Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group D
Türkiyevs
Paraguay
0–1
Full time · Friday, June 19, 2026 · 11:00 p.m. ET · San Francisco Bay Area Stadium (Levi's Stadium), Santa Clara, CA
Result
Paraguay produced a backs-to-the-wall upset, beating Türkiye 1-0 in Santa Clara despite playing the entire second half a man down. Matías Galarza struck inside two minutes with a low drive from distance, and Paraguay then survived Miguel Almirón's red card on the stroke of half-time. Türkiye laid siege to the Paraguayan goal — 32 shots and 78% possession — but found only five on target, with goalkeeper Orlando Gil making five saves to preserve a result that throws Group D wide open and leaves Montella's side on the brink. Türkiye sit bottom of Group D on 0 points; Paraguay sit 3rd in Group D on 3 points — the table as it stood after matchday 2.
Türkiye 4-2-3-14-4-2 ParaguayTürkiyeSubstitutions
Attendance 68,827
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen at kickoff. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the predictions worth anything.
Türkiye to win. Both sides lost their openers and treat this as a knockout, but Vincenzo Montella's hosts carry the greater attacking talent — Arda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and the returning Kenan Yıldız — and the comfort of a home crowd in Santa Clara. Paraguay are physical, well-drilled and dangerous on the counter through Julio Enciso and Miguel Almirón, so this need not be smooth, but Türkiye's quality in the final third should tell. 2-1 Türkiye.
My locked pick: Türkiye win ✗ WRONG
“A must-win for both after opening defeats (Türkiye 0-2 Australia, Paraguay 1-4 USA); Türkiye's deeper attacking talent and a knockout-or-bust urgency give them the edge in San Francisco. Türkiye to win.”
Locked 2026-06-19 11:05 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
The case for Türkiye
45% to winTürkiye were flat in a 0-2 defeat to Australia, but the talent is undeniable: Çalhanoğlu pulling the strings, Arda Güler a tournament breakout candidate, and Kenan Yıldız pushing for a first start after building fitness. At home in California and facing elimination pressure, Montella's side have every incentive to play with the freedom that was missing on opening night.
The case for Paraguay
27% to winParaguay were outclassed 4-1 by the USA but remain a stubborn, physical outfit under Gustavo Alfaro, organised at the back around Gustavo Gómez and carrying a genuine spark in Julio Enciso. A must-win for both, but Paraguay have shown they can frustrate better sides; if they keep it tight and break quickly, a first point — or more — is within reach.
Both cases written 2026-06-19, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 28% belongs to the draw.
Storylines
- A must-win for both after opening defeats: Türkiye fell 0-2 to Australia, Paraguay 1-4 to the USA, leaving the loser on the brink of elimination from Group D.
- Kenan Yıldız, eased back from a knock, is pushing for his first World Cup start and could replace Barış Alper Yılmaz to sharpen Türkiye's attack.
- Paraguay lean on the physicality of Gustavo Gómez and the creativity of Julio Enciso and Miguel Almirón to spring a counter-punching upset.
- Played in the open air at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara, with both coaches under pressure to deliver a response.
The coaches
Vincenzo Montella Türkiye
Italian coach who has revived Türkiye since 2023, favouring possession and the young creative core of Güler, Yıldız and Kökçü.
Gustavo Alfaro Paraguay
Vastly experienced Argentine who took Ecuador to the 2022 World Cup; pragmatic, organised and built on defensive solidity and set pieces.
Availability
| Kenan Yıldız | In contention to start after managing a knock — logged 45 minutes vs Australia and is building fitness | SI / Sports Mole preview · 2026-06-19 |
| Squad | No major fresh injury concerns reported after the USA defeat; Alfaro expected to choose from a full outfield group | Sports Mole preview · 2026-06-19 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Weather: Open-air at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium for a late-evening kickoff — typically cool and dry Bay Area conditions, around 60°F with a light breeze. (NWS San Francisco Bay Area seasonal climatology (specific forecast not yet cleanly available), as of 2026-06-19)
Referee: Iván Barton (El Salvador). (ESPN match officials (GAME INFORMATION), as of 2026-06-20)
Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium (Levi's Stadium), Santa Clara, CA, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
