Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group F
Netherlandsvs
Japan
Sunday, June 14, 2026 · 4:00 p.m. ET · Dallas Stadium (AT&T Stadium), Arlington, TX
Watch: FOX · Telemundo
My pick: Netherlands win · locked 2026-06-13 12:20 UTCPrediction
Netherlands, but this is the toughest of the locked picks — and Japan may be the form team in the group. Samurai Blue arrive on six straight wins, having beaten Brazil and England, even without the retired Endo and injured Mitoma. The Netherlands are missing De Ligt, Xavi Simons and Jerdy Schouten and may be without keeper Verbruggen, yet Van Dijk anchors and Gakpo and Depay carry the threat. Oranje by a goal, 2–1, in a game that could just as easily finish level.
The case for Netherlands
40% to winThe Netherlands are unbeaten in 16 World Cup group matches since 1994 and still carry tournament-grade quality — Virgil van Dijk marshalling the back, Frenkie de Jong dictating, and Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay (or the in-form Donyell Malen) to finish. Koeman has navigated a patched-up build-up, with De Ligt, Xavi Simons and Jerdy Schouten all out and Verbruggen a doubt, but the spine and the set-piece threat remain the group's most reliable, and openers against well-drilled sides are what their experience is for.
The case for Japan
29% to winJapan are arguably the form team in Group F: six straight wins, more goals than anyone in AFC qualifying, and recent scalps of Brazil and England. Even without the retired Wataru Endo and the injured Kaoru Mitoma, Moriyasu can call on Takefusa Kubo and Junya Ito behind Ayase Ueda, and his 3-4-2-1 presses in coordinated waves. Against a Dutch side shorn of De Ligt and Simons, Japan have the legs and belief to take at least a point — and maybe all three.
Both cases written 2026-06-13, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 31% belongs to the draw.
Netherlands 4-2-3-13-4-2-1 JapanThe briefing
Storylines
- Japan arrive as the form side — six straight wins, with recent victories over Brazil and England — chasing a first-ever run beyond the round of 16 in their eighth straight World Cup.
- The Netherlands are unbeaten in 16 World Cup group games since 1994, but injuries bite: De Ligt, Xavi Simons and Jerdy Schouten (ACL) are out, Jurrien Timber withdrew, and keeper Bart Verbruggen is a doubt after a warm-up hip knock.
- Japan are without captain Wataru Endo, who retired from international football after a foot injury, and winger Kaoru Mitoma; Take Kubo and Junya Ito support Ayase Ueda in Moriyasu's 3-4-2-1.
- Played under the closed roof at Dallas's AT&T Stadium, with Koeman weighing Memphis Depay against the in-form Donyell Malen to lead the line.
The coaches
Ronald Koeman Netherlands
In his second spell with the Netherlands, the country he captained at USA '94; a 4-2-3-1 built on ball progression and set-piece power.
Hajime Moriyasu Japan
Long-serving Japan boss, arriving on six straight wins; high-pressing, quick-transition football, here in a 3-4-2-1.
Availability
| Bart Verbruggen | Doubt — hip injury in the final warm-up; Mark Flekken on standby to deputize in goal | Sports Mole preview (Jonathan O'Shea) · 2026-06-12 |
| De Ligt, Xavi Simons, Schouten, Timber | Out — Matthijs de Ligt, Xavi Simons and Jerdy Schouten (ACL) all sidelined, with Jurrien Timber having withdrawn from the squad | Sports Mole preview (Jonathan O'Shea) · 2026-06-12 |
| Wataru Endo & Kaoru Mitoma | Out — captain Endo retired from internationals after a foot injury; winger Mitoma also misses out injured | Sports Mole preview (Jonathan O'Shea) · 2026-06-12 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FOX in English (stream on Fox One, or watch over the air with an antenna) and Telemundo in Spanish (stream on Peacock). (NBC News / Yahoo Sports World Cup TV schedule, as of 2026-06-13)
Weather: Roof — played under AT&T Stadium's retractable roof, expected closed, giving a still, climate-controlled indoor environment. (Venue configuration (AT&T Stadium retractable roof), as of 2026-06-13)
Venue: Dallas Stadium (AT&T Stadium), Arlington, TX, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.