Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group F
Japanvs
Sweden
Thursday, June 25, 2026 · 7:00 p.m. ET · Dallas Stadium (AT&T Stadium), Arlington, TX
Watch: FS1 · Universo
My pick: Japan win · locked 2026-06-24 10:01 UTCPrediction
Japan to win — or at least take the point they need. The Samurai Blue (four points) became the first Asian side to score four in a single World Cup game when they thrashed Tunisia, and a draw guarantees a top-two finish; better the Netherlands' result and they top the group. Sweden (three points) must win after being taken apart 5-1 by the Netherlands, and the Isak–Gyökeres partnership gives them a puncher's chance. But Japan's pace and pressing, even without the injured Wataru Endo and a doubtful Takefusa Kubo, look the stronger hand in Dallas. 2-1 Japan.
The case for Japan
45% to winJapan are flying after the 4-0 demolition of Tunisia and need only a draw to go through, perhaps as group winners. They press in waves, break at speed through Ritsu Dōan and Junya Itō, and have the composure to manage a game from the front. Even with injuries biting, the depth and cohesion that took them comfortably through qualifying should see them control this and reach the knockouts.
The case for Sweden
28% to winSweden have arguably the most fearsome strike pairing left in the group stage in Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, and a must-win scenario suits a side that looked dangerous before unravelling against the Netherlands. If Graham Potter unleashes Lucas Bergvall to drive midfield and the two strikers get service, Sweden have the firepower to win and gatecrash the top two at Japan's expense.
Both cases written 2026-06-24, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 27% belongs to the draw.
Japan 3-4-2-13-1-4-2 SwedenThe briefing
Storylines
- A draw sends Japan through and could win them Group F; Sweden must win to reach the knockouts.
- Japan became the first Asian side to score four goals in a single World Cup match in beating Tunisia 4-0.
- Sweden's Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres form one of the tournament's most potent strike partnerships.
- Captain Wataru Endo is missing the tournament for Japan and Takefusa Kubo is a knee doubt; played under the roof at AT&T Stadium in Dallas.
The coaches
Hajime Moriyasu Japan
Long-serving Japan coach who has the Samurai Blue pressing high and breaking at pace in a fluid 3-4-2-1.
Graham Potter Sweden
The English coach builds Sweden around a back three and the threat of Isak and Gyökeres, needing a win to rescue the campaign.
Availability
| Wataru Endo | Out — the captain is missing the tournament | Sports Mole / Yahoo Sports previews · 2026-06-24 |
| Takefusa Kubo | Doubt — nursing a knee injury picked up in the draw with the Netherlands | Sports Mole preview · 2026-06-24 |
| Squad | No fresh injury concerns; Lucas Bergvall expected to come into midfield as Sweden chase a win | Sports Mole preview · 2026-06-24 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FS1 in English (stream on Fox One with a TV provider) and Universo in Spanish (stream on Peacock); the free Tubi simulcast carries the Spanish feed. (NBC News / FOX Sports World Cup TV schedule, as of 2026-06-24)
Weather: Roof at AT&T Stadium in Dallas (Arlington) — a climate-controlled environment, no forecast needed. (Venue (retractable roof), as of 2026-06-24)
Referee: Ismail Elfath (USA). (FIFA match appointments via the World Cup officials list (ESPN / Yahoo Sports), as of 2026-06-24)
Venue: Dallas Stadium (AT&T Stadium), Arlington, TX, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
