World Cup 2026 pages
Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group F
Tunisiavs
Japan
0–4
Full time · Sunday, June 21, 2026 · 12:00 a.m. ET · Monterrey Stadium (Estadio BBVA), Guadalupe (Monterrey)
Result
Japan were ahead inside four minutes through Daichi Kamada, and Ayase Ueda's 31st-minute strike made it two by the interval. Junya Ito added a third after the break before Ueda headed his second to complete a 4-0 rout that lifted Japan above Sweden into second in Group F. Tunisia, beaten 5-1 by Sweden in their opener, managed just two shots and none on target as a second heavy defeat left them bottom of the group and facing elimination.
Substitutions
At this Stage
Two rounds into Group F, the pair who split the points on day one now split the summit. Japan's 4-0 dismantling of Tunisia — Kamada inside four minutes, Ueda twice, Ito in between — lifted them level with the Netherlands, 5-1 winners over Sweden, on four points and +4 apiece; the Dutch lead only on goals scored, seven to six. Sweden, so emphatic on matchday one, slid to third on three. For Tunisia the numbers read like a verdict: two defeats, one goal scored, nine conceded, zero points, bottom of the group and facing elimination. The 5-1 they took in the opener was the heaviest World Cup defeat in their history; the follow-up made it a trend. Japan wanted a response to Arlington and delivered a statement instead.
Group F
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Top two (above the accent line) advance to the round of 32; the third-placed team is in the race for one of the eight best-third spots.
What we know now
Venue: Monterrey Stadium
Attendance: 51,243
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen at kickoff. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the predictions worth anything.
Japan to win. Tunisia were taken apart 5-1 by Sweden in the heaviest World Cup defeat in their history, while Japan twice came from behind to earn a creditable 2-2 draw with the Netherlands. The Samurai Blue carry far more quality in the final third through Takefusa Kubo, Kaoru Mitoma's understudies on the flanks and Ayase Ueda up top, and Tunisia's fragile, reshaped back line is there to be exploited. Expect a Tunisian response and a tighter contest than the openers suggest, but Japan's class should tell. 2-0 Japan.
My locked pick: Japan win ✓ RIGHT
“Tunisia were taken apart 5-1 by Sweden on matchday one, while Japan earned a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands; the gap in quality and Tunisia's defensive fragility should hand Japan the points in Monterrey. Japan to win.”
Locked 2026-06-20 09:12 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
The case for Tunisia
22% to winTunisia can only improve on a chastening opening night, and a return to a back five should give them the defensive platform that was missing against Sweden. Ellyes Skhiri and Hannibal Mejbri carry the midfield, the Carthage Eagles are dangerous from set pieces, and a must-win narrative against a Japan side that conceded twice to the Netherlands gives them a fighting chance if they stay compact and take their moments.
The case for Japan
48% to winJapan are the group's most cohesive attacking side, pressing in coordinated waves and moving the ball quickly through Kubo, Daichi Kamada and Ritsu Doan. Having shown character to twice peg back the Netherlands, a win here would put them on the brink of the last 32. Against a Tunisia team low on confidence and short of a settled defence, Japan's tempo and technical edge should create the chances to control the game.
Both cases written 2026-06-20, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 30% belongs to the draw.
Storylines
- Both sides are chasing a first win in Group F: Tunisia were thrashed 5-1 by Sweden, Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands.
- Tunisia's 5-1 loss was the heaviest World Cup defeat in their history, leaving their coach under pressure to rebuild the defence overnight.
- Japan twice came from behind against the Netherlands and are tipped to keep an unchanged side, with Takefusa Kubo their creative hub.
- Played at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, where heat and humidity could shape a late-night kickoff.
The coaches
Sabri Lamouchi Tunisia
The experienced French-Tunisian coach must steady the Carthage Eagles after a record defeat; favours a compact, counter-attacking shape anchored by a back five.
Hajime Moriyasu Japan
Long-serving Japan boss at his third World Cup; drills a high-energy press and quick transitions around a young, European-based core.
Venue: Monterrey Stadium (Estadio BBVA), Guadalupe (Monterrey), Mexico — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.