Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group F
Tunisiavs
Japan
Sunday, June 21, 2026 · 12:00 a.m. ET · Monterrey Stadium (Estadio BBVA), Guadalupe (Monterrey)
Watch: FS1 · Telemundo
My pick: Japan win · locked 2026-06-20 09:12 UTCPrediction
Japan to win. Tunisia were taken apart 5-1 by Sweden in the heaviest World Cup defeat in their history, while Japan twice came from behind to earn a creditable 2-2 draw with the Netherlands. The Samurai Blue carry far more quality in the final third through Takefusa Kubo, Kaoru Mitoma's understudies on the flanks and Ayase Ueda up top, and Tunisia's fragile, reshaped back line is there to be exploited. Expect a Tunisian response and a tighter contest than the openers suggest, but Japan's class should tell. 2-0 Japan.
The case for Tunisia
22% to winTunisia can only improve on a chastening opening night, and a return to a back five should give them the defensive platform that was missing against Sweden. Ellyes Skhiri and Hannibal Mejbri carry the midfield, the Carthage Eagles are dangerous from set pieces, and a must-win narrative against a Japan side that conceded twice to the Netherlands gives them a fighting chance if they stay compact and take their moments.
The case for Japan
48% to winJapan are the group's most cohesive attacking side, pressing in coordinated waves and moving the ball quickly through Kubo, Daichi Kamada and Ritsu Doan. Having shown character to twice peg back the Netherlands, a win here would put them on the brink of the last 32. Against a Tunisia team low on confidence and short of a settled defence, Japan's tempo and technical edge should create the chances to control the game.
Both cases written 2026-06-20, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 30% belongs to the draw.
Tunisia 5-3-23-4-2-1 JapanThe briefing
Storylines
- Both sides are chasing a first win in Group F: Tunisia were thrashed 5-1 by Sweden, Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands.
- Tunisia's 5-1 loss was the heaviest World Cup defeat in their history, leaving their coach under pressure to rebuild the defence overnight.
- Japan twice came from behind against the Netherlands and are tipped to keep an unchanged side, with Takefusa Kubo their creative hub.
- Played at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, where heat and humidity could shape a late-night kickoff.
The coaches
Sabri Lamouchi Tunisia
The experienced French-Tunisian coach must steady the Carthage Eagles after a record defeat; favours a compact, counter-attacking shape anchored by a back five.
Hajime Moriyasu Japan
Long-serving Japan boss at his third World Cup; drills a high-energy press and quick transitions around a young, European-based core.
Availability
| Squad | Reshuffle expected after the Sweden defeat, but no major fresh injuries reported; the back line is the main selection question | Sports Mole / Squawka preview · 2026-06-20 |
| Squad | No fresh injury concerns reported; Moriyasu expected to keep the XI that drew with the Netherlands | Sports Mole / Squawka preview · 2026-06-20 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FS1 in English (stream on Fox One with a TV provider) and Spanish-language coverage on Telemundo or Universo (stream on Peacock); check local listings as the late kickoff can move to Universo. (NBC News / FOX Sports World Cup TV schedule, as of 2026-06-20)
Weather: Open-air at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey for a late-night kickoff — typically warm and humid in late June, around 80°F, with a chance of an evening shower. (SMN-Conagua seasonal norms (specific forecast not yet cleanly available), as of 2026-06-20)
Venue: Monterrey Stadium (Estadio BBVA), Guadalupe (Monterrey), Mexico — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.