Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group D
Australiavs
Türkiye
Sunday, June 14, 2026 · 12:00 a.m. ET · BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver
Watch: FS1 · Telemundo
My pick: Türkiye win · locked 2026-06-11 21:01 UTCPrediction
Türkiye, but tighter than the talent gap suggests — and complicated by Kenan Yıldız's calf. Montella's side arrive on an eight-game unbeaten run with Arda Güler fully fit to pull the strings, and they carry the clearer match-winners. Australia, organized in a back five under Popovic and built on Souttar's aerial threat and Leckie's running, are exactly the kind of side that drags favourites into a scrap. Türkiye by a goal, 2–1, with Australia level into the second half.
The case for Australia
28% to winAustralia do not lose group openers cheaply. Popovic has them organized in a back five, Mat Ryan is a steadying tournament hand, and Harry Souttar turns every set piece into a chance, with Mathew Leckie's experience and running on the flank. Türkiye can be loose, and with Kenan Yıldız a calf doubt their attack leans heavily on Güler; if the Socceroos make it physical and steal a set piece, a frustrating night for the favourites is well within range.
The case for Türkiye
43% to winTürkiye carry the better collection of talent in Group D and the form to match — seven wins in eight, an eight-game unbeaten run, and Arda Güler fully recovered to orchestrate. Even without the doubtful Yıldız, Montella has Hakan Çalhanoğlu dictating from deep and Deniz Gül to lead the line. Against a back five they can stretch, their quality between the lines should tell over ninety minutes, and a winning start sets up the group as expected.
Both cases written 2026-06-13, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 29% belongs to the draw.
Australia 5-4-14-2-3-1 TürkiyeThe briefing
Storylines
- Türkiye are at a World Cup for the first time since 2002, when they finished third; they arrive on an eight-game unbeaten run as one of the tournament's dark horses.
- Australia — round-of-16 finishers in 2022 and ever-present across the last five World Cups — lean on Popovic's organized back five, Harry Souttar's aerial threat and Mathew Leckie's experience.
- Kenan Yıldız is a major doubt with a calf injury, leaving Türkiye's creativity resting on a fully fit Arda Güler, with Deniz Gül expected to lead the line.
- Played under BC Place's retractable roof, the late-night ET kickoff removes weather as a variable and rewards whichever side keeps its legs late.
The coaches
Tony Popovic Australia
Took over the Socceroos in 2024 and steadied qualifying; favours a compact back five, hard running and set-piece threat.
Vincenzo Montella Türkiye
The Italian has Türkiye on an eight-game unbeaten run, playing front-foot football built around a young, creative core.
Availability
| Kenan Yıldız | Major doubt — calf injury; a surprise if he features in the opener | Sports Mole preview (Matt Law) · 2026-06-12 |
| Arda Güler | Available — fully recovered from the injury that ended his club season | Sports Mole preview (Matt Law) · 2026-06-12 |
| Squad | No injury doubts; Mohamed Toure expected to lead the line | Sports Mole preview (Matt Law) · 2026-06-12 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FS1 in English (stream on Fox One with a TV provider) and Telemundo in Spanish (stream on Peacock). (NBC News / Yahoo Sports World Cup TV schedule, as of 2026-06-13)
Weather: Roof — played under BC Place's retractable roof, expected closed for the late kickoff, so a still, climate-neutral environment regardless of conditions outside. (Venue configuration (BC Place retractable roof), as of 2026-06-13)
Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, Canada — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.