulisic between the lines, Balogun in behind, Tillman arriving late. Paraguay will sit in a mid-block, and the US carry the two players best equipped to break one — Pulisic's receiving angles and Antonee Robinson's overlaps at full speed. The 1930 head-to-head (Bert Patenaude's hat-trick, the World Cup's first ever) is trivia; the pressure is not. This is the kind of opener a team built for a deep home run is supposed to win, and mostly does.
The case for Paraguay
20.7% to winParaguay arrive unbeaten in eight with wins over Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay inside that run — Gustavo Alfaro's mid-block simply doesn't give up the chances a vertical team wants. Cubas and Bobadilla screen the back four, captain Gustavo Gómez organizes it, Sanabria led their qualifying scoring, and the set-piece threat travels anywhere. Pochettino has cycled three formations across his last three matches; a settled, disciplined side punishing an unsettled one is the oldest upset shape in the sport.
Both cases written 2026-06-11, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 26.2% belongs to the draw.
USA 4-4-24-2-3-1 ParaguayThe briefing
Storylines
- The US men open a home World Cup for the first time since 1994 — against the one CONMEBOL side nobody wanted from pot three: Paraguay are unbeaten in eight, beating Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay along the way.
- Pochettino has used three different formations in his last three matches (3-4-3, 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3); the teamsheet tonight reveals which team he actually picked.
- The only previous World Cup meeting was 1930, when Bert Patenaude scored the World Cup's first-ever hat-trick in a 3-0 US win.
- Julio Enciso's quadriceps is the visitors' biggest question — Paraguay's creative ceiling drops a tier without him between the lines.
The coaches
Mauricio Pochettino USA
In charge since 2024 with a mandate measured in knockout rounds; aggressive full-backs, a high line, and — three warm-ups in three shapes — a formation still officially undecided.
Gustavo Alfaro Paraguay
Veteran of exactly this job — organizing unfancied CONMEBOL sides into knockout teams; compact mid-block, quick transitions, dead-ball rehearsals.
Availability
| Chris Richards | In contention — returning from an injury layoff; sharpness for the opener is the question | Goal.com projected-XI analysis · 2026-06-10 |
| Julio Enciso | Doubt — quadriceps injury picked up against Nicaragua; in a race to be fit | Sports Mole predicted-lineup report · 2026-06-11 |
| Damián Bobadilla | Available — back in full training after managing a knee issue | RotoWire preview · 2026-06-10 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FOX in English and Telemundo in Spanish — and streaming free on Tubi, FOX's ad-supported service; Peacock carries the Spanish feed. (Yahoo Sports / NBC how-to-watch guides, as of 2026-06-12)
Weather: Roof, effectively: SoFi's fixed translucent canopy keeps the weather out of play — the marine-layer evening outside is for the concourses, not the pitch. (Venue configuration (SoFi canopy), as of 2026-06-11)
Referee: Danny Makkelie (Netherlands). Assistants Hessel Steegstra and Jan de Vries (Netherlands); fourth official Yusuke Araki (Japan). (FIFA appointments via Yahoo Sports, as of 2026-06-11)
Venue: Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium), Inglewood, CA, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.