Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group D
Paraguayvs
Australia
Thursday, June 25, 2026 · 10:00 p.m. ET · San Francisco Bay Area Stadium (Levi's Stadium), Santa Clara, CA
Watch: FS1 · Universo
My pick: Draw · locked 2026-06-24 10:01 UTCPrediction
Honours even — this is the tightest call of the matchday. Paraguay and Australia arrive level on three points, each having beaten Türkiye and lost to the USA, with Australia holding the goal-difference tiebreak (0 to Paraguay's -2). That maths matters: a draw would send Australia through, so Tony Popovic's side can afford caution while Paraguay, without the suspended Miguel Almirón, must find a way to win. Expect a cagey, nervy decider in the Bay Area. I'll call it a draw — which would break Paraguayan hearts. 1-1.
The case for Paraguay
33% to winParaguay have been gritty and organised under Gustavo Alfaro, beating Türkiye even after going down to ten men, and Gustavo Gómez marshals a back line that has conceded only to the USA. Losing the suspended Almirón hurts their cutting edge, but Julio Enciso and Diego Gómez carry enough quality to manufacture the win they need, and a partisan South American following will lift them in the Bay Area.
The case for Australia
33% to winAustralia know a draw is enough, and Tony Popovic's side are built to grind out exactly that: a back five anchored by Harry Souttar, disciplined midfield runners and a counter-attacking threat in the pace of Nestory Irankunda. They defended resolutely in their two games and, with the tiebreak in their favour, can sit in, frustrate Paraguay and either nick it on the break or see out the point that takes them through.
Both cases written 2026-06-24, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 34% belongs to the draw.
Paraguay 4-3-35-3-2 AustraliaThe briefing
Storylines
- A straight shootout for second in Group D: both on three points, with Australia holding the goal-difference edge, so a draw sends the Socceroos through.
- Paraguay are without leading scorer Miguel Almirón, suspended after his red card against Türkiye.
- Australia's Mathew Leckie is a muscle-injury doubt, with Cristian Volpato pushing to start.
- Played in the open air at Levi's Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area for the late kickoff.
The coaches
Gustavo Alfaro Paraguay
The Argentine has Paraguay hard-working and well-organised, set up to defend deep and strike on the counter.
Tony Popovic Australia
He has Australia compact and resilient in a back five, content to defend a result and break at pace.
Availability
| Miguel Almirón | Out — suspended after a red card against Türkiye; the squad's leading scorer is a significant loss on the right of attack | Sports Mole preview · 2026-06-24 |
| Mathew Leckie | Doubt — a muscle injury suffered against the USA leaves him in doubt, with Cristian Volpato in line to come in | Sports Mole preview · 2026-06-24 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FS1 in English (stream on Fox One with a TV provider) and Universo in Spanish (stream on Peacock); the free Tubi simulcast carries the Spanish feed. (NBC News / FOX Sports World Cup TV schedule, as of 2026-06-24)
Weather: Open-air at Levi's Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area for the late kickoff — mild, dry Northern California evening conditions. (NWS Bay Area seasonal climatology (specific forecast not yet cleanly available), as of 2026-06-24)
Referee: Clément Turpin (France). (FIFA match appointments via ESPN match info, as of 2026-06-24)
Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium (Levi's Stadium), Santa Clara, CA, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
