TürkiyevsParaguay

Result

Paraguay produced a backs-to-the-wall upset, beating Türkiye 1-0 in Santa Clara despite playing the entire second half a man down. Matías Galarza struck inside two minutes with a low drive from distance, and Paraguay then survived Miguel Almirón's red card on the stroke of half-time. Türkiye laid siege to the Paraguayan goal — 32 shots and 78% possession — but found only five on target, with goalkeeper Orlando Gil making five saves to preserve a result that throws Group D wide open and leaves Montella's side on the brink.

Türkiye 4-2-3-14-4-2 Paraguay

Türkiye

Paraguay

Matías Galarza2'

Emre Elmalı71'

Matías Galarza4'

Miguel Almirón45'+3'

79%Possession21%

32Shots7

5On target2

1Saves5

12Corners0

559Passes completed96

89%Pass accuracy54%

17Tackles25

50Touches in box12

Substitutions

Barış Alper Yılmazfor Aktürkoğluat 45'

Damián Bobadillafor Pittaat 45'

Can Uzunfor Yüksekat 60'

Gustavo Velázquezfor D. Gómezat 67'

Deniz Gülfor Akgünat 60'

Alan Maidanafor Cáceresat 81'

Emre Elmalıfor Kadıoğluat 70'

Gabriel Ávalosfor Encisoat 90'+2'

Orkun Kökçüfor Bardakçıat 86'

Jorge Canalefor Galarzaat 90'+2'

At this Stage

Two rounds in, Group D has one team done with arithmetic and three still doing sums. The USA sit on six from six, and the maths is already closed — nothing on the final day can drop them out of the top two, so the hosts are through. The scramble beneath is where this matchday earned its keep: Paraguay's ten-man win pulls them level with Australia on three points, the Socceroos holding second on goal difference, even against minus-two, while Türkiye stay pointless and on the brink after a second straight match of territory without reward. Only a win plus favours elsewhere keeps their tournament alive. The group's lesson so far is blunt: possession is a statistic, points are a currency — and Paraguay just showed which one clears.

Group D

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
USA	2	2	0	0	+5	6
Australia	2	1	0	1	+0	3
Paraguay	2	1	0	1	-2	3
Türkiye	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Top two (above the accent line) advance to the round of 32; the third-placed team is in the race for one of the eight best-third spots.

What we know now

What I said beforehand

The preview, frozen at kickoff. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the predictions worth anything.

Türkiye to win. Both sides lost their openers and treat this as a knockout, but Vincenzo Montella's hosts carry the greater attacking talent — Arda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and the returning Kenan Yıldız — and the comfort of a home crowd in Santa Clara. Paraguay are physical, well-drilled and dangerous on the counter through Julio Enciso and Miguel Almirón, so this need not be smooth, but Türkiye's quality in the final third should tell. 2-1 Türkiye.

Both cases written 2026-06-19, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 28% belongs to the draw.